7 Hard Questions Broncos Must Answer as Russell Wilson Era Ends Ugly
The Denver Broncos benched starting quarterback Russell Wilson for the final two games of the season. It's a move that likely means the Broncos will move on from Wilson in 2024.
The Broncos still owe a significant sum to Wilson for 2024, but the move is more about getting out of the cash commitment for 2025. As I’ve previously discussed, the Broncos’ decision about what to do with Wilson boiled down to whether or not the team was willing to commit to him through 2025.
There will be a lot of questions asked about what moving on from Wilson will mean. I will answer the most likely ones, diving into Wilson’s contract and its impact on other moves the Broncos will make.
Will Denver cut Wilson?
If the Broncos cut him, they'll certainly use a post-June 1 designation because a straight cut means an $85 million dead money charge with $49.6M in cap space lost.
However, by using the post-June 1 designation (which all teams may use on up to two players), the Broncos may spread out the dead money charge over two seasons. That results in $35.4M in dead money for 2024 with no cap space gained or lost and $49.6M dead in 2025 with $5.8M in cap space cleared.
The one thing to keep in mind is the Broncos must make this decision by March 21, 2024, when his $37M base salary in 2025 will become fully guaranteed.
What happens to Denver's ability to improve the roster?
If a straight cut was utilized, it would force the Broncos to gut the roster. However, as a post-June 1 designation, it won’t require additional extreme moves, even with the massive dead money hits.
What’s really the concern with the dead money is that it’s a sign of a bad contract given to a player. The cap situation can be managed, but the dead money is a reminder of a deal that went badly for the team.
There’s also the fact that the Broncos must still pay $39M in cash for 2024. That cash won’t be available to otherwise improve the roster.
Could Wilson be traded?
While it would be difficult, it’s not out of the question. However, a trade would have to be completed by March 21, 2024, before the Broncos must exercise his option bonus.
The option bonus accounts for $22M of the money Wilson is due in 2024. If he is traded before March 21, the acquiring team takes the option bonus, along with his $17M base salary.
If traded by that date, the Broncos would take a $46M dead money charge, though they would still lose $10M in cap space. However, the cap space lost wouldn’t require gutting the roster.
There are two catches, though. First, the trade would have to be completed by March 21, or the Broncos would have to eat the $22M option bonus. Second, Wilson has a no-trade clause, meaning he would have to approve of any trade.
A trade cannot be given a post-June 1 designation. Cap effects from trades are immediate. Also, a trade taking place after June 1 is highly unlikely, given that teams will want to have their QB situations determined by that point.
Could Denver renegotiate with Wilson?
Don’t count on Wilson agreeing to a pay cut on the $39M in cash he’s due. That’s fully guaranteed money, and he doesn’t have an incentive to renegotiate that amount.
It’s possible that Wilson could waive his injury guarantees in exchange for something to at least ensure the Broncos aren’t on the hook for the 2025 salary if he’s kept in 2024. However, that could be difficult to achieve.
How would a Wilson cut affect other players?
The thing to keep in mind here is that as long as the Broncos use the post-June 1 designation to cut Wilson, they don’t have to make any more moves to become cap-compliant, other than the ones they'd likely have to make, anyway.
The Broncos are likely to cut wide receiver Tim Patrick for injury reasons and defensive tackle D.J. Jones for skill reasons. Neither player has any guaranteed money in 2024, the final years of their current contracts.
The Broncos could still trade or extend certain players to lower their cap numbers. Because they already have their cash commitments for 2024, the Broncos should be able to extend certain players if they wish.
What about Denver's approach to free agency?
The reality is that the Broncos would likely need to sit out free agency in 2024, other than possibly bringing back some of their own players because they spent a lot of money in 2023.
Teams that spend a lot of money in free agency typically do so for one season, then don’t spend as much the next. After waiting a season, these teams may become active in free agency again.
While the Broncos could still be active in free agency by doing a lot of restructures, they need to be careful how far they go with them. Restructuring one contract — that is, converting base salary into a signing bonus — is fine, but restructuring a lot of contracts complicates matters.
Again, the Broncos’ cash commitments to Wilson will constrain things, but the Broncos were likely to constrain themselves in free agency even if they retained Wilson.
What does Denver's long-term situation look like?
As long as the Broncos don’t go overboard with contract restructures, they should be okay in 2025. With a post-June 1 designated cut for Wilson, they'll have to deal with the dead money from cutting him, but they will be free of any cash commitment to him.
What the Broncos’ roster actually looks like depends on whether they extend current players to lower cap numbers, re-sign pending free agents, or what they do in the draft.
In summary, there will be sunk costs from parting ways with Wilson, but the Broncos will have to ride it out. Denver can navigate the situation as long as it doesn't act like there’s a quick fix to it.
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