Why the 49ers Should Think Twice About Drafting a QB in Round 1

If the 49ers draft a quarterback with the third pick, they won't necessarily get a good one, or one who lives up to expectations.
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The 49ers have to draft a quarterback with the No. 3 pick. That's what people keep telling me.

You can't trade three first-round picks plus a third for anything other than a quarterback, they say. And they have a good point. Quarterback is by far the most important position. It's hard to justify trading all those assets for a tight end.

But if the 49ers draft a quarterback with the third pick, they won't necessarily get a good one, or one who lives up to expectations. The past 20 years, roughly 7 out of every 10 quarterbacks drafted in Round 1 failed to live up to expectations. Which means the 49ers have roughly a 3 in 10 chance to get their franchise quarterback.

See for yourself:

FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS SINCE 2001 WHO LIVED UP TO EXPECTATIONS

1. Mike Vick

2. Carson Palmer

3. Eli Manning

4. Philip Rivers.

5. Ben Roethlisberger

6. Aaron Rodgers

7. Matt Ryan

8. Matthew Stafford

9. Cam Newton

10. Andrew Luck

11. Ryan Tannehill

12. Patrick Mahomes

13. Deshaun Watson

14. Josh Allen

15. Lamar Jackson

16. Kyler Murray

17. Justin Herbert

FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS SINCE 2001 WHO DID NOT OR HAVE NOT YET LIVED UP TO EXPECTATIONS

1. David Carr

2. Joey Harrington

3. Patrick Ramsey

4. Byron Leftwich

5. Kyle Boller

6. Rex Grossman

7. J.P. Lossman

8. Alex Smith

9. Jason Campbell

10. Vince Young

11. Matt Leinart

12. Jay Cutler

13. JaMarcus Russell

14. Brady Quinn

15. Joe Flacco

16. Mark Sanchez

17. Josh Freeman

18. Sam Bradford

19. Tim Tebow

20. Jake Locker

21. Blaine Gabbert

22. Christian Ponder

23. Robert Griffin III

24. Brandon Weeden

25. E.J. Manuel

26. Blake Bortles

27. Johnny Manziel

28. Teddy Bridgewater

29. Jameis Winston

30. Marcus Mariota

31. Jared Goff

32. Carson Wentz

33. Paxton Lynch

34. Mitchell Trubisky

35. Baker Mayfield

36. Sam Darnold

37. Josh Rosen

38. Daniel Jones

39. Dwayne Haskins

40. Tua Tagovailoa

The Niners need to think twice about spending the No. 3 pick on a quarterback, because the guy they take most likely will let them down. And the tight end they pass up, Kyle PItts, is the best tight-end prospect of all time and most likely will be better than George Kittle.

The Niners have some thinking to do.