Why RFA Tendering Then Trading WR Tim Patrick Makes Most Sense for Broncos in 2021
Early this season, the Denver Broncos lost Courtland Sutton, their best wide receiver, to an ACL injury. In Sutton's absence, Tim Patrick has taken a higher percentage of snaps and has shown he can be effective as the big target who can go up and get passes thrown over the top.
With Sutton set to return from injury next season, and entering the last season of his rookie contract, and Patrick about to become a restricted free agent, the Broncos are faced with a dilemma: Who is the receiver who should be the long-term option?
Tender Then Trade
As I've said before, the best move the Broncos can make is to tender Patrick at the second-round level, then trade him.
The issue at hand is that, once Sutton returns to the lineup, Patrick is going to head back to his role as a depth player, and it's possible Patrick will want the chance to start.
Patrick isn't a player who can take the place of KJ Hamler on the field, because he doesn't have the speed Hamler has. Patrick is also not somebody you put on the field to replace Jerry Jeudy, as Jeudy's route running is too valuable to lose on too many snaps, to say nothing of draft pedigree in both cases.
Again, Patrick's best role is as the big target who can go up and get passes thrown over the top and as a possession receiver. We've seen, time and again, that he's most effective in that X-receiver role.
Already Outkicked his Coverage
Patrick had just six starts in his first two seasons and just 39 receptions as a depth player. Compare that to 2020, with him replacing Sutton, and his 43 receptions through 13 games already exceed that total.
It's hard to see Patrick approaching that tally again next season when Sutton is back in the lineup. In all likelihood, Patrick's numbers drop down to where they were in his first two seasons.
So why not roll with Patrick and maybe trade Sutton? That's a bad idea because Sutton is the better, more dynamic talent and receivers have shown they can come back from ACL injuries and still play at a high level.
But why not keep both, you say, and ensure you have the depth? After all, won't Patrick be pretty cheap next season? Not exactly.
Too Much to Pay for Similar Wideouts
There's a chance that both will cost the same amount to keep, assuming the Broncos use the second-round tender on Patrick (estimated to be about $3 million next season).
The NFL's new collective bargaining agreement will introduce proven performance escalators for second-round picks such as Sutton (who was drafted in 2018). Because Sutton has a Pro Bowl berth on his resume, he could see escalators that give him a salary in line with the second-round tender.
That means the Broncos would be poised to pay two receivers the same amount when they're likely to cut into each other's snaps, given their similar skill-set. It doesn't make much sense to pull Jeudy or Hamler from three-receiver sets to get both Sutton and Patrick on the field, considering what Jeudy and Hamler bring to the table, which so obviously distinguish them as unique.
Compensatory Formula Doesn't Apply
Why not avoid tendering Patrick and let him count into the compensatory draft pick formula? That's because if you don't tender RFAs, they don't count toward that formula.
And keeping Patrick for 2021, then letting him depart in 2022, is no guarantee the Broncos would get a comp pick. You simply can't project what he'll get in free agency in 2022, nor project what the Broncos will do in free agency in 2022.
Tender Then Trade is Best Option
That brings me back to my preference with Patrick. The Broncos should tender him at the second-round level and give him permission to seek a trade.
Obviously, the Broncos won't get a second-round pick in return, but they could start the asking price at a third-round pick, in hopes of getting, say, a fourth-round pick in the 2021 draft.
Getting that extra draft pick would allow the Broncos to add another receiver for depth, preferably one who can return punts and kicks. Or perhaps a receiver who could push DaeSean Hamilton, who has been solid at times, but hasn't shown consistent play.
Bottom Line
The Broncos could then move forward with Sutton returning to the lineup, with the hopes that he will prove worthy of an extension. With any luck, we'll get to find out how things look with a healthy Sutton, Jeudy, Hamler, and tight end Noah Fant taking the field together on most snaps.
I know it's tough to part ways with a guy like Patrick, who has done some good things as a Bronco. But there's only so much room available on the roster, plus you have to think about the long term as much as the short term.
Going with Sutton moving forward is really the Broncos' best long-term option. The Broncos would be best served to get what they can for Patrick while his value is high.
Follow Bob on Twitter @BobMorrisSports and @MileHighHuddle.
