How Giovani Bernard fits in the Bengals' running back room and why his days in Cincinnati could be numbered
It's impossible to tell the story of the last decade of Bengals football without including Giovani Bernard.
After seven seasons, Bernard ranks seventh all-time in Bengals rushing yards (3,281) and 19th all-time in receiving yards (2,512). He needs 501 receiving yards and three receptions to pass James Brooks for the most by a running back in team history. Should the Bengals ever construct a Ring of Honor, Bernard would get serious consideration.
His contributions as a strong pass blocker and scatback were invaluable during the Bengals postseason runs in the 2010s, but like so many of the pieces on those old rosters, Bernard is rapidly declining.
Over the last two seasons, Bernard's production and efficiency have cratered to dire levels. He's averaged four yards per carry or better in four of his first five NFL seasons. In 2018 it dropped to 3.8, before falling to a career-low 3.2 yards-per-carry.
The raw receiving production has torpedoed as well. From 2013-2017, Bernard averaged nine yards per catch. That mark fell to a career-low 6.2 in 2018. It did go up to 7.8 yards per reception last season.
Bernard has been allergic to the end zone, scoring just three total touchdowns over the past two seasons. He’s still a capable back, but the drop-off has been scary.
He is one of the more willing pass blocking running backs in the game.
Bernard has always been praised for his use of angles in the blocking game dating back to his time at North Carolina. That knowledge is valuable, but it's not worth $4.85 million per year, and that's a looming issue for the Bengals.
Bernard signed his current deal as a two-year extension last offseason, slotting him in as the 15th highest-paid running back in the league. The problem is his production and role in the offense don't come close to justifying that deal.
The former Tar Heel was a bottom-three player at his position last season in both of Football Outsiders major metrics. Bernard ranked 48th out of 50 qualified running backs in rushing DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) and 47th in rushing DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average).
His role in the passing game tells the same story, as he finished 49th in receiving DYAR, and 48th in DVOA.
That production might not even warrant the veterans minimum, let alone an upper echelon salary. This fall-off is a big dilemma for the Bengals, who are working on an extension for Joe Mixon. Should that deal get done and fall in the $8-10 million range as reports have suggested, they would be in the top 10 in money committed to the running back position.
For organizations like the 49ers and Ravens, it's crucial to spend that much on the running back room because their team identity is built on the ground, but the Bengals have top tier wide receivers and a highly touted quarterback. They aren't building the offense around the 1-2 punch of Mixon and Bernard.
Gio is like so many other Bengals trying to shake off one of the worst stretches in franchise history. Unfortunately for him, the financial impact doesn't line up with the on-field performance.
If he doesn't produce in 2020, the Bengals could release him prior to next season. He only has a $600,000 cap hit in that scenario.
The coaching staff has high expectations for Mixon. They expect him to be on the field even more in 2020, which makes it even harder to justify Bernard’s contract. The Bengals are 5-0 in Mixon's career when he plays with A.J. Green and gets 20 or more carries.
It's not rocket science. They are much better when their best players are on the field and Bernard isn't one of them.
The way this offense is constructed, combined with Mixon’s growing role makes paying Bernard top-15 running back money unjustifiable. His time in Cincinnati is filled with unforgettable moments, but the last two years have been rough and his future as a Bengal is murkier because of it.
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