Advanced Football Metric can Hint at Whether Broncos Really Have a Future Franchise QB in Drew Lock
The Denver Broncos were on bye last week, thanks to events that all fans are aware of by now, but the unexpected break gives we at Mile High Huddle a chance to look at Football Outsiders' advanced metrics and how this team measures up.
First, I want to lead off about what Football Outsider's advanced metric — DYAR — indicates about quarterback Drew Lock.
All signs point to Lock returning to starting quarterback duties this week at New England. After his shoulder injury, the talk began about what the Broncos might have to do at the QB position depending on where the team finishes (I was among those people).
Of course, we need to measure what Lock does during the ensuing games, but we need to be careful about tools and metrics that we utilize to come to the right conclusion. On one hand, win/loss records for QBs can be misleading and shouldn't be the sole indicator of a player's performance. On the other hand, sites such as Pro Football Focus might not be examining a QB's performance the way it should.
But Football Outsiders' DYAR might be a better indicator of whether or not Lock is the guy to build around.
What DYAR Means
DYAR, or Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement, examines a quarterback's performance compared to replacement value, adjusted for opponent and situation, and translated into yardage. In short, it considers the total value of a QB, accounting for situations faced and the quality of opposition.
In 2019, Lock had a total DYAR of 138 in the five games he started. This season, in one full game and one-and-a-half quarters of another game, he has a DYAR of -5. (Note that all DYAR cited is for passing, not rushing, in case you inquire about anyone's rushing numbers.)
While a negative number isn't good, it's also a small sample size for Lock thus far. Arizona's Kyler Murray, for example, was in negative DYAR after two games, but he's since raised his total DYAR to 67.
On the other hand, the five games Lock played last year are a small sample size as well. But his tally is comparable to what Lamar Jackson had in 2018, with a 24 DYAR in seven starts
Of course, I wouldn't expect Lock to hit 1,261 DYAR like Jackson did in his second year in the league in 2019. But it's a sign that Lock has the potential to be the Broncos' franchise quarterback.
In looking at DYAR for quarterbacks since 2011 — when the rookie pay scale was introduced — the majority of quarterbacks who had positive DYAR for their first four years in the NFL proved to be quarterbacks to build around.
There are exceptions — Jameis Winston, for example, was not good overall in his final season in Tampa Bay, after showing some promise earlier in his career. On the other end is Buffalo's Josh Allen, who was in negative DYAR his first two seasons in the NFL (but improved in Year 2) and now has 549 DYAR through five games.
And busted first-round quarterbacks such as Marcus Mariota and Jake Locker, who posted positive DYAR early in their careers, may have been affected by injuries, which would explain the caution some have raised about Lock.
Right now, though, the sample size isn't big enough to truly judge Lock. The Broncos need to keep all options on the table, though, until Lock leaves little-to-no doubt that he's the guy to build around.
But if Lock can manage to post positive DYAR, along with either keeping games close or helping the Broncos win enough games to avoid a top-5 pick, the signs would point toward sticking with him for another year.
DVOA, the Broncos & the Opposition
Let's consider DVOA now. With four games played and adjustments made for opposition, the Broncos rank 31st overall, 30th in offense, 10th in defense, and 26th in special teams.
Part of the low-ranking offense can be traced to rolling with backup quarterbacks for 2.5 games, in which Jeff Driskel showed no pocket awareness and Brett Rypien, while quicker at getting rid of the ball, made more mistakes than he should have despite getting the win in Week 4.
On the other hand, the Broncos are doing better on defense than one may think. Despite the injuries, there are some young players who are stepping their game up, which is a good sign for future seasons.
Now consider the Broncos' opponents thus far. Per DVOA, the Broncos have faced the second-best overall team in Tampa Bay (who has the second-best defense), the ninth-best overall team in Pittsburgh (who has the seventh-best defense), and the 10th-best overall team in Tennessee (who has the fifth-best offense).
In other words, the Broncos faced three legitimate playoff contenders in the first three weeks and two of them were competitive games. Who knows how the Broncos would have fared against the Bucs with a healthy Drew Lock? But I at least imagine he doesn't take all the sacks that Driskel did.
The Patriots, who the Broncos play this week, are ranked 20th overall, which indicates they aren't as good as they've been in past seasons. New England is still a well-coached team, though, but with Lock returning to the lineup, there is room for optimism for a close game, and perhaps even a win.
As for the games coming after that, in overall DVOA, the Kansas City Chiefs are ranked fifth (second-best offense, ninth-best defense), the New Orleans Saints are ranked eighth (sixth-best defense), the Miami Dolphins are ranked 13th, the Carolina Panthers are ranked 14th (ninth-best offense), the Buffalo Bills are ranked 15th (seventh-best offense), the Las Vegas Raiders are ranked 21st (sixth-best offense but 31st-ranked defense), the L.A. Chargers are ranked 22nd and the Atlanta Falcons are ranked 25th.
There are some winnable games remaining on the schedule, so I don't think a 6-10 record is out of the question. Some opponents may be better than I expected, while others don't look as intimidating as they first appear.
Of course, what matters is what happens on the field. We'll know more about what the future holds for Lock, should he take the field this Sunday.
Follow Bob on Twitter @BobMorrisSports and @MileHighHuddle.
