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Broncos Cautioned About 'Opportunity Cost' of Passing on Oregon QB Bo Nix
The Denver Broncos might not be in a position to look a gift-horse in the mouth if Bo Nix falls to them at No. 12 in the NFL draft.
For months now, Oregon quarterback Bo Nix has been linked to the Denver Broncos in the 2024 NFL draft. Nix has been compared to Drew Brees, and the Ducks signal-caller has the unique combination of traits that Sean Payton covets for his offense: a quick processor and an accurate arm.
Nix also happens to be the most experienced quarterback in the 2024 draft class. The Broncos hold the No. 12 overall pick this year, but almost universally, he's not viewed as the 12th-best prospect in the class.
There's the rub. To boot, many insiders view the Broncos' QB situation as the worst in the NFL. The Broncos have little choice but to add a quarterback in this class. The question is how and where, not if.
Worth pondering is this: if the Broncos aren't able or willing to trade up for a more toolsy QB in this class, is Payton going risk 'over-drafting' or 'reaching' on a player just because the team has an enormous hole at the position?
ESPN's Field Yates cautions the Broncos about dismissing the "opportunity costs" of passing on Nix at No. 12. Or Washington's Michael Penix Jr., for that matter, who visited the Broncos facility earlier this week.
“I think this is one of those where the opportunity cost is too good for Denver to pass up on taking a quarterback,” Yates said on Wednesday.
Fresh off unveiling his latest first-round mock draft, Yates is spitting the truth. The Broncos find themselves in a unique situation where need and value don't necessarily line up in the first round.
However, if the Broncos drafted Nix, and Payton went on to forge him into a franchise-caliber quarterback, nobody would be looking back on the 2024 draft saying that it was a reach. Based on the outside view of Nix within the draftnik community, it looks like a potential reach.
But for all we know, the Broncos have Nix graded much higher than the draftniks in the media. He lacks some arm strength, but Nix brings a lot to the table in a very Payton-specific way.
Here's what Yates said about Nix-to-Denver when he picked him at No. 12 for the Broncos in the mock draft ESPN released earlier this week.
"The clock is ticking for the Broncos to address the quarterback room -- they currently have only Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci on the roster, and there are few remaining available options to boost the depth outside of the draft. With four quarterbacks off the board, the Broncos must act urgently. They don't have a second-round pick this year, making any sort of move up the board difficult to pull off. So I instead have them taking my QB5 despite him being the No. 37 prospect on my board.
"Nix's accuracy and processing speed would appeal to coach Sean Payton, as he finished his college career by completing 77.4% of his passes in 2023 -- an FBS single-season record. His tape was impressive to watch."
We'll find out soon enough what Payton and the Broncos have planned. The NFL draft is less than three weeks away, kicking off on April 25.
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