3 Eye-Opening Takeaways on Broncos QB Situation From Win Over Chargers
In what will likely be viewed as the first game of the post-Russell Wilson era, the Denver Broncos defeated the Los Angeles Chargers, 16-9. Jarrett Stidham secured the first regular-season win of his NFL career as the Broncos ended the 2023 calendar year on a positive note.
The win came on the heels of a dramatic week and back-to-back losses. Head coach Sean Payton said his complete focus this week was getting an "eighth win," and he's done just that in the face of some heavy criticism.
Unfortunately, due to how a few other games played out in Week 17, the Broncos were eliminated from the playoffs, officially, on Sunday. That loss to New England on Christmas Eve was as costly as we worried it would be. However, with the Broncos sitting at 8-8 on the season, this team has the chance to finish with a winning record for the first time since 2016.
But what did we learn from Sunday's action? Let's get to my biggest takeaways from Week 17.
Russ' Replacement Plays at Replacement Level
Stidham finished his first start as a Bronco with a 62.5 completion percentage with 224 passing yards and a touchdown — good for a 93.8 rating. Stidham was helped tremendously by a big-baller play made by Lil'Jordan Humphrey that saw the young wideout catch a pass and rumble 54 yards to pay-dirt, with Jerry Jeudy even jumping in way down the field to throw a much-need block.
Stidham's day at the office wasn't anything to write home about, but the Broncos' passing offense did operate much more on schedule. He mostly worked from the pocket — a big departure from Wilson's backyard approach — and involved his receiving corps, which was without Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims Jr.
We actually saw a Broncos quarterback throw a slant, which was sure to make Payton happy. Overall, Stidham showed solid poise and command of the offense. However, his accuracy was so-so, and that was especially evident on his vertical throws.
That was the one marked area that Stidham fell way short on compared to Wilson. Say what you will about Russ' 2023 body of work, but his deep-ball accuracy — that mythical 'moonball' — is still on point and one of the deadliest in the NFL.
At the end of the day, while Payton was surely less stressed and irritated with Stidham actually going through his reads and making on-time throws, he played at a replacement level against a not-so-good defense. Payton was "anxious" to see Stidham start this week, and after seeing him operate the scheme, he produced at about the same level Wilson has all year long.
Stidham delivered replacement-caliber QB play, and in many ways, it was better than Wilson — at least relative to actually operating the offense. And the Broncos did get the win.
This illustrates the Broncos' belief that they weren't getting bang for their buck on Wilson. Whatever one is inclined to believe about the Russ saga, it's crystal clear that he wasn't playing at a level commensurate with his enormous paycheck.
The Broncos signed Wilson to a contract extension in August of 2022 that paid him $49 million per year on average. Payton got comparable results from a journeyman backup making $44M less in 2023.
That's the rub.
Untapped WR Potential
Again, Stidham didn't exactly light it up, and he may have had little choice but to involve as many receivers as possible with Sutton and Mims out, but he distributed the ball to guys who've been mostly ignored by Wilson all year. Receivers like the aforementioned Jeudy and Humphrey, as well as Brandon Johnson, showed that they have a lot more to offer the Broncos than what they've been given the opportunity to prove this season.
Jeudy is a receiver meant to be targeted on schedule, and that's not Wilson's forte. While he finished with just three receptions for 54 yards, Jeudy was targeted six times. The quality of the targets Jeudy garnered from Stidham played to his strengths, which allowed him to capitalize on the very way that he wins: through elite route running.
The Broncos are sure to have a quarterback not named Wilson starting for them in 2024. When that day comes, it bodes well for every receiver on the roster, including Sutton.
From Wilson's bromance with Sutton, the QB's inability to operate the offense on schedule and with rhythm, and missing wide-open targets, Week 17 illustrated that the Broncos' wide receiver corps has been woefully underutilized this year.
We learned from Ian Rapoport on Sunday before the game that the Broncos' receivers had begun to murmur about Wilson missing wide-open targets on film, wondering what the offense might look like with Stidham under center. Now, we know.
Best Possible Outcome
Honestly, the worst thing that could have happened against the Chargers wasn't a loss. It would have been Stidham lighting up the box score for 300 yards and four touchdowns because it would have possibly risked the Broncos believing they already have 'their guy' under center for 2024 and beyond.
That's more valuable than one or two spots worth of better draft position.
Stidham's journeyman day showed that he's a serviceable backup — but a backup-caliber quarterback nonetheless. This frees Payton and company up to fully embrace a QB search in 2024, leaving no stone unturned in identifying and securing a signal-caller of the future in the head coach's image.
Stidham still has one game left to go. But it'll look much like his Week 17 box score.
Yes, it's time for the Broncos to go back to the quarterback well. Only this time, the team can't delude itself into pursuing reclamation projects.
It's time for the Broncos to find a future franchise quarterback the old-fashioned way: through the draft. The Payton-Wilson marriage didn't work out, but Russ did show marked improvement under his coaching. There's no question that Payton was a net positive on Wilson.
Nothing I saw from Payton in Year 1 as head coach of the Broncos detracts from my confidence in his track record with quarterbacks. When it comes to identifying and coaching a quarterback of the future, the Broncos made the right hire at head coach a year ago.
Unleashed from the Russ shackles, Payton will be freed to bring his considerable experience and expertise on quarterbacks fully to the fore. It's going to be a compelling process to watch unfold.
Bring on 2024.
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