Analytics Suggest More than Half of Broncos' 2022 Draft Picks Will be Misses
The 2022 NFL draft is in the books, and the grades are flying in from every angle. Grades are fun, but they often don't give much insight into how these players will perform in the NFL.
Evaluating the Denver Broncos' past draft classes can give some insight. From an analytics perspective, we can understand the probability of each draft pick's “success” in the NFL by looking at how past players have fared at the same position selected in the same round.
For example, of the 40 edge rushers taken in the seventh round since 2009, none have been a primary starter for more than 50% of their time in the league. Taking an edge rusher in the last round has nearly zero probability of that player being a “hit” in the NFL. Yes, it is possible that they can be a role player, but it's unlikely that they'll ever be more.
With that framework, it's possible to assign a probability of the drafted player and determine whether it was a good selection at the spot taken regardless of the individual draft prospect analysis by the media.
So what do the analytics say about the Broncos' 2022 draft class?
I have analyzed every draft pick since 2009. The players drafted fall into three categories:
- An impact player (a player who has at least one All-Pro or Pro Bowl award).
- A primary starter (a player who has been the primary starter for more than 50% of his NFL career).
- A miss.
Using those categories, I have calculated the probability of success of each of Denver's 2022 draft picks by position for each round. For Rounds 2 and 3, it's important to look at the probability of those players becoming an impact player, while in the subsequent rounds, determining whether they become a primary starter is key.
After all, the first three rounds are where teams are supposed to find those impact players.
Round 2 | Pick 64: Nik Bonitto | Edge | Oklahoma
The edge position taken in the bottom of Round 2 has a probability 0.118 of become an impact player. This ranks fourth-best behind interior offensive line, wide receiver, and off-ball linebacker. Edge was definitely a need for the Broncos, but at a probability of 0.118, there is only a relatively small chance that Bonitto will become an impact player in the NFL.
Round 3 | Pick 75: Traded
This trade was a win by the front office because the Broncos only moved back five spots and increased the probability of selecting an impact player by 0.064 for any position by getting that extra fifth-round pick.
Round 3 | Pick 80| Greg Dulcich | TE | UCLA
Not only did the Broncos get value from trading back to this spot, they selected the position that ranks No. 1 in probability of becoming an impact player in Round 3. Based on history, Dulcich has a 0.231 probability of becoming that impact guy. This was the highest of any of the selections made by the Broncos.
Round 3 | Pick 96: Traded
The probability of selecting an impact player increased 0.064 from 0.117, another good value for this trade.
Round 4 | Pick 115: Damarri Mathis | CB | Pittsburgh
From a purely position-driven perspective, this is the Broncos' worst selection. Round 4 cornerbacks are second-worst of any position with a 0.07 probability of becoming a primary starter. Compare that to an off-ball linebacker at 0.25 selected in the same round, and there is much to be desired about this selection.
Round 4 | Pick 116: Eyioma Uwazurike | DL | Iowa State
Defensive linemen are in the middle of the pack of all positions with a 0.171 probability of becoming a primary starter when selected in the fourth round. However, it's more than double the previous pick and has a chance of being a factor in the seasons to come.
Round 5 | Pick 152: Delarrin Turner-Yell | S | Oklahoma
This was a good selection because the probability of a safety selected in Round 5 ranks third-best of all positions. The position carries a 0.167 probability of becoming a primary starter.
Round 5 | Pick 162: Montreal Washington | WR/PR | Samford
This selection was even better than the No. 152 in that wide receiver has the second-best probability of becoming a primary starter in the NFL when selected in Round 5 at 0.191. The Broncos did a nice job on the first two selections in the fifth.
Round 5 | Pick 171 - Luke Wattenburg | OL (Trade Up) | Washington
The Broncos traded up eight spots by using their final seventh-round selection as trade bait and their 179th pick in the fifth round. The value lost on this trade was minimal as the probability of finding a primary starter at any position decreased only 0.026. The draft selection of an interior offensive lineman was in the middle of the pack for probability of becoming a primary starter at 0.143. The trade up was not a bad value, but the selection of a different position, such as off-ball linebacker (0.193), would have really made this selection a great value and frankly, waiting until the sixth round for an interior lineman would have been the best bet.
Round 6 | Pick 206: Matt Henningsen | DL | Wisconsin
When teams are in the last two rounds, the probability of getting a primary starter is very low. Taking a defensive lineman here has one of the lowest chances of success with a probability 0.029, or highly unlikely. The more prudent tactic would have been to select a defensive lineman one round earlier and wait on the interior offensive lineman.
Round 7 | Pick 232: Faion Hicks | CB | Wisconsin
The likelihood of this selection becoming a primary starter is next to nil. There has not been a single cornerback taken in the seventh round who has been the primary starter for a team more than 50% of their seasons in the NFL.
The Takeaway
At first glance, the Broncos did not knock it out of the park like they did in the 2021 draft. Denver added value with some trades, but only selected four positions that are in the top half of probability of being a “hit” for the spot they were selected.
The analytics suggest that more than half of the prospects the Broncos drafted this year will likely be misses.
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