Broncos' QB Search: The Case for Baker Mayfield
Tuesday marked Day 1 of the 2024 Reese's Senior Bowl. This week's practices in Mobile, AL, offer the Denver Broncos the chance to get an up-close look at the 2024 class of seniors, especially the quarterbacks.
Rewinding back to Day 1 of the 2018 Senior Bowl, Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield was conspicuously absent. Initially. The former Heisman Trophy winner missed the weigh-in and the beginning portion of Day 1's practice due to an illness his mother was dealing with.
However, when Mayfield hit the grass mid-practice, the media in attendance watched as the entire North Team stopped what they were doing as whispers of "Baker" and "Baker's here" buzzed around the stadium. The Broncos coaching staff was in charge of the North Team that year, so Vance Joseph and company had plenty of opportunity to evaluate the enigmatic Mayfield.
At that point in time, Mayfield was viewed as a Day 2 draft prospect due to some of his antics and less-than-prototypical NFL size. Fast forward to Draft Day, and the Cleveland Browns ended up making Mayfield the No. 1 overall pick in the draft.
As rumors rip through Broncos Country, the reality is that the team is expected to part ways with Russell Wilson, which would create a massive void at quarterback.
Could Mayfield fill that vaccum? And would he be a good fit for Sean Payton? '
Holding the No. 12 overall pick in the draft and sitting $24 million over the salary cap currently, the Broncos are definitely in the quarterback market. The expectation is that Payton will leave no stone unturned in finding a QB in his image, with the most likely path to procuring a franchise guy being the draft.
But Payton's shining quarterback success story — future Hall-of-Famer Drew Brees — wasn't a match made in draft heaven. Brees was a free-agent acquisition of Payton's New Orleans Saints back in 2006. We can't rule out the possibility of Payton looking for his 'guy' this time around through the same avenue.
Enter Mayfield as a potential candidate.
Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports
The former Sooner had some success in Cleveland but eventually washed out after the GM who drafted him — John Dorsey — was jettisoned. The Browns traded Mayfield to the Carolina Panthers in 2022, who would go on to release the quarterback the same year.
Mayfield was claimed off waivers by the Matthew Stafford-less Los Angeles Rams, where he presided over an epic Christmas Day beatdown on the Broncos that precipitated the firing of then-head coach Nathaniel Hackett shortly thereafter. Mayfield hit unrestricted free agency last spring and ended up signing a one-year deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Mayfield would go on to produce easily his best season as a pro in Tampa, winning nine games and the NFC South crown while passing for 4,044 yards and 28 touchdowns, with 10 interceptions. Once again, he's poised to hit the open waters of unrestricted free agency. That is if the Bucs don't find a way to re-sign him first.
At 28 years old (he'll be 29 in April), Mayfield is sure to command a hefty contract and no shortage of potential suitors this time around. He could get upwards of $30 million per year, which, as things currently stand in Denver, would put him out of Payton's reach.
But the Broncos haven't gotten started yet on making the moves necessary to become cap-compliant and even create some cap space. The NFL's new league year doesn't open until March, so if the Broncos had designs on Mayfield or any veteran QB, there's plenty of time left to maneuver.
Should the Broncos pursue Mayfield, though?
My answer is no. It's time the Broncos landed a franchise quarterback the old-fashioned way — through the draft. And the most recent rumors suggest that Payton is poised to maneuver up the draft board to secure one of the top guys.
But there's no guarantee Payton will find a taker willing to part ways with a top-3 pick — which is what it would take to land one of the consensus 'Big 3' quarterbacks. To wit: USC's Caleb Williams, UNC's Drake Maye, and LSU's Jayden Daniels.
There's an argument to be made that neither Williams nor Daniels fits the Payton QB prototype. Maye could, as well as Oregon's Bo Nix and maybe even Washington's Michael Penix, Jr., but some draft experts believe that as many as five quarterbacks could be drafted before the Broncos even go on the clock at No. 12. Thus, Payton has until March 13 to make those calls and try to work out a trade package to move up the board.
If the Broncos are unsuccessful in that effort — there are a lot of QB-needy teams ahead of them in the draft this year — Payton may have no choice but to go the veteran route and sign a free agent. Again, though, as things currently stand, the Broncos don't have the cap space to compete for Mayfield's services.
That could change, though.
I could see Mayfield fitting well with Payton, even if he's not the perfect, ideal match. Brees was 6-foot-0 and 209 pounds. He was a very cerebral quarterback who got the ball out on time and served as more of a point guard running Payton's scheme, distributing the ball to where the matchups dictated.
Payton could count on Brees to keep the offense on schedule. Mayfield, on the other hand, is a lot more of a gunslinger and creator under center, but he's also shown the propensity for being a disciplined rhythm passer under the right coaching. I could see Payton's influence molding Mayfield into a great steward of his offense, with the added ability to go off script when the situation dictated.
Brees didn't offer much in that department. If he didn't recognize something pre-snap and change the play, if things unraveled, he was more likely to throw it away or even take a snap than he was to suddenly break the pocket and make something happen with his legs.
Mayfield is 6-foot-1 and 215 pounds, so size-wise, he lines up with Brees. Mayfield, obviously, plays with a lot more swagger, but again, the right coaching has proven able to channel that into positive outcomes.
I'll tell you this: Mayfield would be a significantly better veteran option to roll with than, say, Sam Darnold — a name that began floating around the Broncos rumor mill last week. Both were 2018 top-3 draft picks, but Darnold has given NFL teams no reason to believe he's cut out for anything more than a backup role.
Could Mayfield be Denver's future franchise quarterback? It's possible he could be one of the exceptions that proves the rule, which is that there's no such thing as a free-agent franchise quarterback. That would be his ceiling in Denver, unlikely though it would be.
When it comes to Mayfield's floor, he could offer a team like Denver a two or three-year window to continue rebuilding the roster while staying competitively relevant. If/when the Broncos reached the limits of Mayfield's ability to deliver, they could then go back to the well and draft a quarterback.
Bottom Line
After years of going the veteran band-aid route at quarterback, with one reclamation project after another coming and leaving the Mile High City, it's high time the Broncos went back to the draft well. And the team's financial situation could be the ultimate deciding factor.
Everything about Denver's 2024 outlook screams rookie contract when it comes to the quarterback position. But considering Payton's history, Mayfield's reemergence on the scene as a bonafide NFL starter, and relative fit, we can't rule out the possibility of Denver pursuing him quite yet.
For the Broncos, the probability scale remains heavily weighted on the QB/draft avenue, no doubt.
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