Time to Lance the 49ers' QB Boil
I’ll tell you one thing I didn’t do when I was 21, throwing redneck raves at my Golden God rental house just down the street from Arizona State University, where I ostensibly attended broadcast journalism school. I didn’t make a list of three girls that I found acceptable and hope one would fall to me if I just stood by the keg long enough.
No. I zeroed in on whomever I liked best. And I made my move. Won some, lost some. But girls and guys, can we not agree that in the real world? There’s always someone you like best, and seldom a list of three acceptable choices.
That’s why I don’t buy this talk from 49ers shot-caller Kyle Shanahan about any one of three draftable QBs being acceptable with regard to the third pick.
Sorry Kyle, you’re a little more alpha than that. Especially with that slick new Covid beard and the the manner in which you just strutted into this NFL Draft college house party. You just blew all of next year’s student loan check on a new fit. You’ve got a lollipop in your mouth, rocking vintage white on white 2001 Air Forces and a small jpeg hat. You’re a man in control of his own destiny. You aren’t looking for any of three acceptable prospects: you know who you want, you’ve made your move, and you’re ready to close the deal.
You’ve decided to draft North Dakota State University QB Trey Lance, and you’ve already game-planned out the post draft presser, in which you’ll rub the facts of the case right in the face of Quality Control journalist Grant Cohn. Let’s get right to it.
Who is Trey Lance?
Well, according to at least one senior NFL area scout, Lance is the best player in the Midwest this year with the potential to become a perennial top-5 NFL QB. (This is the same Midwest that includes Ohio State’s Justin Fields, who is apparently garnering 4th round grades from at least one NFL team.
Trey Lance is the guy who had arguably the best season in the history of college football. In 2019, as a redshirt Freshman, Lance led North Dakota State University to an undefeated 16-0 season and a Division 1 FCS National Championship.
En route, Lance put up simply unprecedented stats. In short, the guy won every game he started while producing 42 total touchdowns without a single turnover. Specifically, Lance accounted for 28 passing touchdowns and zero interceptions combined with 169 carries for 1,100 yards and 14 rushing TDs.
Scouts started to plan trips to Fargo. They liked what they saw: a polished, 6’3 235 pro style QB with a rocket right arm and the speed, agility and power of an All State Shooting Guard.
Lance ran a Bison offensive scheme that bore similarities to a traditional NFL system. He ran it well, obviously, given the undefeated National Championship season, during which Lance's polish, toughness, skill and hyper-quick processing speed were on display:
One play he’s trucking linebackers on a designed QB lead on the way to a 60 yard rushing touchdown...
The next? He’s feathering a 65 yard deep ball over the receiver’s shoulder and right into the bucket in a manner that would make Russ Wilson weep.
Unlike Ohio State's Justin Fields, Lance did not operate a spread offense. In fact Lance was under center more than 80 percent of the time, running a pro style offense that often resembled the work of Kyle Shanahan - a fact not missed by area scouts and pro personnel departments across the NFL.
In some cases, Lance ran plays directly out of the 49ers playbook. This play should look familiar to Niner fans.
You can add ESPN Draft Analyst Daniel Jeremiah to the list of Trey Lance admirers. During NDSU's Pro Day, Jeremiah posited that no draftable QB carried more pre-snap responsibility than Lance: NDSU's offense required Lance to call pass protection at the line of scrimmage; audible out of bad plays and into better ones; control the pre-snap motion game and adjust receiver routes pre-snap through a series of hand signals.
In addition to a demonstrated ability to master the cerebral portion of the game, Jeremiah simply feels that Lance is wired to win.
"With some players, you just know they're not going to fail. I had the same feeling about Josh Jacobs; you realize this guy has all the skills you need, plus he's wired the right way. I feel the same way about Trey Lance.”
- ESPN Draft Analyst Daniel Jeremiah
Where Did This Guy Come From?
Trey Lance emerged out of Marshall High School in Marshall, Minnesota - an all-but-forgotten town of 13,500 well separated from the beaten path of FBS scouts. Despite posting eye-popping numbers in his sophomore and junior campaigns, Lance simply wasn’t getting the attention of college scouts - and the scouts who did see him often attempted to talk Lance into a position change. Why the lack of interest in Lance as a QB?
Maybe it was because he wouldn’t give up basketball in order to focus on the 7-on-7 (pay-for-attention circuits). As a senior, Lance garnered All State honors at shooting guard, averaging 20 points and 7.5 boards per game while captaining his squad on an extended playoff run. Maybe it was the bloodlines: Lance’s father played DB in the CFL for several years after a successful collegiate career.
Eventually, Lance took matters into his own hands and began contacting his dream school: the Big Ten’s Minnesota Golden Gophers. He pestered the staff enough to earn an unofficial visit. According to Lance, it was on this visit that new Head Coach PJ Fleck offered Lance on one condition: he’d be playing safety. Lance declined.
By the time he arrived home, Lance noticed a funny thing had occurred: all the major recruiting services had changed his position from “QB” to “athlete”, a designation which greatly complicated Lance’s recruiting interaction with interested programs from that point forward. You can see why this could lead someone to lose faith in the recruiting process.
To be fair, Lance did receive multiple FBS offers:
- Iowa offered him. As a linebacker.
- Rutgers offered him. As a wide receiver.
- Multiple Group of Five schools offered him at quarterback: Boise State, Western Michigan and Northern Illinois among them.
But ultimately, Lance decided for a lower division school with a track record of producing draftable quarterbacks: North Dakota State University. Sure, it’s not the SEC…but take a look at NDSU’s recent history of placing QB’s in the league:
- Lance is destined to be a top 5 overall pick.
- Easton Stick went to the Rams in the 5th round, and prior to that:
- Carson Wentz went second overall to Philly, starting all 16 games as a rookie and reaching Pro Bowl status (and garnering some MVP chatter) in his second season.
It’s hard to find any university with a better recent track record than NDSU’s when it comes to developing draftable pro quarterback prospects, regardless of division. Lance was well positioned for his shot at blowing up on the big stage going into the 2020 season - the Bison had a signature matchup at the Oregon Ducks on the schedule. But then Covid-19 hit, and NDSU cancelled their season. Since then, Lance has been training with professional trainers and the usual coterie of NFL pre-draft quarterback whisperers.
Lance looked sharp at his recent pro day, at which the 49ers were notably absent. When asked Monday why the Niners didn’t attend Lance’s pro day, Kyle Shanahan basically said that the 49ers were afraid to tip their hand when they were stuck at the 12th pick, and that interest in a top QB from that draft position could throw a monkey wrench in their draft plans.
However, now that the Niners sit in the catbird’s seat, picking third behind the Jags and the Jets, Shanahan said he had no problem focusing openly on top QBs.
Accordingly, both ESPN’s Jeremiah and Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio have reported that the 49ers have recently engaged in multiple Zoom meetings with Trey Lance.
It’s worth noting that John Lynch was visibly present at Zach Wilson’s BYU pro day prior to the Niners nailing down the trade that allowed them to move from 12 to third overall without surrendering a single 2021 draft asset.
I guess the Niners weren’t concerned about appearing interested in Zach Wilson. Because that’s not Kyle’s target. There’s no list of three. There's a list of one.
Shanny has decided that the Niner QB room is a festering boil of injuries and underperformance that is holding back an otherwise Super Bowl-ready roster.
After diagnosing the malady, Shanahan self-prescribed a cure: It’s time to Lance that QB boil, let's operate.
Kevin Thomas Hulten is a journalist and consultant. Follow Kev @bigfacekev on Twitter and Instagram.
