Broncos Must Win These Key Matchups To Beat Colts

Denver Broncos vs. Indianapolis Colts. Which team has the advantage?

The Denver Broncos are returning home with their heads hung low after a brutal self-inflicted loss to the hated Las Vegas Raiders. Adding to the misery of the loss wasn't just giving the Raiders their first win on the season, it was losing to Josh McDaniels, the ex-Broncos head coach who caused so much damage more than a decade ago. 

While there was some bright spot from that game, the Broncos haven't shown the needed consistency to build off of those bright spots. They did a great job defending the run in the first three weeks, only to get spread thin and run over by Josh Jacobs. 

The Broncos' issues on both sides of the ball and how the Raiders exploited them are replicable by the Indianapolis Colts. Adding to the short week are the injuries the Broncos have dealt with. 

Denver lost Javonte Williams for the rest of the season, Quinn Meinerz, P.J. Locke, Aaron Patrick, Jonathon Cooper, and Randy Gregory are all out or expected to be out. 

Locke and Patrick were core special teams players, and both offered depth on defense with the injuries at their respective positions. Meinerz and Cooper have been struggling to come back from hamstring injuries, while Gregory was the Broncos' best pass rusher so far this season and will have to miss at least four games on injured reserve. 

So, how do the Broncos match up against the Colts? 

Russell Wilson vs. Colts Defense

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While it wasn't his best game statistically, it was his best game when you look at the tape for Wilson. His game still had issues, but he made fewer mistakes that fell at his feet with hit throws and decision-making. 

Through the first four weeks, Wilson has faced a defensive ranking from fourth in pass defensive DVOA all the way to 32nd in DVOA. The Colts are 27th. 

This is a favorable matchup for the Broncos. Kenny Moore II has struggled for the Colts all season, and while Stephon Gilmore has been solid, he isn't the player he used to be. Not to mention Zaire Franklin has been terrible in coverage and should help the matchups with tight ends. 

Wilson has to make the right reads before the snap, something he has struggled with, or this defense can give him issues. The Colts are a talented unit in their front-7, and you don't want to miss rushers and take shots, especially when Wilson is already banged up. 

Advantage: Slightly Broncos. 

Broncos Pass Protection vs. Colts Pass Rushers

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DeForest Buckner is a major threat to how the Broncos' interior offensive line has struggled. However, Kwity Paye and Yannick Ngakoue threaten Garett Bolles and Cameron Fleming. Those three pass rushers have combined for 34 total pressures and four sacks. 

Buckner and Paye, among all edge rushers and interior defensive linemen with 100 pass rush snaps, sit in the top-25 in pass rush win rate. 

The Broncos' offensive line is 16th in pass blocking efficiency, and they were helped by a good showing the first two weeks. However, they have started to falter more over their last two games. The Advantage here goes to the Colts because this is an offensive line that is hard to trust. 

Advantage: Colts.

Broncos Rushing Game vs. Colts Run Defense

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Denver lost Javonte Williams and will be relying on Melvin Gordon, who has four fumbles this season and is averaging a fumble every 8.8 touches going back to the season finale of the 2021 season. You can't trust him to hold onto the ball. 

Despite having three fumbles as a rusher, one coming as a receiver, Melvin Gordon has the fifth highest success rate for running backs this season. That is one positive with him getting the bulk of the carries. That doesn't change how hard it is to trust him to hold onto the ball. 

You can't trust Lloyd Cushenberry III or Dalton Risner in the run game, especially with the former getting pushed back consistently, and the latter being tossed aside. 

This comes against the second overall run defense in DVOA, featuring an extremely underrated Grover Stewart and Buckner in the middle, and E.J. Speed and Bobby Okereke do a tremendous job against the run. 

It would be a significant and pleasant surprise if the Broncos could get anything going on the ground. However, the advantage is for the Colts, which isn't even close. Even if Denver didn't lose Williams, the Colts would still have the advantage. 

Advantage: Colts. 

Broncos Passing Game vs. Colts Coverage

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This would be a good game for the Broncos to get KJ Hamler involved, and the tight ends should be able to do well against the Colts linebackers. In addition, the Broncos should do whatever they can to get Courtland Sutton matched up on Moore as much as possible. 

The concern is can the Broncos catch the passes thrown their way? Drops have been an issue and have come with terrible timing. While the Colts' pass coverage isn't terrible, they are slightly above that bottom tier. 

So, it's a game where, on paper, the Broncos stop themselves more than the Colts. But, of course, game preparation can change that around. 

The advantage goes slightly to Denver, especially with the Colts' struggles to put it together in coverage. However, if there weren't the concern of Denver holding themselves back, it would be more than slightly for Denver. 

Advantage: Slightly Broncos.

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Matt Ryan vs. Broncos Defense

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Ryan has not been the superstar quarterback he was for a few years now. However, watching him this season, while he still makes some great throws, it's clear his time in the NFL should be over. He has thrown five interceptions and five touchdowns while fumbling nine times. 

Ryan is taking a lot of high-percentage throws, but they come from holding the ball for a while. Ryan has the 14th-longest average time to throw. He is a true pocket passer who doesn't offer much when buying more time. He is also sixth in turnover-worthy plays percentage. 

