Why the 49ers Should Think Twice About Drafting a QB in Round 1
The 49ers have to draft a quarterback with the No. 3 pick. That's what people keep telling me.
You can't trade three first-round picks plus a third for anything other than a quarterback, they say. And they have a good point. Quarterback is by far the most important position. It's hard to justify trading all those assets for a tight end.
But if the 49ers draft a quarterback with the third pick, they won't necessarily get a good one, or one who lives up to expectations. The past 20 years, roughly 7 out of every 10 quarterbacks drafted in Round 1 failed to live up to expectations. Which means the 49ers have roughly a 3 in 10 chance to get their franchise quarterback.
See for yourself:
FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS SINCE 2001 WHO LIVED UP TO EXPECTATIONS
1. Mike Vick
2. Carson Palmer
3. Eli Manning
4. Philip Rivers.
5. Ben Roethlisberger
6. Aaron Rodgers
7. Matt Ryan
8. Matthew Stafford
9. Cam Newton
10. Andrew Luck
11. Ryan Tannehill
12. Patrick Mahomes
13. Deshaun Watson
14. Josh Allen
15. Lamar Jackson
16. Kyler Murray
17. Justin Herbert
FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS SINCE 2001 WHO DID NOT OR HAVE NOT YET LIVED UP TO EXPECTATIONS
1. David Carr
2. Joey Harrington
3. Patrick Ramsey
4. Byron Leftwich
5. Kyle Boller
6. Rex Grossman
7. J.P. Lossman
8. Alex Smith
9. Jason Campbell
10. Vince Young
11. Matt Leinart
12. Jay Cutler
13. JaMarcus Russell
14. Brady Quinn
15. Joe Flacco
16. Mark Sanchez
17. Josh Freeman
18. Sam Bradford
19. Tim Tebow
20. Jake Locker
21. Blaine Gabbert
22. Christian Ponder
23. Robert Griffin III
24. Brandon Weeden
25. E.J. Manuel
26. Blake Bortles
27. Johnny Manziel
28. Teddy Bridgewater
29. Jameis Winston
30. Marcus Mariota
31. Jared Goff
32. Carson Wentz
33. Paxton Lynch
34. Mitchell Trubisky
35. Baker Mayfield
36. Sam Darnold
37. Josh Rosen
38. Daniel Jones
39. Dwayne Haskins
40. Tua Tagovailoa
The Niners need to think twice about spending the No. 3 pick on a quarterback, because the guy they take most likely will let them down. And the tight end they pass up, Kyle PItts, is the best tight-end prospect of all time and most likely will be better than George Kittle.
The Niners have some thinking to do.
