New Metric Predicts Broncos' Odds of Landing Comp Picks in 2024
Per Nick Korte of Over The Cap, the Denver Broncos seem to be in good shape when it comes to the number of rostered players set to hit free agency. In terms of 2023 snaps poised for free agency, the Broncos have the ninth-fewest at 22%.
So what does it mean?
In terms of the NFL's compensatory pick formula, NFL teams essentially get picks back in the draft on veterans lost that they're not able to replace in free agency. Teams know how to work the compensatory formula and have utilized it in their overall free agency and roster construction decisions.
The Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots are ranked quite highly in terms of 2023 snaps set to hit free agency. As a clarification, this is talking about only the players who are set to hit unrestricted free agency, or who have contracts that void that make those players unrestricted. It doesn't include restricted free agents (RFAs) or exclusive rights free agents (ERFAs).
The Ravens, at 43%, and the Patriots, at 33%, are ranked second and sixth, respectively, in terms of 2023 snaps set to hit free agency. The Tennessee Titans, after not being much of a factor in the compensatory pick, rank first-most in terms of 2023 snaps poised to hit free agency at 44%.
In terms of the AFC West, there could be significant upheaval with the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers set to have 32% of 2023 snaps hit free agency, ranking ninth and 10th-most, respectively. Indeed, if teams follow their usual M.O., the Broncos would not figure to be much of a factor in the compensatory pick formula, while the Ravens are, based on the volume and quality of their free agents.
Of course, the caliber of a player hitting free agency matters.
As it stands, per Over The Cap, the Broncos have 15 pending UFAs, with center Lloyd Cushenberry III representing the most in terms of potential snaps to have to replace at 99.6%. Tight end Adam Trautman (77.4% of 2023 snaps), linebacker Josey Jewell (68.6%), cornerback Fabian Moreau (55.9%), and safety Kareem Jackson (54.9%) have all played over 50% of their unit's snaps and are poised for free agency.
Defensive lineman Jonathan Harris, although he has played in 49.7% of snaps, is due to hit restricted free agency. Cornerback K’Waun Williams has not played any snaps this season due to an ankle injury sustained in preseason, but he did play in 14 games last year.
Other important players set to hit free agency include kicker Wil Lutz and safety P.J. Locke, although, for the purposes of this article, they have only played 34.6% and 33.7% of snaps, respectively. In terms of the Broncos' other players, youngsters have stepped up in their place on cheaper contracts.
In the NFL, if teams are unable to replace departing free agents with better talent, they look to get younger and cheaper players at the position as a fallback. Considering the restraints that Broncos head coach Sean Payton and GM George Paton will have to work with in the offseason, it figures that Locke and Lutz should be brought back, especially considering their projected costs.
Jewell is a locker room leader who brings high football IQ and ‘stirs the drink’ of the defense and would be better for the Broncos to bring back at the right price, while Cushenberry has improved to the extent where there is a case to be made for the team to at least consider a second contract for him, although it would still probably behoove them to move on from him. Cushenberry would also figure to get the highest salary of the Broncos’ impending free agents.
In addition, with the Broncos projected to be almost $20 million over the salary cap heading into the 2024 league year, the front office would at least have plenty of room to maneuver in terms of cuts or trades of underperforming players. These players, for compensatory formula purposes, would not factor in and would, therefore, not be canceled out by any free-agent acquisitions.
This would mean that any significant changes to the Broncos' roster in free agent terms would likely have to come from these trades or cuts, while nailing the draft picks would become even more crucial. On the field, with a greater number of players being versed in Payton’s offense and Vance Joseph’s scheme on defense, the 2024 Broncos shouldn't have the teething problems that plagued them early on in 2023, with the change in culture carrying through.
So how else could the Broncos overhaul the roster in free agency? Per Over The Cap, the Broncos are ranked middle-of-the-road in terms of the ability to generate cap space from simple restructures, which converts payments into pro-rated signing bonuses over the remaining years of the existing contract, and typically don't require the input of players.
In cap terms, the Broncos have the ability to generate $49.1M in cap space, which would reduce them to almost $23M for 2024. That would be the maximum and would rely on simple contract restructures with players like Russell Wilson, left tackle Garett Bolles, and safety Justin Simmons.
However, the story of the Broncos' 2024 offseason should be one of small changes and evolution — not revolution.
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