3 Keys To a Broncos Victory Over Raiders in Week 1
Football is finally back, Broncos Country.
The 2023 campaign begins with the Denver Broncos squaring off in the first AFC West matchup of the regular season against the Las Vegas Raiders from Empower Field at Mile High.
On Sunday, Sean Payton will officially debut as the Broncos head coach after the team acquired him from the New Orleans Saints in a blockbuster trade this past January. No longer do Broncos fans need to speculate on whether Payton can fix Russell Wilson or try to predict this team’s record because the results are about to be revealed.
The Broncos were swept by the Raiders in 2022 and haven’t beaten their arch-nemesis since the Silver and Black moved from Oakland to Las Vegas. Jimmy Garoppolo will also make his career debut for the Raiders as head coach Josh McDaniels continues to make headlines for clashing with edge defender Chandler Jones.
With a new season comes new optimism. Anything is possible with a former Super Bowl-winning head coach and a Super Bowl-winning quarterback on the roster for the good guys.
So how do the Broncos snap their six-game losing streak against to the Raiders? Let’s break down my three keys to a Broncos victory.
Maxx Protect against Crosby
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There’s no denying the dominance that fifth-year pass rusher Maxx Crosby inflicts upon NFL quarterbacks and the hell he’s raised for Denver. He’s amassed 11.5 sacks against the Broncos in the last seven games and is coming off a career-high 12.5 sacks and 22 tackles for a loss in 2022.
Crosby will be lining up across tackles Garett Bolles and Mike McGlinchey, the latter of whom makes his Broncos debut. Denver’s offense will need to prioritize the whereabouts of No. 98 on either side of the perimeter.
Neither Bolles nor McGlinchey have been known to be world beaters in their pass protection sets against elite pass rushers, but there’s no reason that either man should be left to fend for himself. The release of the Broncos' first official depth chart indicates that the tight end room will supplement pass protection against Crosby, specifically with Adam Trautman and Chris Manhertz.
While that may seem odd at first glance to have a TE1 as a blocker, Trautman has demonstrated an innate ability to chip defenders when coming off the line of scrimmage as a receiving threat, while Manhertz has locked up with Crosby previously in his NFL career.
The addition of fullback Michael Burton can also lend a helping hand when it comes to corralling ‘Mad Maxx.’ Payton’s offense has been predicated on quick decisions from the QB on simple high-low reads.
There have also been a lot of unsuspecting targets, like Burton, Trautman, and running back Samaje Perine, all of whom have been tasked with pass protection and have been rewarded with the football. For this game, expect a heavy dose of multiple tight end sets (12 and 13 personnel), along with power-I formations and strong and weak side sets.
These variations should allow the Broncos' offense to withstand the barrage of pass-rushing moves that Crosby will look to unleash. Attacking the beast head-on will be the most effective method of combating the Raiders’ most valuable defensive threat.
Blanket Adams With PS2
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Nobody has waited longer for the first game of the 2023 season than Broncos All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II. 'PS2' is eyeing some revenge against Raiders wideout Davante Adams.
In their last matchup, the Raiders won a 22-16 overtime game on an Adams touchdown, scored over Surtain in coverage, which showed the world that the young corner is human, after all, and capable of being beaten on a play.
Adams combined to catch 16 balls for 242 yards and two touchdowns in his two games vs. the Broncos. However, Surtain was also credited with multiple pass breakups (Adams was targeted 26 times combined) in what was an exciting matchup between two of the league’s best players at their respective positions.
It’s important to note that Surtain was never assigned to follow Adams around the formation, as he locked up with multiple receivers based on his assignments and what the offensive personnel dictated defensively. It will be critical that Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph allows Surtain to play with some freedom, as Garoppolo will likely test the waters early against Denver’s defense.
Let’s be honest; beyond Adams, the Raiders leave a lot to be desired when it comes to playmakers, outside of running back Josh Jacobs and slot receiver Hunter Renfrow, when healthy. Most of Adams’ success against Surtain last year started at the line of scrimmage on tightly-contested routes.
However, this summer, Surtain has demonstrated an elite playmaking ability. When he loses the initial steps of a route, he can recover quite nicely, flip his hips, and sink back into the receiver. I have no doubt that Surtain has been in the lab waiting for his next matchup with Adams.
The same doubles moves that may have caused PS2 to falter last season won’t be his downfall this time around. Joseph’s scheme should also allow for more over-the-top assistance from safeties Justin Simmons and Kareem Jackson. Neither Joseph nor Surtain need to reinvent the wheel when it comes to defending Adams.
Surtain simply needs to strap up his helmet and continue to play the same brand of football that has accelerated his progression throughout his short and impressive NFL career.
Russ Must Avoid Hero Ball & Trust Teammates
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It’s no mistake that Payton named Wilson an offensive captain on Wednesday. The widely criticized signal-caller, who was the source of a media circus in 2022, has seemingly ditched his celebrity status this summer for a new outlook that has given him the ability to relate to his teammates.
There wasn’t a harder worker in training camp than Wilson. He became one of the guys as his teammates embraced his servant-leadership through the dog days of the summer.
That same approach will likely pay dividends for Wilson, who has been tasked with a career and franchise turnaround this year. The expectation to win football games is now, not later, and Russ has embraced that philosophy. Based on what I saw covering every day of training camp, he’s ready for the challenge.
The best way for Wilson to be effective against the Raiders is to play smart and efficient football. Check-down throws to tight ends and backs were frequent at camp, although many observers rolled their eyes. However, five-yard gains add up and move the chains, setting up impact plays that are defined as 10-plus yards.
Based on what I’ve seen at camp, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Wilson find instant chemistry with Trautman, move the ball downfield, and utilize second-year tight end Greg Dulcich as a target, especially in the red zone, based on the situation and defensive mismatches.
By exploiting underneath routes with rookie slot receiver Marvin Mims Jr., Wilson will force the Raiders defense to congest the middle of the field, and that can eventually open up guys like Courtland Sutton to make big vertical plays.
Don’t be surprised to see plays checked into runs at the line of scrimmage as well. Wilson’s best friend in this offense will undoubtedly be through the ground and pound of Javonte Williams and Perine, mixed with the lightning bolt of agility and speed that is undrafted rookie Jaleel McLaughlin. A purposeful and productive running attack will also camouflage some of this O-line's weaknesses in pass protection, as the unit has proven to be aggressive on the ground this summer.
Sacks and even an interception or two might rear their ugly head as they do in almost every football game. While a turnover is never anything to feel good about, it’ll be interesting to see whether Wilson’s response reverts back to his old habits of desperate hero-ball or if he reciprocates the same level of trust that his head coach and teammates have given him throughout the offseason and all of training camp.
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