Realistic Expectations for Trey Lance in 2022

Is it realistic to expect Trey Lance to lead the 49ers to the Super Bowl next season?

That's what many feel he has to do to justify replacing Jimmy Garoppolo. The 49ers went to the NFC Championship with Garoppolo this season, ergo they must go one step further with Lance.

That seems unfair.

The 49ers roster will be much different next season than it was this past season. They will have more than 30 free agents, so it's possible Lance's supporting cast won't be as good as Garoppolo's supporting cast was in 2021 -- we don't know yet. Which means Lance could outplay Garoppolo and the 49ers still could fall short of the Super Bowl.

Here's how we should judge Lance.

He needs to play better than Jimmy Garoppolo next season. Garoppolo most likely will get traded and will be the starter somewhere else. If he outshines Lance in 2022, the 49ers will look like fools.

So it's fair to expect Lance to throw more touchdown passes than Garoppolo in 2022.

It's fair to expect Lance to play more games than Garoppolo in 2022.

It's fair to expect Lance to win more games than Garoppolo in 2022.

It's fair to expect Lance to throw fewer interceptions than Garoppolo in 2022.

It's fair to expect Lance to post a better passer rating than Garoppolo in 2022.

It's fair to expect Lance to run for more yards than Garoppolo in 2022.

It's fair to expect the 49ers to go further in the playoffs with Lance than Garoppolo's next team will go with him in 2022.

Expecting anything more is unrealistic.