3 Keys to a Broncos Victory Over Chargers in Week 17
Denver, CO. — It’s difficult to comprehend the fact that the AFC playoffs will start in a few weeks, and the Denver Broncos will be watching them from their couches. Yet, that’s where the 7-8 Broncos remain as they prepare to host the 5-10 Los Angeles Chargers in their home game finale.
Just days ago, on a frigid Christmas Eve night in the Mile High City, the New England Patriots upset and humiliated Sean Payton’s team in primetime action to the tune of a 26-23 defeat.
There’s a meek 5% probability that proves Denver is mathematically still alive in the postseason race, but Broncos Country knows better than to inflate hope based on what we’ve seen in consecutive losses. This team is barely .500 when facing opponents at home, which has added to the frustration and impatience of fans in Denver.
Playoffs or not, this underperforming team can ill afford a third consecutive loss to a coach-less, quarterback-less team like the Chargers, even with the tectonic changes made this week on offense. What will it take for Denver to win?
Here are three keys to a Broncos victory that would earn a winning record at home in 2023.
A New QB Will be Holding the Clipboard
The only reason Russell Wilson wasn't been benched before this week was because Payton didn't want to officially tip his hand to the rest of the NFL that the Broncos will be in the QB market this offseason.
But at a certain point, enough was enough as the entire world witnessed the messy marriage between head coach and quarterback this season. That’s not to say there weren’t some good times, nor should that erase some of the positives from the Payton and Wilson pairing. There’s no shame in admitting failure and cutting your losses sooner rather than later.
It’s doubtful that Denver will find another NFL team interested in trading for Wilson this offseason, as Russ has a $39 million guarantee on the books for next season with another $37M in guaranteed payouts for 2025 if he’s still on the team on March 17, 2024. If the Broncos decide to jettison Wilson, they’d eat $39M in addition to suffering record dead-cap consequences over the ensuing two years.
Wilson’s bad habit of hanging on to the football for excessive periods of time yielded sacks and missed opportunities at an alarming rate, despite him throwing 26 touchdowns and 3,070 yards. Russ has additionally logged eight interceptions and 10 fumbles in 15 games furthering the offense’s dismay.
While I doubt that Jarrett Stidham is the franchise savior, it behooves the Broncos to evaluate him and confirm whether he’s a viable backup option for the future of this team. Last March, the former New England fourth-round pick out of Auburn was inked to a two-year, $10M contract.
Payton is correct to see what he has in Stidham and discover whether playing another QB can produce efficient results from other players on the team. After all, Stidham has been described as a wiz on the grease board in the meeting rooms and is well respected by his play-calling head coach and QBs coach Davis Webb.
The Broncos' planning and scheming for the 2024 offseason will begin in approximately two weeks as coaches and front office brass will begin the rebuilding of the current roster seeking resolution and progression from multiple areas of need.
It’s already known that the Broncos need a new starting QB in 2024 if they plan on becoming annual playoff contenders instead of bottom feeders. Denver needs to find out whether it needs to turn over the entire QB room next season or if Stidham can bridge the gap for a rookie in waiting.
In the meantime, it'll be interesting to gauge the Broncos' vibe on Sunday with Wilson dressing as the No. 2 QB and holding the clipboard on the sideline.
Dispatch Defensive Young Bucks
Overconfident Broncos fans have been humbled in back-to-back losses in primetime punishments. It’ll be hard for the Broncos to win these next two games against the Chargers at home and then hit the road to play the Las Vegas Raiders, somewhere they’ve never won.
Maybe this is the ideal opportunity to forgo some of the knowns on this roster in search of untapped potential from younger players on the team. Regardless of the outcome these next two weeks, it’s painfully obvious that the Broncos aren’t a playoff team, which means they need to evaluate talent and maximize playing time for rookie draft picks.
Under-the-radar defensive backs P.J. Locke and Ja’Quan McMillian have earned their keep alongside their respective leaders Justin Simmons and Patrick Surtain II. But it’s time we see what third-round rookie cornerback Riley Moss can do in Vance Joseph’s defense.
The 23-year-old former Hawkeye ran a 4.45-second 40-yard dash and has appeared in 12 games this season with five tackles logged in 229 snaps on special teams and defense. Moss brings a natural tackling ability combined with special awareness in coverage with a solid recovery that would be a welcome regular addition to this defense.
J.L. Skinner was the Broncos’ sixth-round pick last April, and this man should also get an opportunity to play NFL football. I scouted him last January in my Senior Bowl Coverage for Mile High Huddle, and I was impressed with his grit, physicality, and play recognition.
Skinner has only appeared in one game this season with six snaps on special teams. Because team captain Kareem Jackson’s Denver tenure concluded with his release and reunion in Houston this week, this former Boise State Bronco could have an opportunity to earn starting reps in a complimentary role.
Linebacker Drew Sanders was selected in the third round out of Arkansas and has logged significant playing time in 15 games with 18 tackles (nine solo), and a fumble recovery. Given what we’ve seen with Josey Jewell as of late with missed tackles and poor pass coverage, Sanders' athleticism and hard work have earned him the lion’s share of the reps alongside Alex Singleton because that’s the future for the Broncos' linebacker corps.
Combat the Mack Attack
Father Time may be undefeated, but for now, 32-year-old pass rusher Khalil Mack continues to defy him and raise hell for opposing offensive lines and QBs. Originally drafted by the Raiders in 2014, Mack was dealt to Chicago before joining the Chargers in 2022. The former 2016 Defensive Player of the Year has recorded 15 sacks and five forced fumbles this season.
In the Broncos' first meeting with the Bolts in L.A. ust a few weeks ago, the mega pass rusher went sackless against Wilson despite his two tackles and QB hit. The Broncos’ 24-7 victory over the Chargers, which was their first-ever win at So Fi Stadium, was in part due to Payton planning for Mack as a disruptive defense presence.
The onslaught of chip blocks from tight end Lucas Krull and fullback Michael Burton to the double teams from Denver's O-line assisted in slowing down Mack, and kept him from ruining the game for Denver’s already maligned offense. While that was a welcome sight for sore eyes, Mack can be equally disruptive against the run well into his 30s.
The film consistently shows Mack racing down the line of scrimmage to stonewall running backs on the opposite side of the field. Remember, the Broncos only recorded 106 total rushing yards in these teams' previous divisional meeting, so prioritizing Mack will be critical for Denver.
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