The Jimmy Garoppolo Conundrum
Trey Lance is the future of the San Francisco 49ers and will be the only quarterback who matters long term. But at the moment, the 49ers have a $26.3 million quarterback ahead of him who is (kind of) considered the starter for the time being.
In the article I last wrote, I explained why Jimmy Garoppolo is too expensive for this team: he would make 13.5 percent of the salary cap this season, and no player ever has won a Super Bowl while being that expensive.
The 49ers have a Jimmy Garoppolo problem in 2021 and it could take many different paths. So I thought I would preview those potential pathways and how likely they are for you.
1. Jimmy Garoppolo is the starter for all of 2021
Likelihood: 15%
In order for this to happen, one thing HAS to be true - Lance is not ready to play quarterback in the NFL.
Given the reporting and media around Lance in the pre-draft process that he was “inexperienced,” this would not be surprising. While every 49ers fan has fallen in love with Lance since April 29, there were legitimate concerns that whichever team selected him would need to bench Lance.
This would also follow with what John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan communicated when the trade was made: Garoppolo IS the starter.
But it isn’t that simple with Garoppolo. In his past 48 available regular season games, he has played in only 25. Not just due to one specific injury or one body part, but rather a multitude of injuries in different parts of the body.
In 2018, on the longest run of his career, Garoppolo tore his ACL. In 2020, he dealt with a high ankle sprain all season. Even when he was in New England in 2016 and had to start 4 straight games, he only made it through one and a half due to an AC joint injury.
So would the 49ers be okay with Jimmy starting? Yes. But it’s best for the team for Lance to start sooner rather than later.
Given Garoppolo’s injury history, and all the team gave up for Lance, plus Garoppolo being inconsistent – the 49ers will want Lance to start.
2. Lance overtakes Jimmy as the starter midseason
Likelihood: 60%
Since 2011 (rookie wage scale era) 13 quarterbacks have been taken in the first three picks of the NFL draft. All 13 started at some point in their rookie season, with only one of those starting fewer than 12 games (Jared Goff, 7 games).
In the new NFL with rookies being paid so little (relatively speaking), it is unprecedented for a signal caller selected this high to sit on the bench for a season.
Most fans who are proponents of sitting Lance will tell you that Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers had to wait. But those teams did not invest the capital and resources that the 49ers invested in Lance and they had two legitimate starters ahead of those guys.
I would compare the Lance situation more to the Cowboys Dak Prescott/Tony Romo dilemma. Tony Romo got the Cowboys to a certain level of success and the team would have been terrible those years prior if not for him.
He was also beloved by the organization, front office, ownership and some fans just like Garoppolo is. Prescott had to prove beyond reasonable doubt that he gave them a better opportunity to win, Lance will have to do the same.
The 49ers may want Lance to play, but he also needs to win the job. Garoppolo is respected by his teammates, who never have seen Lance in live action.
3. Lance starts Week 1
Likelihood: 25%
NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo is communicating that given the right circumstances, Lance could start soon.
"If Trey Lance is lighting it up in the preseason and he's showing them day in and day out, maybe in practice and whatnot, they're going to make the change," Garafolo said. "And they're going to go to him when he's ready, no matter what Jimmy does."
It seems like it's Lance's job to lose, and he will determine when he plays based on what he shows in preseason and in practice.
If he is better than Garoppolo in practice and shows promise in the preseason, what would hold the team back from playing Lance?
Apparently the 49ers are more comfortable with the idea of Lance starting now, than they were when they drafted him. The momentum will only ramp up once Lance is practicing and playing preseason football.
