Broncos at Jets Week 4 Odds: Denver Opens as Slight Road Favorites | What it Means
Murphy’s Law sums up this season for the Denver Broncos up to this point because 'whatever could go wrong, seemingly has gone wrong.' The Broncos are testing the notion that injuries are no excuse when it comes to winning and losing.
Two more starters just went down and are heading to injured reserve. The IR list growing after each game has become the norm instead of the exception in Denver. Thankfully, there's a good chance some of these injured players will be back for Week 5, but for now, the Broncos are in a difficult situation of having their third-string quarterback start on a shortened week in a game that'll be played across the country on the East Coast.
The good news? It's a matchup with one of the worst teams in the NFL.
Before digging into the betting world for Thursday Night Football's showdown between the Broncos and New York Jets, it's good to reflect on all that happened against Tampa Bay. The Broncos failed to cover the spread for the first time this season.
Offensively, it was putting it lightly tough to watch. Tampa Bay has a good defense but it's not that good. The Broncos also failed to hit the over as again their offensive struggles and special teams snafus cost them once again. All-in-all, it was one of the more forgettable performances by the Broncos over the past few years.
Denver obviously doesn't have too much time to dwell on that loss as the Thursday matchup against the Jets is almost here. Many fans are likely paying more attention to the shift in draft order, depending on who wins and loses this Week 4 bout on TNF, than what the actual betting odds are.
Right now, the ESPN FPI (Football Power Index) has the Broncos with a 9.3% chance at the top pick in the draft while the Jets are right ahead of them at 19.3%. Getting past that morbid subject, though, this is a big game for both franchises.
The coaching seats are getting hotter with every loss. It would not surprise me to see Adam Gase fired if the Jets lose this game. Vegas has this as a very tight battle, making the choice of where to put money in this one a coin flip.
Here are the current odds in the upcoming game, according to SportsBetting.com.
ATS Betting Lines: Denver Broncos -1
Over/Under: 40
Moneyline: SportsBetting.com does not have a moneyline for this one but the average on other sites is Broncos -130 and the Jets at +110
Breaking it Down
ATS: This season the Broncos are 2-1 against the spread while the Jets are now at 0-3. The money so far has still trended towards the Broncos with 64% of all betting being on the Broncos winning the spread. That would obviously mean that the Broncos would walk out of New York with their first win of the season.
If you are looking to bet on the Broncos, I would say now would be a good time to make that bet. SportsBetting.com has one of the lower spreads around with most already being pushed to -2.5 geared towards the Broncos. The news of Brett Rypien starting at quarterback for Denver has not deterred betting one way or the other so far.
Over/Under: This is where I am a bit surprised at how people are betting at this time. 59% of bettors have bet the over in this game. I know both defenses are dealing with some injuries, but both offenses have struggled mightily this season. I know a lot of Broncos fans are not happy with the offense so far, but in comparison to the Jets, they're light years ahead currently.
The Broncos have gone under in four of their last six games. The Jets have also trended towards the under with six of their last nine games, which means betting the under is the right choice. If I were placing money on the game this week, I'd probably place it here at the underside of things.
Moneyline: For the first time this year, the Broncos do not see a huge return on the moneyline bet. If one were to bet, say, $100, they would only win $76.92. It has almost been triple money coming back most games for those who picked the Broncos (although they would have lost since Denver is 0-3).
Personally, if I believe the Broncos will win this game, it just makes more sense to bet the spread and win just a hair more money with only a little more risk. If you want to eliminate as much risk as possible, but still want to bet on the Broncos, the moneyline bet is for you.
Bottom Line
As I said in the beginning, Vegas is predicting this game to be a tossup. In those types of games, I usually lean on the team with the better quarterback, but neither team has a great option at this point.
Sam Darnold has admitted he is really struggling and when watching the game film, he is "seeing ghosts out there", as he put it last year. Rypien is not someone I have great confidence in, but he did show much better command of the field when he came in at the end of the blow out against Tampa Bay.
Rypien got the ball out on time, making life a bit easier on the Broncos offensive line. It really comes down to how comfortable you feel in betting on such a tossup game.
Follow Carl on Twitter @CarlDumlerMHH and @MileHighHuddle.
