3 Keys To an Unlikely Broncos Victory Over Chiefs at Arrowhead
Misery loves company. That old maxim must have originated with Denver Broncos fans as they search for any glimmer of hope that the beloved franchise will finally turn things around and win football games again.
The Broncos remain winless at home and boast just a single victory headed into their Week 6 primetime matchup. The 4-1 Kansas City Chiefs will host the 1-4 Broncos in primetime action on Thursday Night Football.
Some of the characters and names may have changed for both teams, but the overwhelming theme of Chiefs dominance reigns supreme as Kansas City is on a 15-game winning streak against Denver. The last time that the Broncos beat the Chiefs was September 17, 2015 (Week 2), when Peyton Manning’s eventual Super Bowl 50 championship roster won at Arrowhead Stadium, 31-24.
I can feel the collective eye-roll of both Broncos Country and Chiefs Kingdom as I utter the phrase keys to victory. But crazier things have happened in the NFL. If Sean Payton is going to lead the Broncos to finally snapping the streak, though, certain things will have to fall into place.
Here are three unconventional yet painfully obvious keys to victory for the Broncos to snap their 15-game losing streak to the Chiefs.
Payton, Face the Defensive Music
I’ve remained firm in my belief that Payton is the right man to bring this franchise back to glory, but so far, he’s dropped the ball just like his predecessors nearly one-third of the way into the regular season.
Payton refuses to admit what Broncos Country has already accepted as a colossal staffing failure in the re-hiring of Vance Joseph as defensive coordinator. Denver’s putrid defense has allowed 755 rushing yards in the last three games, averaging 251.7 yards per contest, which is the most in team history, and third-most in the NFL during the last 40 years.
Joseph’s unit also allows 36.2 points per game (ranked last), 450.6 total yards per game (ranked last), 5.9 yards per carry rushing (ranked last), and has allowed a 124.6 opposing QBR (ranked last).
While it seems the obvious choice would be to dismiss Joseph from his play-calling duties and elevate another defensive coach, Payton remains comfortable with him at his side. For reasons unknown to all who watch this team play every week, Payton is seemingly entrenched in his decision to allow Joseph’s defense to lose games.
Something has to change.
Perhaps Payton should relinquish his precious offensive play-calling duties to better manage and organize the abysmal defensive woes that plague the Broncos. Doing so could provide the venerated coach with the knowledge and assessment of his current roster, including which players fit in Denver and in its future defensive plans.
One can only procrastinate for so long before it all catches up, which I’m afraid could be the case on Thursday night in Kansas City.
Go for Broke in Every Scenario Imaginable
Normally, a competitive football team considers the odds when it comes to daring play calls or game-time decisions, but the Broncos are hardly that. Denver remains as a collective unit of individuals that is bound by the same workplace uniform rather than a hardened team with a deep, unbreakable bond.
That’s why Payton is within his rights to go for broke against the Chiefs because his squad literally has nothing to lose. Kansas City has owned the Broncos in the AFC West for the last seven years.
Denver has converted 66.6% of its fourth-down attempts, which is currently ranked sixth highest in the NFL, and they’re ironically tied with Kansas City, New Orleans, and San Francisco in that category. In 2022, the Broncos held a 50% fourth-down conversion percentage, showing a marginal improvement under Payton.
It would behoove Denver to remain on the field on 4th-&-manageable scenarios, as field goals will not be the answer to beating the high-powered Chiefs offense.
Usually, teams would need to worry about putting their defense in jeopardy in the event of a failed fourth-down attempt, but the Broncos defense perpetually puts its offense in bad positions, so it doesn’t really matter at this point.
Payton should also dial up some special teams fakes in the form of a punt, field goal, or even an onside kick to either retain possession of the ball, move the chains, or score points. Notice that I’m urging the Broncos to take risks — not to be tricky — as Denver paid for being sloppy in the third quarter against the New York Jets, which resulted in a fumble by rookie wideout Marvin Mims.
On offense, Russell Wilson should take deep shots in hopes of connecting with disgruntled wideouts Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, both of whom continue to generate trade interest from multiple teams. I’m talking spread-out hail-mary-type plays early in the game to truly try and catch the Chiefs off guard.
The Broncos aren’t going to outscore the Chiefs on the road, who average 381 total yards per game and 25.6 points per game. But if Denver can surprise the Chiefs early and often, then maybe the Football Gods will take pity on the team just for one night.
Broncos Must Create ‘Bad Blood’ with Taylor Swift in the House
Most sportsbooks currently have the Broncos as at least a 10-point underdog against the Chiefs, with most over/under figures hovering around 51. Kansas City looks to make it 16 consecutive victories with a win against Denver this week, as Patrick Mahomes has never lost a game to this AFC West foe.
Despite earning All-Pro and Pro Bowl honors in his career, Broncos safety and team captain Justin Simmons, who was drafted in 2016, has never beaten the Chiefs. It’s time for a player on this Broncos roster to take matters into his own hands and ruffle the championship feathers of Chiefs head coach Andy Reid, Mahomes, and tight end Travis Kelce, the last of whom will most likely have his celebrity girlfriend Taylor Swift in attendance for the game.
I’m talking about the Broncos creating some legitimate beef or bad blood — whatever you want to call it — with KC.
The Chiefs definitely don’t respect the Broncos, and why should they? Denver has spent more time pounding its single-victory chest on social media rather than executing winning football on Sundays.
I’m not suggesting that someone take a cheap shot or play outside the rules, but it would be refreshing to see at least one man make a stand. Kansas City has been the proverbial bully on the playground that has grown fat and increasingly entitled from taking the Broncos' lunch money over the last seven seasons.
Does such a player exist on this current Broncos roster? I’m talking about a man who is willing to confront the NFL’s best quarterback and arguably football’s next dynasty to let them know this won't be the same old, business-as-usual, hot-knife-through-butter game for Kansas City.
This is where teams usually lean on their team captains, but during the last five games, Simmons, Wilson, Sutton, Kareem Jackson, and Riley Dixon have hardly been the leaders that the Broncos need to create short- or long-term success.
The ceremonial ‘C' on the jersey is all that distinguishes these veterans from any other player on this roster, so maybe it’s an unproven and fed-up sleeper on this team that finally takes exception to the annual beatdown in Kansas City and leads a new charge.
Follow Mile High Huddle on Twitter and Facebook.
Subscribe to Mile High Huddle on YouTube for daily Broncos live-stream podcasts!
