Broncos' 2023 X-Factor Revealed by ESPN
It’s about time for the Denver Broncos to catch some luck on the injury front. Ever since the improbable fortune the Super Bowl 50 champion Broncos had in health, Denver has been one of the more injured teams in the league.
After leading the NFL in “adjusted games lost” last season, a stat calculated by Football Outsiders, and ranking 28th in that category in 2021, it’s no wonder Broncos fans have been clamoring for something to change in terms of training, health, and wellness.
With how severely injured the Broncos have been in recent history, it should not be too shocking to see health considered one of the most important factors entering this season. Injury “luck” does tend to fluctuate year-by-year, but just because the Broncos have had bad injury luck in recent seasons does not mean they're “due” for better health this season. See: the Gambler’s Fallacy.
Just how important is health for the Broncos’ entering this season? According to ESPN’s Jeff Legwold, it could be the biggest X-factor for the team’s success in 2023. Specifically, the health of the Broncos’ outside spots along the offensive and defensive line.
This is not a particularly deep team, so it desperately needs tackles Mike McGlinchey and Garett Bolles, as well as outside linebackers Randy Gregory and Frank Clark, to each play at least 15 games to hit the combined 60-game mark. If they do, quarterback Russell Wilson will play better. Gregory has never played a full season, while McGlinchey and Clark have already missed practice time in camp. The Broncos' fingers are already crossed, but they need 60 games, at minimum, from those four to approach their win ceiling.
It's true that the Broncos need to stay healthy along the trenches, but do the players he highlighted matter more than that of other positional groups? In a vacuum, the edge position Clark and Gregory play and the offensive tackle spots manned by Garett Bolles and Mike McGlinchey are some of the most important and valuable positions on any football team.
But is the depth at these spots so glaring that losing the starters could spell doom for Denver?
As far as the edge rushers go, Clark and Gregory are a solid but unspectacular duo. Clark is older and will likely need to play in a heavy rotation, and Gregory can be expected to miss time, given his injury history.
Fortunately, if training camp and preseason are any indication, the Broncos appear to have quality depth behind their starters in Jonathon Cooper and Nik Bonitto. Cooper, a former seventh-round draft pick, has been a standout in many practices, and Bonitto, who struggled outside of the speed rush his rookie season, has apparently added more power to his game in both run and pass defense.
The Broncos will also likely reinforce the position at some point this season when talented pass rusher Baron Browning returns from injury, that is, hopefully returns. Having waves of edge talent will be good for the Broncos’ defense, so keeping Clark and Gregory healthy and on the field will be important, but the growth from the young players should also give fans some relief should either veteran miss some time.
At offensive tackle, the Broncos do have far more questionable depth. With the franchise not selecting a tackle since the 20th selection in the 2017 draft seven years ago, Denver is not bursting with depth at tackle or anywhere on the offensive line.
While backup tackles Cam Fleming, Isaiah Prince, and Alex Palczewski should not make anyone comfortable if they're starting a large number of snaps, Broncos Country should probably not be excited about its starters at the position as well if training camp and preseason are any indication of what is to come.
Bolles deserves some slack coming back from a broken leg he suffered in Week 5 last season, but patience for his performance grows thin with each day. After an up-and-down first preseason game versus Arizona, perhaps Bolles’ position on the team is not a guarantee if his struggles continue.
Fleming — who also struggled versus Arizona on the second-string offensive line — performed admirably last season filling in for Bolles after his injury, and given how moving on from Bolles could free up nearly $14 million this season with a $4 million dead cap hit on the 2023 cap and the 2024 cap, Bolles had better improve to guarantee a spot on the team.
Health is certainly a huge X-factor for the Broncos this season. While this can be said for every team every year, the Broncos’ recent run of injury misfortunate amplifies just how important finally putting together a healthy overall year should be.
The Broncos already lost one starter in wideout Tim Patrick (for a second straight season). However, pointing towards the health of the offensive tackles and edge rushers in comparison to, say, the health of All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II and the return of a healthy running back Javonte Williams, doesn’t seem to hold up when evaluating the circumstances surrounding the team’s current starting offensive tackles and edge rushers.
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