Three Takeaways From Football Outsiders' 2020 Projections for Broncos
Football Outsiders released its DVOA projections for 2020 and the advanced analytics site didn't rank the Denver Broncos high, though its ranking doesn't tell the whole story.
On one hand, FO projected the Broncos to finish at -6.8 percent DVOA, or 26th out of 32 teams. On the other hand, that's actually a slight improvement where the Broncos finished last season in DVOA at 10.4 percent, though it was 23rd out of 32 teams.
In other words, while FO has the Broncos projected to finish the seventh-lowest among NFL teams, it expects the Broncos to be slightly better overall than last season.
On offense, the Broncos are projected to finish at -7.9 percent on offense, which is better than the -11.3 percent they finished at last year.
On defense, FO projects the Broncos to finish at -2.1 percent, slightly down from -2.8 percent last year. That's taking into account the loss of Von Miller for the season. Keep in mind, a negative DVOA is good for defense.
On special teams, FO projects the Broncos to finish at -1.0 percent, a slight improvement from -1.9 percent last year.
Though the Broncos aren't projected to rate high among the 32 teams overall, on offense (26th) or special teams (26th), they are projected to be improved. It's just that FO expects other teams to improve, too.
Furthermore, FO does expect the defense to be the Broncos' strongest unit. Even with Miller out, FO ranks the Broncos defense 11th overall and comparable to the defense last season.
Where the Broncos actually finish in DVOA remains to be seen. Consider that the Broncos were slightly better than some of FO's 2019 projections before that season.
Look at the 2019 projections, which showed the Broncos at -11.2 percent overall, -10.9 percent on offense, -1.0 percent on defense, and -1.4 percent on special teams. Though the Broncos' actual DVOA was slightly worse on offense and special teams, it was slightly better overall and on defense.
Of course, DVOA isn't the only way to measure a team's performance, but it can give you an indicator of what the measure expects in terms of a team's efficiency.
What it Means
Defense Can Still be Great: The Broncos will have to overcome the loss of Miller, but improved play from certain contributors on defense could help. The additions of Jurrell Casey and A.J. Bouye, a healthy Bryce Callahan, continued improvement from Alexander Johnson and the potential break out of Dre'Mont Jones could all boost the defense. And once Bradley Chubb is at full strength, the Broncos could push for a top-10 defense in DVOA.
Offense Will Improve: On offense, the obvious question is how Drew Lock improves throughout the season. It's worth noting the Broncos got better on offense when Lock took over last year, after struggling with Joe Flacco and Brandon Allen under center. The additions of Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler, and Melvin Gordon III are expected to help, too.
Special Teams Have Been Upgraded: Finally, we know special teams needed a lot of work last year, after Colby Wadman struggled with punting and Diontae Spencer had a slow start at returner. But Spencer improved throughout 2019 and should be more comfortable now, while free-agent addition Sam Martin is a clear upgrade over Wadman at punter.
Bottom Line
The Broncos may still be a work in progress — and that was before Miller got injured — but it's certainly possible the Broncos can outperform the DVOA projections. It might not be by a significant amount, but it could be enough to put the Broncos closer to the middle of the pack.
We'll know more about where the Broncos stand when they open against the Tennesse Titans Monday night.
Follow Bob on Twitter @BobMorrisSports and @MileHighHuddle.
