Analytics Help Answer Why Broncos Underachieved in 2021
After the Denver Broncos finished 7-10 last season, general manager George Paton made some notable changes, from the hiring of head coach Nathaniel Hackett to the trade for quarterback Russell Wilson. Paton certainly had good reason to make changes, given that the Broncos underachieved in 2021, the last season for Vic Fangio as head coach.
Though the Broncos might not have been the most talented team, they are rightly called underachievers when you consider the projections Football Outsiders made about them before the start of the 2021 season.
Robert Weintraub looked back at the 2021 season to see which teams underperformed their projections and had the Broncos as one of five teams who were the biggest underachievers.
The Broncos ranked behind the Baltimore Ravens, who had multiple injuries to their lineup, and the Seattle Seahawks, who lost Wilson for several games because of a broken finger and had no pass rush.
However, there were still plenty of reasons the Broncos didn't hit their projection of 9.3, which could be viewed as nine or 10 wins depending on your viewpoint.
Weintraub cites multiple factors for why the Broncos may have underachieved. Among them:
- The Broncos were not good in the red zone, ranked 20th in red zone DVOA and 30th in red zone rushing DVOA — though they ranked fourth in red zone passing DVOA. Among the red zone miscues late in the season was a strip sack at the goal line against the Bengals, which arguably cost the Broncos the game.
- The Broncos ranked 20th in defensive DVOA and were middle of the pack in adjusted sack rate. They did have the ninth-best pressure rate, even after the Von Miller trade, but it wasn't enough given that not all those pressures translated into sacks. The Broncos were also middle of the pack in covering top receivers.
- Though Teddy Bridgewater had better DVOA and DYAR than Wilson did, his play at times did hold the team back.
The red-zone struggles would certainly top the list for Broncos fans, regardless of who was the starting quarterback. That's one area that should expect improvement this year should Wilson get the offense to the next level.
Getting back to Bridgewater, he's not likely to be the only person fans would blame. Plenty would blame former offensive coordiantor Pat Shurmur and his play calling, and others would point to Fangio and his game management overall.
Regardless, if the Broncos had managed nine or 10 wins, we might not have seen as many changes as were made. While it's likely the Broncos still seek another quarterback to replace Bridgewater, perhaps Fangio gets another year, though with a change at offensive coordinator (and special teams coordinator, for that matter).
But while we shouldn't continue to dwell on the past, we can learn from it. The Broncos need more production in the red zone and need more of those pressures to translate into sacks if they want a shot at the playoffs.
The one thing to keep in mind, of course, is that the AFC West, if not the AFC overall, will be loaded. Still, if the Broncos can hit the 10-win mark in 2022, one should expect a playoff trip out of that.
We'll find out this coming season whether the changes Paton made will get the Broncos back into playoff contention.
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