Breaking Down Broncos' Offseason Priorities at Each Position
With four games left, the Denver Broncos will have to start thinking about the offseason and the decisions to be made.
Throughout this season, I've talked about some of the decisions the Broncos will have to make, and there will be more to come in the days and weeks ahead.
But with four games, it's a good time to examine the roster and figure out which players may or may not be back in 2021, and how best to address particular positions.
Let's go over each position group and focus on the most notable players.
Quarterback: Drew Lock has been inconsistent this season and there's debate as to whether or not he should get another season to prove himself. The Kansas City Chiefs game this past Sunday was another outing in which Lock showed he can look really good one play, then look downright awful the next.
This begs the question: If there are any doubts of whether Lock is clearly the guy to build around, what do you do next?
The best bet may be for the Broncos to draft a quarterback to compete with Lock for the job, given that the 2021 QB draft class is deep. A trade might make sense, but it's best to buy low and not get tied into a lot of money. In other words, maybe you acquire Sam Darnold if you don't give up too much for him, but think twice before you entertain the idea of acquiring Matthew Stafford.
As for the backup position, the Broncos can safely cut Jeff Driskel, who has no guaranteed money left. Cutting him saves $2.5M in cap space. The Broncos are then left with Brett Rypien, who has shown he can be a capable backup.
It might be worth retaining Blake Bortles on a one-year deal at the veteran minimum, but that's as high as I would go for him. The Broncos could consider other veterans, too, but they need to be at a low cost.
Running back: As of this writing, Melvin Gordon's DUI case hasn't been adjudicated, and until it is, we won't know when he will serve his suspension. What we do know is that, whenever he serves the suspension, he won't get paid for those games he misses.
Fully guaranteed money in a base salary doesn't get paid to a player if he's suspended by the team or league. For Gordon, he would lose out $62,500 per game if his suspension is this season, but if it's applied to next season, he loses $281,250 per game because his 2021 base salary is $4.5M, as opposed to $1M this season.
For anyone still wondering if the team can void his deal because of the DUI, it's an option, but one I doubt the Broncos take because it would set a precedent. They would have to void anybody's deal for a DUI in the future, regardless of how well he played, lest they leave the impression that player performance, not the DUI, is the real motivation behind voiding a deal.
Gordon has made plenty of mistakes this season, but he's had his share of good games, too, with this past Sunday's Chiefs game easily his best performance of the season.
Regardless, expect Gordon to be back in 2021, but it's possible his suspension is served next season if his court case isn't adjudicated soon.
Phillip Lindsay is almost certain to get the second-round restricted free agent tender, while Royce Freeman isn't likely to see the escalators available to third-round picks because he hasn't played enough snaps for them to kick in. If so, Freeman may stay for the time being.
Wide receiver: With Courtland Sutton returning from injury, and with Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler likely to have their spots locked atop the depth chart, that means depth is the primary concern for the Broncos.
Tim Patrick will be a restricted free agent and I'm still of the opinion that he should get the second-round tender, but give him permission to seek a trade. I'll have more in a future article, but his value is higher than it's ever been, and with him likely wanting a chance to start, the Broncos would be better served to trade him if at all possible.
Otherwise, it's about finding another receiver for depth, and one who can return punts and kicks, so there's more competition to challenge Diontae Spencer, who will be an exclusive rights free agent.
Tight end: Nick Vannett had a poor start to 2020, but he's played better as of late. Still, the Broncos might be prepared to cut him and save $2.7M in cap space if they think they can find an upgrade in free agency.
If they don't, the Broncos could still cut him after the draft if they add another blocking tight end there. Keep in mind Vannett's 2021 salary isn't guaranteed, so it's safe to keep him until after the draft.
Jake Butt will be a restricted free agent, for reasons I've already explained, but I'm not expecting him to be retained. As for Noah Fant and Albert Okwuegbunam, their spots should be secure.
Offensive line: The Broncos have extended Garett Bolles, so that's one priority out of the way. Graham Glasgow will be back as well, with the Broncos at least committed to him through 2021.