The Broncos need to take advantage of those plays and secure the turnover. That is something they have done decently this season, and with a short week, if they can get more chances for the offense, the better. 

This matchup is in the Broncos' favor on paper, and they need to make it happen in the game. 

Advantage: Broncos.

Broncos Pass Rushers vs. Colts Pass Protection

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The Colts' offensive line is similar to the Broncos regarding pass protection. Unfortunately, it is an unreliable unit, and they rank 10th in pass blocking efficiency but are tied seventh for most sacks allowed. 

In pass blocking efficiency, the Colts sit with 87.9 at 10th, while the Broncos are 16th with 86.8. This early in the season, there is always a tight cluster. 

Part of the problem is Ryan's inability to buy more time, so it is easier for defenses to turn pressures into sacks. Not having Gregory is a big blow to the Broncos' pass rushers. 

The only three players on the Colts' offensive line to play every snap, Quenton Nelson, Ryan Kelly, and Braden Smith, have allowed 17 total pressures and four sacks combined. 

Indy's other two offensive linemen, Matt Pryor and Danny Pinter, have missed some time, but they have allowed 15 pressures and three sacks combined. Bernhard Raimann has played 20 snaps in the first two weeks and played well, but Will Fries, who started last week, was a trainwreck. 

With Gregory out, the pressure is on Bradley Chubb, Baron Browning, and Nik Bonitto. They have to get pressure against Indy's offensive tackles, and they should be able to do a decent job. 

In addition, D.J. Jones and Dre'Mont Jones should be able to provide help on the inside, which gives the Broncos the advantage, coupled with Ryan's inescapability. 

Advantage: Broncos. 

Broncos Defense vs. Colts Running Game

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The Raiders gutted the Broncos' rushing defense, and if Jonathon Taylor is good to go, the Colts can follow the same game plan. However, if Taylor cannot go, the job gets a lot more tricky for the Colts. 

Both teams have lost their top running back, and while the Broncos have been a dual running back team, the Colts have not. Their backup running back has eight rushing attempts for 11 yards, and their third-stringer has two for negative three yards. 

Their backup has the third lowest DVOA among all running backs with at least six carries. That doesn't bode well if Taylor, who is 26th among running backs with at least 32 carries in DVOA, isn't good to do. 

Taylor has the power to replicate the issues Jacobs gave the Broncos' defense, especially if the Colts can spread them thin in nickel and dime packages. Not so much the case with Nyheim Hines, who is sub-200 pounds. 

The advantage changes depending on whether or not Taylor plays in the game. If he does, it is for the Colts, but if he doesn't, it is for the Broncos. 

Advantage: Depends on Taylor's status. 

Broncos Coverage vs. Colts Passing Game

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Patrick Surtain II just had an outstanding game against one of the best receivers in the NFL. He held Davante Adams to five catches on nine targets for 55 yards, while breaking up two passes. The Colts have Michael Pittman Jr, who is a talented receiver, but he is not Adams. 

Rookie Alec Pierce has shown promise, but Ashton Dulan has been their second most targeted receiver. He has done well, but the Broncos secondary should be able to hold their own against the receivers. 

The bigger challenge will be the running back, Hines, who does the most damage as a receiver out of the backfield. He is second on the team in targets with 19, catching 17 of them for 113 yards. Denver will need its linebackers and safeties keeping an eye on Hines and limit what he can do after the catch. 

Indy's two tight ends, Mo Allie-Cox and Kylen Granson, have caused some damage catching 21-of-27 targets, combining for 234 yards and two touchdowns. Both of the tight ends are in the top 20 for DVOA among tight ends, with at least eight catches. 

Denver has covered tight ends well, allowing 21-of-27 targets to be caught for 183 yards and a single touchdown, which came on a broken coverage. The Broncos have also handled some high-caliber tight ends in George Kittle (4-4 for 28 yards) and Darren Waller (3-5 for 24 yards). 

Overall, the Broncos are sixth in pass defense DVOA, and they have the advantage here against the Colts. 

Advantage: Broncos. 

Nathaniel Hackett vs. Frank Reich

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There are concerns about Reich, and some Colts fans are calling for him to be fired. Reports are coming out about Colts owner Jim Irsay losing patience with Reich and GM Chris Ballard. So that puts pressure on those two to figure things out with this football team. 

As for Hackett, he can't seem to get out of his way as a play-caller. He doesn't know how to sequence plays or to set plays up and will often turn to things that continuously don't work. He got the edge over McDaniels because of it being McDaniels, but that was an exception. 

Until Hackett shows otherwise, there is little faith in him. The NFL is a show-me league, and he has to show it. So, the edge goes slightly to the Colts, and it is slightly because of the rumors coming out about the dissatisfaction from Irsay. 

Advantage: Slightly Colts. 

Bottom Line

The Broncos can't afford the self-inflicted wounds to continue. They're not a good enough team to overcome the constant issues they bring upon themselves. 

If the Broncos can't get it corrected against a Colts team that is quite similar, especially after four weeks, it will be hard to remain hopeful for the season. We knew it would take some time to put it all together, but the Broncos' issues go beyond that. 

Even so, this is the point, even on a short week, to show that Denver can and will put it all together. 

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