These Metrics Reveal Why Broncos Can't Sleep on Patriots
The New England Patriots have one of the worst records in the NFL. New England has a sound defense dragging behind it an offense that can't get anything going.
Among all NFL teams since Week 6, the Patriots' offense has the closest output to the Denver Broncos. Since Week 6, the Broncos rank 20th in EPA/Play, and the Patriots rank 24th, while the win probability is between 10-90%.
When it comes to success rate, the Patriots rank 20th, with the Broncos right behind them at 21st. Denver ranks 21st in EPA/Dropback while New England sits at 23rd, but the dropback success rate has the Patriots ahead of the Broncos (24th to 27th).
The Patriots' rushing offense ranks No. 7 in EPA/Rush and the Broncos No. 8, but Denver has a higher success rate. The Broncos rank third in success rate, while the Patriots are ninth. There are a lot of similarities between these two offenses, and it goes beyond this handful of stats.
So, who is the biggest threat to the Patriot's offense? That would go to tight end Hunter Henry, but running back Rhamondre Stevenson is a close second. However, Stevenson has a high ankle sprain and might not play on Sunday night. Ezekiel Elliott and Kevin Harris are poised to be New England's top backs, so Henry remains the biggest threat to Denver's defense.
The Broncos got exposed by Detroit Lions rookie Sam LaPorta to the tune of three touchdowns last week. All season long, the openings have been there, but opponents have been unable to fully exploit them for a few different reasons, like the Broncos' pass rush, which wasn't a factor against the Lions, leading to the exposure and tight-end explosion.
Henry has been the Patriots' biggest weapon in the passing game, leading in targets (62), catches (42), and touchdowns (six). He ranks second in receiving yards, averaging a hair under 10.0 yards per catch with 419 yards. The Patriots have lined him up in the slot on 48.1% of his snaps, while he was the inline tight end for 43.5% of his snaps.
This year, the Broncos have been the NFL's worst defense when it comes to covering tight ends, though it's been dragged down some by the LaPorta game. With Dever's issues, there's an opening for the Patriots to get Henry involved and to use his versatility to help keep the offense moving.
It's worth noting that Henry is dealing with a knee injury, which kept him out of Wednesday's practice.
On the defensive side of the ball, there are many more threats as that unit is clicking. New England's strengths directly attack the Broncos' bread and butter on offense. It's on Sean Payton and Russell Wilson to get the offense working because trying to force the strength-against-strength issue can lead to problems for this Broncos offense.
Overall, there isn't a single player who stands out as the biggest individual threat on the Patriots' defense. There are too many to choose from.
New England has guys playing at a high level at each level on defense. However, the Patriots have multiple key defenders on the injury report, with a few of them not practicing this week thus far, which is worth monitoring as the game approaches.
Despite the team's 3-11 record, the Patriots' defense has been great this season. In most analytical categories, this unit ranks in the top half of the NFL, and it boasts the best-rushing defense in EPA/Rush and ranks second in rushing success rate.
The Patriots will make life difficult for the Broncos' rushing attack with how their linebackers and safeties fill against the run, and their defensive line doesn't allow large running lanes. New England's two weakest areas against the run are behind the center and the left guard, which is where the Broncos have their highest and third-highest success rates this season.
The Broncos will need to use a quicker passing game to counter the Patriots' defense. This would be a great game for Jerry Jeudy to be heavily involved, and getting Marvin Mims Jr. the ball on short routes and not just screens, deep shots, or end-arounds should be a priority. Those two players can attack an area where the Patriots' defense is lacking: speed and quickness.
On top of that, using running back Jaleel McLaughlin's speed can be beneficial, but the Broncos can't force touches. That's been an issue since Week 8, and NFL defenses have caught on to the predictability of there being an 80% chance of McLaughlin either getting the ball or being targeted when he's on the field.
The Broncos can't spam Javonte Williams as they have been, as he's simply just played into the teeth of the defense, and his efficiency has gone completely down the drain. Denver can still use him, but his snaps and touches need to be cut into over the rest of the season. This is a good game to turn to McLaughlin and even Samaje Perine with his physicality and versatility.
Don't overlook the Patriots because they sit with a 3-11 record. That defense is dangerous and can attack the Broncos.
This is one of the tougher defenses the Broncos will have faced this season and the toughest one remaining. The Broncos can still run away with the game, though, but they need their defense to solidify again and even force some takeaways. It's worth noting that the Patriots have a turnover rate of 1.6 per game.
So, who is the biggest threat to the Broncos in this game? Bill Belichick. Among all his notoriety, Belichick is also famous for his uncanny consistency in taking away opponents' No. 1 weapon and forcing them to win in other ways.
Payton and Wilson have to anticipate that. This game is where Denver's coaching on all sides of the ball must be great. Execution, of course, matters, but the Broncos' coaches have to be on point to put the team in a position to have the best chance of success on the field.
Denver should win this one, but it won't be a cakewalk. The Patriots are still a dangerous team, and they just gave the Kansas City Chiefs a tough time. However, the Broncos absolutely have to win this one if they want a realistic chance at the playoffs.
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