3 Critical Stats Reveal Broncos' Path to Beating Bills
The Denver Broncos' victory over the Kansas City Chiefs has the fan base believing again. If the team can play like that every week, that belief will be warranted.
Thanks to the bye, the fans had to wait two full weeks to see whether the win was real or a fluke. Which of the two will be revealed on primetime in Buffalo?
The Buffalo Bills are a beatable team right now, and if the Broncos want to make it three in a row and solidify the fans’ belief, the following numbers can aid in that endeavor.
75%
Looking at the Bills’ pass defense from a high level, it would appear that it's formidable and that the Broncos' offense should play conservatively. However, digging a little deeper, that isn’t necessarily the case.
The Broncos' offense should be aggressive and attack with deep balls when it can because the Bills' defense only appears to be of the ball-hawking variety. Buffalo's eight interceptions rank them highly in the NFL, but 75% of those interceptions came from only two quarterbacks in two games.
They picked off Sam Howell four times and Jimmy Garopolo twice. This means they had a very good couple of games, but against the other seven teams the Bills have faced, they've rarely intercepted the pass.
Compare that to other teams with similar interception totals. The Baltimore Ravens have interceptions in six of their nine games spread across six quarterbacks. The Las Vegas Raiders have intercepted five different quarterbacks in five of their nine games.
Oftentimes, interceptions can come in bunches, but the Bills are very lopsided in this category. The Broncos should be aggressive and not overly worried about the Bills defense.
The Broncos should succeed if the coaches can devise a solid game plan to pick the right spots to be aggressive in their passing attack.
4.2
The Bills’ run defense is vulnerable, and the Broncos are committing to the run as of late. That's a recipe for success. The Bills have given up 4.9 yards per carry overall and 114 rush yards per game.
Analyzing Buffalo's weakness in this area, the Broncos' offense should run behind Quinn Meinerz for maximum damage to that defense. When removing runs of 20-plus yards and only looking at the first, second, and third quarters, the Bills have given up 4.2 yards per carry when teams run to the right guard and right tackle areas of the field.
This is considerably more than the NFL average. When leaving the explosive runs in the analysis, that number balloons to a massive 8.6 yards per carry, more than double the NFL average.
Javonte Williams grinding out the tough yards behind Meinerz could carry him to his first 100-yard rushing performance of the season, and Jaleel McLaughlin can have some explosive runs as well. This could be the exploited weakness that keeps the Broncos’ win streak going.
+3%
Josh Allen is a gunslinger on the gridiron. He lives and dies by his arm, and the Broncos could capitalize on that mentality. The Broncos should bait him into throwing deep in order to pick him off.
Allen has thrown interceptions to the deep areas of the field on 8% of his deep pass attempts. This is 3% greater than the league average. Six of his nine interceptions have come from deep passes.
Furthermore, Allen is not as accurate as the rest of the NFL, either. His deep ball completion percentage is 35%, which is less than the rest of the quarterbacks on average across the league. Allen’s weakness can give the Broncos the advantage.
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