Broncos Defense is Vulnerable to This Lions' Strong Suit
While the Denver Broncos sit with a 7-6 record, they've had a lot of issues with their rushing defense. Over the past two weeks, the Broncos faced two poor rushing offenses, making both look better than they have most of the season.
Denver's issues on run defense will be under the microscope with its upcoming matchup against the Detroit Lions. The Lions have a dynamic running back trio that complements each other well and is one of the best run-blocking offensive lines in the NFL.
Most of the Broncos' issues in the run game have come in the trenches, with their defensive line and edge rushers not holding up well enough. They get moved around or cleared from the edges, leaving open rushing lanes for the backs to attack.
That doesn't mean the Broncos haven't had their stops or great plays against the run, but they don't have any consistency. Studying the film, some clear culprits are at fault, and the linebackers and defensive backs can't always cover for those issues.
Denver ranks dead last in the NFL against the run, relinquishing 144 yards on the ground per game. Let's look at three critical stats for the Broncos' rushing defense from Weeks 6-14, excluding turnovers and with the win probability between 10-90%.
- EPA/Rush: -0.021 (23rd)
- Rush Success Rate: 43.3% (31st).
The Broncos also rank 24th in allowing explosive runs of 10 or more yards. Meanwhile, the Lions' offense ranks No. 1 in EPA/Rush, 11th in Rush Success Rate, and No. 5 in explosive rush plays.
The Lions' top two backs this year have only fumbled twice. A lot of the Broncos' recent defensive success has been from takeaways. Turnovers are volatile, and the Lions' ball carries don't put the ball on the ground often.
Even if you include Craig Reynolds, Detroit's third option, the Lions have only fumbled three times, with the last time coming in Week 8. On the flip side, Detroit has 17 total rushing touchdowns.
The top two back — David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs — are talented. They complement each other well, with Montgomery bringing power and physicality, combined with Gibbs' explosion, speed, and quickness. They combined have 1,492 rushing yards, 4.5 yards per attempt, and 16 total touchdowns.
Montgomery doesn't get used much in the passing game, but Gibbs does, and he is quite effective there. The Lions also have one of the most effective screen games in the NFL, and even Reynolds gets involved.
Gibbs has 45 catches for 288 yards, while Montgomery has 12 receptions for 106 yards, and Reynolds has 31 for 494 yards. Reynolds also has all five receiving touchdowns in the running back room.
There's more reason to trust the Broncos against running backs who catch the ball than those who rush. So, how do the Broncos handle this trio?
Denver has to sell out to stop the run. That opens up the door for Lions quarterback Jared Goff and the passing game, but with their issues moving the ball through the air recently, that's what you want.
Detroit's offensive line has struggled in recent weeks in pass protection, and getting pressure on Goff creates many problems for the quarterback. Out of 21 quarterbacks with at least 150 pressured dropbacks, Goff ranks No. 6 in completion percentage, but he has thrown the second-most interceptions, has the fifth-most turnover-worthy plays, and his average depth of target is the second lowest.
Goff finds his check-down quickly when the pressure starts to get there, or he tries to force a deeper pass. Both work in the Broncos' favor by forcing a short pass or creating a turnover opportunity. It's best to affect Goff with pressure, but he's hard to sack.
Of those 21 quarterbacks on pressured dropbacks, Goff has the fastest time to throw, tied No. 15 in fewest sacks at 25, and the pressure-to-sack percentage is the 18th lowest. That said, the Broncos finished pressures against Justin Herbert before he left the game injured last week, and he also had a low pressure-to-sack percentage.
So, that's how the Broncos deal with the Lions' rushing attack. Sell out against the run and take it away as an option. The Broncos' offense getting some quick and early scores will also help.
Denver needs to force the Lions into a situation where they have to pass the ball and not allow their romping running game to be an avenue to success.
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