A Playoff Berth Shouldn't Preclude Broncos From a Rebuild
The Denver Broncos have come a long way since their 1-4 start to the season. Now the Broncos are on a four-game winning streak, and the playoffs are not out of the question.
While there's plenty of reason for excitement, given that the Broncos have knocked off three playoff contenders in the last three games, the organization still needs to exercise some caution when moving forward.
The Broncos aren't the first team in recent history to come off a poor season, hire a new head coach then experience success. In fact, one can look to the last two teams the Broncos faced — the Buffalo Bills and the Minnesota Vikings — to notice two teams that changed head coaches but, even after playoff trips, didn't suddenly change course and go from a soft rebuild to a quick reload.
The Bills made the playoffs in 2016 but still opted to trade their veteran quarterback Tyrod Taylor and position themselves to move up the board to draft Josh Allen. The Vikings, meanwhile, surprised many by winning the NFC North in 2022 but still dealt with Kirk Cousins as though they were going to move on after 2023.
Both teams moved on from other key players, even with their playoff trips. They didn't act like they were suddenly a few players away from a deep run.
The Broncos could find themselves in a similar situation. However, if Denver does make the playoffs, it should properly assess where the team is actually at rather than presume it just needs to make a couple more splashy moves to ensure a deep run.
The good news is that Sean Payton has brought a winning attitude back to the Broncos. He and defensive coordinator Vance Joseph made changes to the defense, which went from being one of the worst in the NFL to one that has excelled at forcing takeaways.
Finally, Payton has gotten quarterback Russell Wilson to settle down and play better. Wilson has been better with his decision-making and isn't forcing throws.
But what the Broncos need to keep in mind is that the team's current pace isn't sustainable for the long term. The offense needs to do a better job of finishing drives, particularly when it's given good field position. The defense still has issues in defending the run and is prone to giving up the big play.
The one thing the Broncos don't have to do is go into a full rebuild. But they do need to ask themselves which players can truly be part of the team going forward, partly because they're projected to be over the cap by about $12.5 million in 2024 once 51 players are under contract — and that assumes the base cap jumps to $256M.
While we'll get a better idea about who should stick around for 2024, the Broncos must continue to monitor the QB situation and see how Wilson fares down the stretch. Week 12's matchup with the Cleveland Browns could be key, given that they have the best defense in the NFL this season.
The Broncos also must figure out which players entering the final years of their contracts in 2024 are worth extending, along with which pending free agents must be retained. Preferably, the Broncos should focus on the younger players, though a case could be made for keeping a couple of older players.
By no means should the Broncos or their fans apologize for winning. Fans would be wise to keep perspective and remember that the roster evaluation process is still underway. Don't assume a reload, rather than a soft rebuild, is now in order.
The remaining seven games should give the Broncos a better idea about where things stand. But just as other teams didn't assume all was well after making the playoffs in the first year with a new head coach, the Broncos shouldn't either.
Remember, the key is not to just simply make the playoffs this year but to be a consistent contender, year in and year out. We'll find out over the next seven games if the Broncos will make the playoffs in 2023.
But whether that means the Broncos will remain a playoff contender is another question. That's why Broncos fans shouldn't assume that if the team makes the playoffs this year, all it needs to do is reload in 2024.
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