Examining Whether Broncos Have Done Enough to Replace 3 Key Starters

The Denver Broncos' hands have been tied somewhat this offseason, but that didn't stop them from trying to replace Justin Simmons, Josey Jewell, and Lloyd Cushenberry III.

Oct 29, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos safety Justin Simmons (31) celebrates his fumble / Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

The Denver Broncos decided to part ways with Pro Bowl safety Justin Simmons while letting inside linebacker Josey Jewell and center Lloyd Cushenberry III walk in free agency. But have the Broncos replaced these veteran leaders?

The Broncos' finances played a significant part in jettisoning all three players, thanks to the still-reverberating consequences of the Russell Wilson contract. Even though the Broncos have made some moves to bring in replacements, to be blunt, it hasn't been enough. 

The Broncos are facing a significant challenge in replacing Jewell and Cushenberry, and the task is even more challenging with Simmons. Let's examine the team's approach to replacing this starting trio, starting with the secondary.

Safety

Denver's strategy has been a series of calculated risks, placing its bets on Caden Sterns, P.J. Locke, Brandon Jones, JL Skinner, and Delarrin Turner-Yell. These players can significantly impact or disappoint, adding to Denver's uncertainties. 

The issue at safety starts with how much the Broncos may be counting on Sterns after two season-ending injuries. This will be Sterns' fourth year, and he has not played 600 snaps over three seasons on defense.

The injuries are unfortunate, and while Sterns showed promise in a partial role as a rookie, that was in 2021. He followed it up with a promising showing in 2022 until he got hurt in a Week 5 matchup. By the time the season starts, Sterns will have played two snaps in over 700 days. 

Locke is the safest bet after coming in hot during the 2023 season, but he played 145 snaps on defense over three seasons before that. He showed much promise, especially as a blitzer, but a step forward is still needed. Out of 78 safeties who played at least 500 snaps, Locke ranked No. 53 in overall defensive grade per Pro Football Focus. 

Jones, who played 542 snaps on defense last year, four more than Locke, was a rotational piece in the Miami Dolphins secondary. He graded out with a 75.4 PFF mark, significantly improving over his previous career-high of 61.1. While his performance has been commendable, it's important to note that he has yet to establish himself as a consistent starter. 

As for Turner-Yell and Skinner, betting on either is much more of a risk. Skinner has played one snap, and he isn’t the type of safety to look at when replacing Simmons. Turner-Yell stepped in for an injured Simmons last year, which went terribly for the Broncos. You can’t trust Turner-Yell to be counted on for a serious role. 

Clearly, the Broncos are looking to replace Simmons between Sterns, Locke, and Jones and will likely have a rotation between them. You can make that work at safety, but a weak link can destroy the literal safety net of the defense. Not to mention, it wrecks the communication and leadership on the field when you rotate that many players compared to having someone like Simmons back there. 

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Linebacker

At linebacker, Jewell wasn’t the best, but he was solid, reliable, an excellent communicator, and a leader. Alex Singleton is a one-dimensional linebacker who needs a partner to help cover his issues.

For that, the Broncos are looking at Cody Barton, Jonas Griffith, Justin Strnad, and maybe Drew Sanders, depending on where he ends up. Jewell is easier to replace, but the Broncos are making risker bets to replace him than they are with Simmons. 

There were 56 linebackers with at least 700 NFL snaps last year, including Barton, who had the fourth-worst grade among them. Singleton had the 14th-worst grade, while Jewell was 26th. Barton is the favorite for the job, but there has been a significant decline in the stability Jewell has brought. 

It's a bet to get a good year out of Barton, after he flamed out with the Seattle Seahawks, and then last year with the Washington Commanders. With a 53.9 grade in 2023 and a 56.6 grade in 2022, the Broncos will likely take a loss on this bet with Barton. His highest grade was in 2021 with a 59.7, when he played 190 snaps on defense. 

So who's the next man up? Sanders? The 2023 third-round pick whom even the Broncos seem unsure of where to play him?

Will Sanders be an edge defender, or will he be an off-ball linebacker? Griffith showed some promise in 2022, but he missed all of last season after getting hurt early in training camp after he got hurt in a Week 10 matchup, which caused him to miss the rest of that season.

It's a gamble similar to Griffith as it is with Sterns. Strnad has been a solid special teams player, but his play on defense has consistently been poor, even in preseason action when he isn’t facing the top talents in the NFL.

This isn’t saying Jewell is great, but the Broncos took a poor unit and got worse on paper. Sure, it can change when it comes to games being played, but there is enough tape on these linebackers to have the confidence to bet against them as an improved unit for this next season. However, the Broncos have improved the interior defensive line, which can partially cover up the issues at linebacker. 

Center

The final position is the vacant center spot, with Cushenberry taking off for the Tennessee Titans. Cushenberry got a big contract that was projected to land the Broncos a fourth-round compensatory pick, though that was canceled out with the signings of Jones and defensive lineman Malcolm Roach. 

With Bo Nix the likely starting center, the Broncos could turn to his center at Oregon in Alex Forsyth. However, Forsyth had a rough preseason last year and never saw the field during the season.

That would be a big gamble on a position that requires a lot. If not Forsyth, then Luke Wattenberg or Sam Mustipher are the other candidates, and they're as big of a gamble as Forsyth. 

Both have experience but have yet to play well. Mustipher has been one of the worst centers, if not the worst, over the past few seasons.

Mustipher played 202 snaps for the Baltimore Ravens last season, and while they needed a backup, they were comfortable letting Mustipher go. The Chicago Bears drafted him, and despite how bad their offensive line has been, they cut Mustipher before his rookie contract was finished. 

Even with a rookie quarterback, you want a center who can help with calls at the line. The Broncos are still determining whether they have one. Forsyth, with his connection to Nix, might be the safest bet of the three, but it is still an extreme risk for the Broncos to take. 

The Takeaway

Three vital starters from the 2023 season are now with other teams, and the Broncos are making huge gambles to replace them. The truth is, the Broncos haven’t done enough to replace the trio, but they aren’t in a position where they could have done more.

The Broncos are feeling the effectives of the Willson extension (which he never played on) and it impacted their approach to building up the roster this offseason. Vital players were let go/allowed to walk, and proper replacements couldn’t be targeted, so Denver has to roll with what it's got and hope it works out. 

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