Hall-of-Fame GM Bill Polian Predicts Big Things for Vic Fangio's Defense in 2020
Vic Fangio's defensive scheme is complex. It can take some players a little longer to assimilate it and play with abandon on the field without thinking so much.
You know what they say about sports, but especially football; if you're thinking out there on the field, odds are, you're not playing up to your potential. The goal for any NFL player, and this goes for the Denver Broncos, is to master a playbook so that on the field, there's no 'buffering' period. It's all about reading, reacting, and playing instinctually.
Because the Broncos players will have had two offseasons and a full season of Fangio's scheme under their belt, there are those around the NFL who believe this defense could really take a leap forward in Year 2. One Hall-of-Fame former general manager — Bill Polian — sees the Broncos not only being really good in 2020 but perhaps even better than good.
But as good as the Broncos might be defensively, Polian also points out that much depends on Drew Lock and the offense to carry their share of the water, specifically against juggernaut opponents like the Kansas City Chiefs. In a conversation with 104.3 The FAN's Stokely and Zach show on Thursday, Polian not only hinted at big things for Fangio's defense but addressed the elephant in the room; if the offense doesn't bring the thunder, it could all be for naught in the potent AFC West.
"In the playoffs, late in the season when the games are really meaningful in the division, you have to have the kind of firepower that can win shootouts," Polian told hosts Brandon Stokely and Zach Bye. "I don't care how good Vic's defense is, and it's going to be really good, it's going to be really good, and it may border on great if he's able to get the right components in place because he's really an outstanding defensive coach. But you're going to have some shootouts with the Chiefs. That's just the facts. Houston was up 17-zip, right? Boom. In a wink of an eye, it was gone. So you have to have firepower across the board."
As an HoF GM, any time Polian weighs in with a prediction, people tend to prick their ears up and take heed. Throw in his working experience with Fangio, and it's safe to say that he knows what he's talking about when he calls him an "outstanding" coach.
Fangio served as Polian's defensive coordinator from 1999-2001 under then-head coach Jim Mora (yes, he of the ubiquitous 'Playoffs?? Playoffs?' sound bite). Fangio worked directly under Polian's purview for three seasons, coaching up the players the GM hand-picked in the draft.
Fangio is considered by some to be one of the greatest defensive coordinators in NFL history, similar to ex-Broncos fave Wade Phillips. Fangio's former boss in San Francisco, Jim Harbaugh, is one of them.
“I think he’s one of the all-time best defensive coordinators in the history of the league,’’ Harbaugh said upon arriving San Francisco. “I think that’s who he is. I think that’s what his legacy will be someday."
Last year, the Broncos finished as the No. 12 defense in total yards but cracked the top-10 in scoring, allowing 19.8 points per game. It was good for No. 10 ranking in the NFL.
However, where Fangio's unit really thrived in Year 1 in Denver was in the red zone. The Broncos finished No. 1 in red-zone defense, allowing only 39.1% of opponents' possessions inside the 20-yard line to be converted into touchdowns.
Scoring and red zone defense — those were the only two statistical categories in which the Broncos finished top-10 in 2019. When Fangio left the Chicago Bears, he'd taken them from starting as the No. 16 defense in 2015 to No. 1 in seven major statistical categories in 2018.
It takes time for a new system to sink in with players. It takes time for team to cultivate the right players for the scheme, hence Polian's comment about Fangio getting "the right components in place".
With all that in mind, it's not outside the bounds of the plausible to expect Fangio's defense to take a massive leap forward in Year 2. Von Miller will be itching to bounce-back from his worst full season as a pro, Bradley Chubb will be back from his ACL tear, as will CB Bryce Callahan, who missed all of 2019.
Throw in an expected leap forward from young players like Justin Simmons, Alexander Johnson, and Dre'Mont Jones, as well as a few well-place veterans like Kareem Jackson, Todd Davis, Shelby Harris and newcomers Jurrell Casey and A.J. Bouye, and the Broncos could be one of the most dominant defenses in 2020.
It looks good on paper and if tradition is any harbinger of the future, then Fangio's Broncos are very likely to leap forward defensively in Year 2. But games aren't won on paper, but rather, the grid-iron.
Something tells me that football reality is not lost on Coach Fangio, which is why he corrected course in January, firing Rich Scangarello and hiring Pat Shurmur to serve as offensive coordinator. Fangio's now got a full year under his belt of calling defensive plays from the sideline instead of the box. It was evident that he got better in that department last season as the schedule wore on.
With 2020 draftees like CB Michael Ojemudia, DL McTelvin Agim, and LB Justin Strnad, the defense is quickly being remade in Fangio's image and he might have those components Polian spoke of. If Lock and Shurmur's offense can cash in on even a portion of the potential they have, Fangio's defense will be playing with a lead more often, which will allow the predatory elements of his scheme to really come to the surface and stand out.
There will be games where Lock will have to go blow-for-blow with titans like Patrick Mahomes and Drew Brees and fight fire with fire. The defense won't be able to carry all the water on those days.
It's going to be fun to see how it shakes out. But don't dismiss the sage words of Polian, the architect of the Buffalo Bills dynasty (of sorts) in the 1990s and of the Colts under Peyton Manning. The savvy personnel czar knows what he's talking about.
Follow Chad on Twitter @ChadNJensen and @MileHighHuddle.
