PFF Lays Out the Only Way Broncos Can 'Shut a Lot of Us Up'
The Denver Broncos are no joke. Not anymore.
While the organization was esteemed as one of the NFL's darlings for decades — with three World Championships, eight AFC crowns, and 15 AFC West titles (nine more than the next-best division rival) — everything that has come in the wake of Super Bowl 50 has been underwhelming. Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs have rattled off seven straight division crowns and appeared in three Super Bowls, winning two.
The Broncos may still own two more AFC titles than Kansas City, but they sadly devolved into a national punchline in the wake of the Russell Wilson trade and the botched Nathaniel Hackett hire. The ridicule intensified amid Denver's disastrous 1-5 start to the 2023 season, especially after trading for high-profile head coach Sean Payton.
Little more than a month ago, the Broncos appeared to be a team lacking talent and once again approaching a forgettable season. That was the narrative outside of Dove Valley, anyway.
Internally, with all the jokes and doubts from outside (including from yours truly), the Broncos never lost focus on their goals and who they could be in 2023. It would have been easy to close up shop after getting absolutely embarrassed by the Miami Dolphins in Week 3 to the tune of a 70-20 beatdown.
No one would have been shocked if this year became yet another 'lost season' after a confounding home loss to Hackett, Zack Wilson, and the New York Jets in Week 5. But instead of giving up, the Broncos kept working.
Now on a four-game winning streak, the Broncos are 5-5 and in the thick of the AFC playoff picture for the first time since 2015. So, what should Denver’s goals be now that the team fought to become competitively relevant?
According to Pro Football Focus' Trevor Sikkema, the Broncos would “shut a lot of us up" if they could keep stacking wins and do the improbable by making the playoffs in the loaded AFC. Improbable, sure, but with each passing week, it's becoming less and less so.
On paper, the Broncos' 2022 roster looked good enough for a playoff run. Instead, it was an embarrassing disaster in basically every way. A major coaching shake-up and one 70-20 loss later, the Broncos feel like a different team as it stands today. They’ve played the third-toughest schedule to this point and stand at 5-5 with four wins in a row. It also feels like they’re not close to their offensive ceiling yet, either.
This team — largely due to the Russell Wilson contract and how bad that all started — has been the butt of a lot of NFL jokes over the past year. But they can shut a lot of us up by making it into the postseason after that 2022 circus.
After early-season calls for Denver to “blow it up” and “tank” in order to get in position to take one of the top quarterbacks in the 2024 NFL draft class — like Drake Maye or Caleb Williams — or even wide receiver superstar Marvin Harrison Jr., tight end Brock Bowers, or a blue-chip offensive tackle like Joe Alt or Olu Fashanu, Broncos Country has since traded its mock draft simulator for playoff machines.
The Broncos still have an uphill battle to make the playoffs this season. According to PFF, Denver’s chances of making the playoffs currently stand at just 26%.
Those are not great odds, but they're immensely better than they were just one month ago. Payton likely doesn’t have his players and staff looking too far in the future or paying attention to any playoff odds, though. Just keep winning, and good things will happen.
If Denver does make the playoffs and shuts everyone up who was clowning the organization over the last 16-ish months, the next two weeks will go a long way in helping its postseason odds. The Broncos currently sit behind each of their next two upcoming opponents — the Cleveland Browns and the Houston Texans.
PFF’s playoff prediction model has a massive swing for Denver depending on this week’s game vs. Cleveland. A Broncos victory pushes their playoff odds all the way up to 41%. A loss, however, drops the Broncos’ chances all the way down to 12%.
The Broncos have the chance to not only earn the head-to-head tiebreakers against two AFC opponents they'll likely need to leapfrog in order to make the postseason, but given Denver’s 2-4 standing vs. AFC opponents thus far, the next two games are also nearly must-wins. These two games are paramount relative to the myriad playoff scenarios and tiebreakers in place if multiple teams finish with the same record.
Even if Denver doesn’t make the playoffs, the team has done a lot to convert the negative tropes surrounding this team to a discussion of redemption. Payton sat out a year, and initially, it looked like he had a poor team to start this season, but the Broncos now own the longest win streak in the NFL.
Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph was all but fired by every fan in Broncos Country following the embarrassing game in Miami (as well as the entire stretch of putrid defensive football Weeks 1 to 5), but he now boasts the ninth-ranked defense in EPA/Play over the team's current wins streak.
Meanwhile, Wilson went from commonly being called "washed" to leading game-winning drives with clutch plays in the fourth quarter and flashing glimpses of the Russ of old.
The Broncos may not make the playoffs given the hole they dug themselves in to start the season, but they're doing a great job of changing the narrative in the Mile High City. As PFF intimates, Denver has mostly silenced the national lampoons, but nothing short of a playoff berth will shut them all up for good.
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