Broncos' Defense is Elite? Examining the Analytics
No one will try to argue that the Denver Broncos' defense is bad. However, there is a legitimate question about how good of a unit it really is. Are the Broncos truly a top-five unit in the NFL or top-10?
Based on Football Outsiders' DVOA, the Broncos have a top-five defense, which is one of the better analytics sites out there when it comes to classifying whether a unit is good or bad.
When you look at team statistic, like total yards per game and pass yards per game, the Broncos are once again a top-five unit. Denver has done a great job of limiting opposing offenses, and a lot of that success comes from the defense's ability to generate consistent pressure. The Broncos are third in total sacks and in the top 10 in pressure percentage.
The Broncso have a good defense, but is it a great unit? Are the Broncos as good as those rankings suggest?
Denver hasn't faced the best quarterback slate this season, though Geno Smith has been a surprise and Derek Carr and Justin Herbert are both ranked top-12. The Broncos relatively shut these signal-callers down, but they had their successes. Denver also relinquished modest successes to Matt Ryan, Davis Mills, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Zach Wilson.
Three of those four quarterbacks are among the worst in the NFL this season, and the fourth is middle-of-the-pack at best. The Broncos got bailed out by a dropped touchdown from Mills and allowed Ryan and Wilson lead drives down the field at the most inopportune times.
The Broncos' defense doesn't have the excuse of how bad the offense is either, which is having the collateral impact of fatiguing them late in the game. However, the Broncos are stepping up more in the second half, with their faltering occurring more in the first half.
Denver has allowed 15 drives in the first half to be sustained for over five minutes of game time or to end with points for the other team. 15 out of 38 drives in the first half; it's good but not great.
As for Denver's defensive play in the second half and overtime, the Broncos have allowed 14-of-43 drives to last more than five minutes or end in a score, while 27 ended in punts or turnovers (two were end-of-game drives).
So, the Broncos are doing a little better later in the game than earlier and allowing fewer sustained drives. Also, Denver's ability to generate a turnover is better in the second half than it has been in the first.
Even with the all the injuries the Broncos have sustained, the defense has done a fine job overcoming them. It probably would be a top-five unit if Denver hadn't suffered some big blows to the defense. However, with the injuries, there is enough of a variance in the Broncos' performance to slightly bump them out.
Denver's defense is a good unit; there is no denying that. It's a top unit that probably finds itself slightly outside of the top 10. However, the Broncos are still putting things together and showing improvements in certain areas each week.
Some of these issues do fall on defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero and how he has his cornerbacks play coverage, as well as his rotations. The Broncos have allowed too many big plays with some of their best defenders on the sideline because there isn't a balanced rotation. That's something Evero needs to work on.
By cleaning up the rotation, improving tackling, being more consistent against the run, and cutting out the penalties (like they did against the New York Jets), the Broncos would easily be a top-five, if not top-three, defense in the NFL.
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