Best QB Options for 2021 if Broncos Aren't Sold on Drew Lock
For the past few weeks, there's been a lot of talk about what the Denver Broncos are going to do at quarterback — if Drew Lock leaves too many doubts that he's the guy.
After Sunday's performance against the Carolina Panthers, Lock did plenty to silence some doubters. There are still three games left to play, though, so it's anybody's guess what happens from here.
Still, if people are convinced that the Broncos need to acquire another quarterback, the question is: What really makes sense?
Let's go over the top options that have been mentioned thus far and look at the real cost of making these moves.
Trade for Matthew Stafford
With rumblings that the Detroit Lions may be prepared to move on from Stafford, he's become a popular option for some Broncos fans to acquire in a trade.
Regardless of what you think of Lock, trading for Stafford screams "quick fix." And that's a problem.
You won't be getting Stafford for a fourth-round pick like the Broncos did with Joe Flacco. Stafford is going to be viewed as a guy with plenty of football left in him, whereas Flacco was clearly in decline.
Therefore, teams are going to give up much more in draft pick compensation for Stafford. It wouldn't surprise me if the Lions ask for a first-round pick, and might be able to squeeze a second-round pick, plus an additional pick, out of teams.
Verdict: That's just too much to justify trading for Stafford, especially with the Broncos possibly drafting in the top-10. Better to save that draft capital than trip over yourself for a quick fix.
Trading for Sam Darnold
This is another option that's been mentioned by a few people. Unlike Stafford, it might make sense to trade for Darnold, because he would be on a cheap salary and an upgrade over Brett Rypien as a backup.
Darnold could also give the Broncos somebody who could push Lock in training camp, and perhaps be a fallback option if Lock doesn't play well in 2021.
However, the Broncos shouldn't rush into a trade. The New York Jets aren't going to get a first-round pick for Darnold, but could hold out hope for a third-round pick if a trade is made before the 2021 Draft.
Verdict: It's better to wait until after the draft, to get the Jets to lower their asking price. A fifth-round pick in 2022, which could become a fourth-rounder if Darnold plays a certain percentage of snaps, might be worth considering.
But if the Jets still ask for too much, don't bother.
Trading for Carson Wentz
Few Broncos fans have brought up Wentz, no doubt because he has been bad this season. However, anyone entertaining the idea needs to hit the brakes.
A team that trades for Wentz will have to commit to him for $25.4 million in 2021. What's more, Wentz gets $15M of his $22M base salary in 2022 fully guaranteed on March 15, 2021.
Furthermore, don't think for one minute that the Philadelphia Eagles will have to do a trade like the Houston Texans did Brock Osweiler, in which they sent a second-round draft pick to the Browns to complete the trade. Osweiler was buyer's remorse after one season, while Wentz was a guy the Eagles honestly wanted to commit to, but few could have predicted his collapse this year.
Additionally, if the Jacksonville Jaguars were able to find a buyer for Nick Foles when he had a lot of guaranteed money due, the Eagles are going to expect something in return for Wentz.
Verdict: If you are somebody who thinks the Broncos should acquire Wentz, scratch that thought.
Sign a Veteran
This is a better option for the Broncos than trading for somebody. Get a veteran at the right price, somebody who is a better player than Jeff Driskel, and you have some peace of mind.
The question to ask is, which veteran may be willing to sign with Denver? Let's go over a few names, whether they would be a backup or want a chance to start.
Dak Prescott | Dallas Cowboys: It's not a question of whether the Broncos are willing to pay him — it's simply a matter of Prescott will want to start, period. Furthermore, a team like Washington, the Niners or even the Patriots could woo Prescott away — that is, if the Cowboys don't franchise him again.
Jacoby Brissett | Indianapolis Colts: Because Brissett's ceiling is that of a backup who can start when needed, I wouldn't say no to him. However, he needs to come on a cheap deal. I suspect he'll be seeking a fair amount of money, though, even as a backup.
Philip Rivers | Indianapolis Colts: It wouldn't surprise me if he retires. Even if he doesn't, I don't see him taking a backup role — he'll probably want one more season as a starter.
Mitchell Trubisky | Chicago Bears: He's probably going to be like Marcus Mariota in free agency, and Mariota got $7.5M guaranteed from the Raiders this season. That's more than I'm willing to pay for a backup.
Tyrod Taylor | Los Angeles Chargers: He's at the stage of his career in which he's going to have to be a backup. As with Brissett, though, it needs to be a cheap deal.
Ryan Fitzpatrick | Miami Dolphins: No doubt Fitz would be a great choice as a backup, but he's sure to be in demand and drive his asking price up — assuming he doesn't retire because he'll turn 40 next season.
Andy Dalton | Dallas Cowboys: It's clear he's nothing more than a backup at this point and he will likely come cheap.
Cam Newton | New England Patriots: The Broncos didn't sign him this past offseason, and I suspect it's because Newton wanted the chance to start. It remains to be seen if that will still be the case this offseason, and if he's okaywith being a backup, what his asking price will be.
Jameis Winston | New Orleans Saints: The Saints got him for cheap, but extended Taysom Hill and now seem to think of him as the top backup. Winston probably hits the open market in 2021. However, it wouldn't surprise me if Winston will be like Teddy Bridgewater and sign with a team where he gets the chance to start.
The Dregs
The rest of the field includes perennial backups such as AJ McCarron, Colt McCoy, Robert Griffin III, Matt Barkley, and Blaine Gabbert. None of them should be in line for big contracts.
In summary, if the Broncos go the free agency route, they should only go after a top backup at the right price. Otherwise, wait out free agency and sign somebody cheap, rather than tripping over yourself to get somebody like Driskel early and have to commit fully guaranteed money in the process.
Draft
This may be the best option for the Broncos to consider, though it all depends on how they finish the season, as to when it's time to get that quarterback.
If the Broncos finish 8-8 for the season — and it's still possible that could happen —the Broncos should wait until the third round. They would then be looking for somebody who is an upgrade over Brett Rypien as a backup, who might be able to step into the lineup if Lock struggles.
If the Broncos finish 6-10 — a record that may be more likely if you think they come up short against the Bills and Raiders, both of who are contending for the playoffs — then you probably want to look in the second round.
As for the first round, I don't know if the Broncos will find a player who is truly an upgrade over Lock, unless they finish 5-11 and a number of teams win enough games to put the Broncos in the top-10. Even then, I'm not sold on the idea that a quarterback at that point is going to be a true upgrade.
I don't think the Broncos should skip drafting a quarterback entirely — at the very least, they need to have worthy competition for the backup spot, even if Rypien showed promise. But Broncos fans might want to hit pause on the idea of taking one in the first round, especially if the Broncos manage to win the final three games and Lock plays as well as he did against the Panthers.
Bottom Line
I'd definitely rule out trading for any quarterback, unless it's Darnold, and then, only after the draft and at the lowest possible price.
But the better option is to either look in free agency and sign a veteran backup at the right price, or draft another quarterback on Day Two.
Which option I go with depends on what Lock does in the final three games. If he plays well, the Broncos might be able to grab two, even three, wins, to close the season.
Regardless of what Lock does, going for the "quick fix" isn't the answer. Skip the likes of Stafford and Wentz, and seek other options that let you keep 2021 draft capital.
Follow Bob on Twitter @BobMorrisSports and @MileHighHuddle.
