3 Keys to Broncos Beating Chiefs & Creating Momentum Down the Stretch
Coming off a close victory over the Green Bay Packers, the Denver Broncos should be full of confidence. Wins are hard to come by in the NFL.
It's clear the Kansas City Chiefs and the Broncos are at different stages in their roster evolution. The Chiefs have been in a class of their own in the AFC West over the past five years, owning a 16-game winning streak over the Broncos and winning two Super Bowls along the way.
That being said, divisional rivalry games are often decided by small margins, with the Broncos often playing the Chiefs tough, so what are the keys to an unlikely victory for the Broncos? Let's dive in.
Play the Matchups
Whether a certain high-profile celebrity fan is present or not, Travis Kelce is the premier matchup nightmare in the league, and his symbiotic chemistry with Patrick Mahomes can generate timely explosive plays. In Denver's Week 6 loss at Arrowhead, Kelce had nine receptions on nine targets for 124 yards, allowing the Chiefs to move the ball well and control the clock, even if the Broncos were able to limit them in the red zone in that game.
The Chiefs will look to be more efficient in the red zone, so the Broncos need to be prepared. The Broncos must do a better job of putting their best players in coverage against the Chiefs’ best weapons in coverage.
That means getting Justin Simmons and, if necessary, Patrick Surtain II in more coverage snaps against Kelce and forcing Mahomes to play other matchups. P.J. Locke stepping up for Kareem Jackson with his suspension is a chance for him to show why he can be a starter for the rest of the season and potentially beyond, but he will need to answer the bell as he figures to be tested early and often, in the run game and in coverage.
The Broncos' defense had its moments against Green Bay, but it will need to step up the physicality a notch further. A.J. Dillon had some punishing runs, averaging 4.1 yards a carry, but the Broncos' linebackers did a good job with their pursuit and came downhill well, while the defensive line dared Jordan Love to beat them with his arm.
The Broncos have a better run-stopping unit with Josey Jewell and Baron Browning, but it is much more difficult with Mahomes’ arm opening up the running lanes. Mahomes is able to get significant yards to keep drives going, and that's paired with the hard-running Isiah Pacheco, who fights for extra yardage. The Chiefs have also involved Pacheco in the passing game more, so Jewell, Singleton, and Browning will have their work cut out for them.
The Broncos' defensive line will need to step up and have its share of wins against the Chiefs' vaunted interior offensive line. The Broncos’ edge rushers will have a bit more pressure to get some wins against Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor, as they need to be able to generate pressure with four.
The Broncos have been one of the worst-performing blitz teams, but blitzing Mahomes too often leads to disaster as he destroys it, especially with Kelce able to get out on hot routes and into the soft part of the zone. The Broncos' defense has to play the matchups, but they also absolutely need to win their share of them too.
Move the Ball on the Ground
Too often in games this season, the Broncos have abandoned a running game that was working well in favor of a passing game that has not. Some of it is the game script and borne out of necessity, but even in close games, this has happened.
The Chiefs have a defense that is stocked full of talent and, in the game at Arrowhead, limited Russell Wilson to 13 completions on 22 attempts for a paltry 95 yards, and a miserable 46.6 QB rating, with Wilson taking four sacks. Juxtaposed against this, the Broncos' running game had 115 yards on a combined 23 carries at a robust 5.0 yards-per-carry average, led by Javonte Williams and his 10 carries for 52 yards, and Jaleel McLaughin’s seven carries for 30 yards at a 4.3 average.
The Broncos have to commit to the running game more, not only to win the time of possession and limit possessions that Mahomes has to hurt the defense but in order for the Chiefs’ safeties to come forward and open up the passing game to allow the Broncos more favorable one-on-one matchups against Kansas City's cornerbacks.
When Wilson does throw, he needs to be able to do so with an increased average depth of target (aDOT), with more air yards, and allowing more opportunities for Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy to generate explosive plays on throws past the sticks. If Wilson throws with a shallow aDOT, with passes in front of the safeties and linebackers, the Broncos will struggle to move the ball. The Broncos will also need to be able to move the ball better without relying on penalties from opposing defenses as well.
While the Broncos need to find a healthy balance, the run game can help keep Wilson and the offense on schedule and will prevent the Chiefs' defense from pinning their ears back and reading the pass. At the very least, it shows the Broncos are matching the Chiefs’ physicality by committing to the run game for the entirety of the game.
More Efficiency in Red Zone
It goes without saying that the Broncos need to find more efficiency in the red zone. Denver has scored 12 touchdowns in 25 red-zone trips this season, including going 1-of-4 against the Packers.
The field gets more condensed, and it is harder to move the ball anyway, but the Broncos must match the Chiefs’ scoring with drives that finish with seven points. The Broncos utilizing extra linemen in the running game is a good development, especially in the red zone.
Part of it is limiting pre-snap penalties that put the Broncos off-schedule as well but utilizing more 12 personnel groups in the red zone (1 RB, 2 TEs) could play to Wilson's strengths, who has performed his best in that personnel grouping, albeit in a limited number of snaps.
If the Broncos can keep the game close going into the fourth quarter, matching the physicality of the Chiefs, limiting penalties, doing their best, and executing the plays as designed, they can give fans a reason to believe —when many may have written off Sean Payton's 2023 squad.
Follow Mile High Huddle on Twitter and Facebook.
Subscribe to Mile High Huddle on YouTube for daily Broncos live-stream podcasts!
