Five reasons the Bills can take the Chiefs in their rematch
When the Bills fell at home to the Kansas City Chiefs, 26-17, three months ago, they were a different team, a team still in search of a defensive identity after so many personnel changes and injuries.
Sunday night, the teams will meet again with a Super Bowl berth on the line in Kansas City, and there are many reasons to believe the Chiefs can avenge that loss, which in many ways signified the end of the team they were for the first two months and the beginning of what they are now.
Here are five reasons the Bills can prevail in the AFC Championship Game.
1. They're healthier than they were then and have found a way to fit their defensive pieces together.
Injured linebacker Matt Milano was unavailable. So was tight end Dawson Knox.
One piece being out on defense may not seem significant. But consider that the Bills are 12-0 and have given up an average of 18.6 points in the games Milano has played this season. They're 3-3 with an average of 29.8 points per game allowed when he's missed.
2. The Chiefs' health may be worse.
The team continues to hold its breath that quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who was knocked out of last weekend's playoff victory over Cleveland with a concussion, will be cleared to play against Buffalo.
Rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who had a monster game (26 carries, 161 yards) against the Bills in the first meeting, continues to nurse a bad ankle. He was inactive against the Browns.
Right tackle Mitchell Schwartz and defensive end Taco Charlton are out for the year.
3. The Bills learned a lot about their opponents in the first meeting.
Their defensive game plan focused on dropping deeper and playing soft to keep passes from going over their heads. They knew they would be more vulnerable to the run, but it was something they felt was absolutely necessary against Mahomes and his explosive receivers.
"We'll have to find a balance, do a better job against the run than we did in that first encounter," defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier said.
The problem for the Bills' offense is that they couldn't make the Chiefs pay by playing the same way defensively against them. They failed to run the ball effectively, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry.
"It's a point of reference you can go back to, particularly the matchups and things like that, seeing how their guys play against your guys," offensive coordinator Brian Daboll said. "But it's just one step in the preparation process."
4. The Bills have learned even more about themselves since the first meeting.
There's no question the Bills are a different team since that day. Their only loss since then was the "Hail Murray" game in Arizona four weeks later, when quarterback Kyler Murray's desperation heave landed in the hands of DeAndre Hopkins in the end zone with 2 seconds remaining, lifting the Cardinals to a 32-30 triumph.
The Bills rebounded to close the regular season with six straight wins, holding opponents under 20 points in four of those contests.
5. They've learned how to win in the playoffs.
The Bills were up 16-0 on the Houston Texans in last year's wild-card round but couldn't close them out and lost in overtime.
They would not be denied two weeks ago in the same round, when they held off the Indianapolis Colts, then played a stronger game in the divisional round, where they wiped out the Baltimore Ravens, 17-3.
We came here with a vision," fourth-year coach Sean McDermott said. "Seeing it move forward, I guess, is the best way to say it. We're not there yet, but moving forward in the right direction is good to see and feels good."
More importantly, it gives the Bills the genuine feeling that anything is possible for this team.
Nick Fierro is the publisher of Bills Central. Check out the latest Bills news at www.si.com/nfl/bills and follow Fierro on Twitter at @NickFierro.
