Two Harbingers Predict Big Things for Broncos in 2023
There's hope that this will be the year the Denver Broncos break through for early and sustained success. There are two big indicators pointing to such a success unfolding, which have held solid for the teams that have met the requirements.
Outside of these two indicators, there are plenty of other reasons for optimism with this 2023 Broncos team. But let's dive into the two harbingers in question.
Strategic Free-Agent Investing
The first is what the Broncos did in free agency. The Broncos were the biggest spending team in the NFL this offseason. I don't recommend teams doing this on a regular basis, and some worry that the Broncos doing so this offseason could end up being a huge mistake.
Long-term spending big in an offseason doesn't always bear fruit, but in the short term, it could pay dividends for the Broncos. The Jacksonville Jaguars were last year’s big spender.
The Jags ended up seeing a six-game difference in the win/loss column. I know many will point to them having a young quarterback named Trevor Lawrence as a big reason for the change, but the reality is the biggest spending team usually sees a major increase in wins.
In 2021, the New England Patriots were the big spenders of the NFL and saw a three-game swing towards the positive, getting them back in the playoffs after missing for the first time since 2008. In 2020, it was the Dolphins putting huge money into their roster, and they, like the Jaguars and Patriots, saw a huge jump in wins for the season.
The Dolphins gained five wins over their previous season, finishing 10-6 on the year. The 2019 New York Jets were the team to pay out big, and they finished three games higher than the previous season. 2018 it was time for the Chicago Bears to join the big spenders club as they saw a seven-game swing from the previous season.
The list goes on, but since 2016, six of the seven teams that were the biggest spenders in free agency had a winning record, and every single team saw an improvement. At the very least, the Broncos should expect at least a three-game change over last season with the possibility for even a greater turnaround than that with a shot at the playoffs.
Big Money on the O-Line
The second big indicator of a quick turnaround for the Broncos can be found in an area that fans have been agonizing over for quite some time. Teams that have spent big, especially on the offensive line, have seen the quickest return on their investment. Most other positions seem to take time to gel within the system, but most of the time, an offensive line investment can hit the ground running.
A great example is how the 2019 Dolphins and the Carolina Panthers were tied for the most sacks allowed the season prior, with 58. Both teams committed big money to the offensive line the next offseason in 2020 and saw them each go from relinquishing 58 sacks to 34 allowed by the Dolphins and 36 by the Panthers.
The Broncos finished last in sacks allowed last season with 63. There should be optimism for this category improving dramatically for two reasons.
Again, the Broncos have invested big in the offensive line with the signings of Ben Powers and Mike McGlinchey. There's also the added bonus of Garett Bolles returning from injury, giving the unit some nice upgrades over last season.
Another great reason is the commitment to the run game, taking pressure off the quarterback. Russell Wilson will be required to make fewer completions throughout a game in an offense better fit to his skill set, and a better play caller at the helm directing things should lead to a more positive outcome in the sacks allowed department.
The Takeaway
The Broncos have an uphill battle to climb this season, and I understand why many fans aren't big believers in this team, with Wilson being the quarterback running this ship. However, the Broncos have taken positive steps this offseason and have really shown a commitment to winning.
Don't view this roster as a rebuild in process. Sean Payton knows what he's doing.
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