It seems the 49ers can get Deshaun Watson if they make the right offer.
Peter King's hypothetical seven-for-one trade is not the right offer. It's never smart to trade seven assets for one in a salary-capped football league. King should know that. But the 49ers can get Watson after June 1 by trading only a few assets.
A couple of the 49ers' best players become tradeable after June 1 -- George Kittle and Arik Armstead. If the 49ers trade those two BEFORE June 1, they would take on more than $38 million in dead cap space. But if they trade those two AFTER June 1, they'd take on only $9 million in dead cap space.
But the Texans probably don't want Kittle or Armstead. The Texans currently have only $6 million in cap space, and those two players are expensive. The Texans probably would prefer players who still are on their rookie contracts.
Which means they almost certainly don't want Jimmy Garoppolo and his $25 million salary-cap figure in 2021. No idea why King included him in his wacky seven-for-one hypothetical. The Texans would be much better off with a cheap veteran such as Andy Dalton, Ryan Fitzpatrick or Cam Newton.
The 49ers could trade Fred Warner to Houston, but the Texans already have a young stud inside linebacker -- Zach Cunningham. They don't need Warner.
What the Texans need is a pass rusher to replace J.J. Watt. Which means they should want Nick Bosa, the 49ers' most valuable trade asset. And if the 49ers trade Bosa after June 1, they'd take on only $5.6 million in dead cap and save $3.6 million in cap space.
So here's what the 49ers should offer the Texans for Watson:
1. Nick Bosa, as is. This deal would not be contingent on Bosa passing a physical, because he won't pass one until August or September.
2. The 49ers 2022 first-round pick.
3. A conditional 2023 pick. It starts as a fourth-rounder, but becomes a second-rounder if the 49ers make the playoffs in 2021 or 2022 and becomes a first-rounder if the Niners reach the Super Bowl in 2021 or 2022.
If the Texans can find a better deal, God love them. But I'm not sure they will. This is a terrific offer for them, and the absolute most the 49ers should hand over for Watson.
Make it happen.