The 49ers have a Real Chance to Beat the Saints
Eleven days to rest and prepare.
A 3-1 record on the road.
The 13th-ranked offense and 7th-ranked defense despite injury after injury.
The return of Trent Williams, Brandon Aiyuk and Kendrick Bourne.
A top-five play-caller on offense and a top-five play caller on defense.
The best middle linebacker in the game or close to it.
You better believe the 49ers will come to play this Sunday. But will they actually beat the Saints?
That all depends on third down.
When the Minnesota Vikings beat the Saints in New Orleans during last season’s playoffs, the Vikings won on third down -- they were 10 of 18 while the Saints were just 4 of 11 converting the money down. Game. Set. Match.
For the 49ers, head coach and offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan can scheme all the runs, screens, jet sweeps, end arounds, play-action passes and gadget plays he wants on first down and second down -- we’ve seen him call those plays before.
But on third down, Nick Mullens will have to make big-time throws.
Defensive coordinator can prevent big plays on first down and second down -- he does a good job preventing those, plus Drew Brees doesn’t throw downfield much anymore. He’s 41 and losing arm strength. But on third and 4, Brees can still throw the perfect five-yard pass that moves the chains. The Saints have the best third-down offense in the NFL. Stopping it ain’t so easy.
But there are reasons to believe the 49ers can hold their own on third down.
On offense, they won’t have Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel or Raheem Mostert, but they will have tight end Jordan Reed, who’s their best possession receiver when healthy. Last week was his first game back from a knee injury, and he played sparingly and got two targets. The 49ers wanted to work him back into the action gradually.
Just like the beginning of the season, when Reed missed most of training camp and wasn’t ready for a full workload Week 1. So the 49ers gave him just two targets against the Arizona Cardinals, and they lost. The next week against the New York Jets, Reed caught seven passes and scored two touchdowns, and they won. Look for a similar performance from him Sunday against the Saints. He should be a main feature of the 49ers offense game plan, as the Saints are sure to focus their attention on Aiyuk and Bourne.
On defense, the 49ers will have to stop Saints running back Alvin Kamara -- one of the best receivers out of the backfield in the league. But the 49ers match up well with him because their linebackers are fast.
The 49ers also have to stop Saints wide receivers Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, who run lots of slant routes and curl routes -- short stuff. And they have to stop tight end Jared Cook, the Saints primary deep threat.
Saleh needs to make Brees throw deep to Cook.
The 49ers can play man-to-man coverage to take away the quick slants to the wide receivers. And they can make Jimmie Ward cover Cook man to man and put Tarvarius Moore at free safety because he has the most range of the 49ers defensive backs.
Or the 49ers can play three-deep zone with man-to-man coverage underneath and a three-man pass rush. Pressuring Brees will be nearly impossible anyway -- the 49ers have no pass rush, and his quarterback rating vs. the blitz is 119. He wants defenses to blitz because he wants to throw quick, short throws.
The 49ers must take those away. Must make Brees hold the ball and throw low-percentage passes downfield.
The 49ers also can play three-deep, five-underneath zone coverage with a three-man rush. Dare Brees to scramble or force him to throw into congested eight-man coverages.
No matter what the 49ers defense does, it will struggle at times -- the Saints have all their playmakers on offense and the 49ers have no Nick Bosa, no Dee Ford and no Jaquiski Tartt.
But this game will be much closer than people expect, and it will give the 49ers the confidence to go on a run after the upcoming bye week and make the playoffs.
And yes, the 49ers will make the playoffs. I guarantee it.
FINAL SCORE: 49ers 27, Saints 28.