Ja'Wuan James, who opted out of 2020 because of COVID-19 concerns, will also be back and the Broncos will move forward with him at right tackle. However, with Elijah Wilkinson and Demar Dotson hitting free agency, the Broncos will need to find a swing tackle.
Dalton Risner and Lloyd Cushenberry will also return, with the hope that they can keep improving in 2021. However, it wouldn't hurt to add a cheap, veteran interior offensive lineman in free agency who can push them during the offseason.
Defensive line: The main question the Broncos will have to ask is who is going to be the veteran option for the defensive line. And after this past Sunday's game, there's more than enough for me to say that Shelby Harris needs to be that veteran.
The Broncos should work toward an extension for Harris that keeps him for at least the next two seasons, though with nothing guaranteed after that. In doing so, that means they will need to cut Jurrell Casey to save $11.8M in cap space.
DeMarcus Walker will also hit unrestricted free agency, but he will likely be allowed to test the market. There's a chance he could be retained as a depth player, if he doesn't find a better deal elsewhere.
Edge rusher: I expect Von Miller to be back in 2021 and I don't expect the Broncos to ask him to take a pay cut. On the other hand, I don't expect the Broncos to talk about an extension, because they'll want to see what he does on the field next season, before entertaining extension talks.
There's debate as to whether or not to exercise Bradley Chubb's fifth-year option, because it will be fully guaranteed. However, the cost will now be determined based on percentage of snaps played and overall performance, so who knows how Chubb missing most of 2019 will factor into the cost.
Regardless, it makes more sense to exercise Chubb's fifth-year option because it would still be cheaper than paying another veteran.
Malik Reed has done more than enough to show he should be the third guy in the rotation, so it's safe to let Jeremiah Attaochu depart in free agency.
Off-ball linebacker: Alexander Johnson should get the second-round tender as a restricted free agent and Josey Jewell will likely see escalators kick into the final year of his rookie deal. That means the Broncos will pay a little more at the position, but not a lot more, and the two have played well enough to deserve those raises.
What the Broncos do for depth remains to be seen. Getting a healthy Justin Strnad will help, but the Broncos may want to prioritize this position in the 2021 draft. If the cap comes in higher than expected, free agency might be an option.
Cornerback: Despite Bryce Callahan's latest injury, his $8.3M cap number for 2021 is manageable and it makes sense to keep him.
A.J. Bouye is another story. He hasn't been bad, but he hasn't been great, either. Then he punctuates his up-and-down season marred by injury with a six-game suspension for PEDs.
Does that warrant keeping him at a cap number of $13.375M for 2021? His cap number and on-field performance are likely to be the biggest reasons to cut him, and that his salary isn't guaranteed.
If the Broncos do release Bouye, though, finding another cornerback will be a priority.
Safety: Every Broncos fan knows that Justin Simmons is playing under the franchise tag and will be seeking a new contract after the season. The question is whether the Broncos get the deal done this time around or play the tag game again.
I suspect the Broncos will keep Kareem Jackson around, even if he hasn't played as well overall in 2020 as he did in 2019. That leaves depth, which should be addressed given that Jackson will be in the final year of his contract.
Special teams: Brandon McManus and Sam Martin have both performed well, but what the Broncos really need is a special teams gunner, something they haven't had since the days of David Bruton and Kayvon Webster.
That's really been the biggest failing of Tom McMahon during his three years with the Broncos. It's easy to look at kickers, punters and return men, but the special teams gunner carries more importance than people realize.
Since I've touched upon McMahon, let's address this point for a moment. The Broncos special teams played well against the Chiefs Sunday, but I don't think it's enough to save McMahon's job. While I expect him to finish the season, I don't expect him back for 2021.
Whoever replaces him will be tasked with finding that special teams gunner. True, the Broncos could use more help at the returner position, but special teams gunner is something the Broncos really need.
Follow Bob on Twitter @BobMorrisSports and @MileHighHuddle.
