Is Sean Payton Done Building Broncos' Roster? A New Stat Provides the Answer

The Denver Broncos saw one of the league's lowest roster turnover percentages, but what does it mean?

Nov 26, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton talks with safety P.J. / Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Traditionally, every offseason is marked by roster overhauls. The Denver Broncos experienced a significant turnover in Sean Payton's first year, but in Year 2, the Broncos retained a substantial 78.2% of their roster from 2023, including the practice squad. 

Over The Cap founder Jason Fitzgerald illustrated the top 10 teams with the highest percentage of returning players. The Broncos ranked fourth highest, behind the Green Bay Packers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Indianapolis Colts 

Top 10 teams in percent of players from 2023 being on the offseason roster in 2024 (includes 2023 practice squad) pic.twitter.com/CQGRe8fGS1

— Jason_OTC (@Jason_OTC) May 6, 2024

The Broncos overachieved in 2023 thanks to a historic defensive run over a five-game win streak. This kept Denver in the playoff hunt but it faltered down the stretch, going 2-4 in the final six games. That collapse had many thinking the roster would be overhauled, but that hasn't been the case. 

When you look at the Broncos' high percentage of returning players, it could raise concerns about the roster. Many viewed the Broncos as a team needing to be torn down and rebuilt.

After all, of the 10 teams listed by Fitzgerald, only one had a worse record than the Broncos (Arizona Cardinals). And Denver was one of four teams not to make the playoffs. So, what should fans make of this?

Even with 78.2% of 2023 players returning, the concerns arise when you examine the players who did depart this offseason. Gone are team captains and leaders — quarterback Russell Wilson, center Lloyd Cushenberry III, safety Justin Simmons, and linebacker Josey Jewell — as well as other experienced vets like cornerback Fabien Moreau. All five names were starters last year.

Denver also opted not to retain a few other key rotational pieces. These could be critical losses, and the Broncos may not have done enough to replace them. 

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By examining who Denver retained and who it didn't, the 78.2% of returning players become more contextual, and what Payton is trying to do becomes clear. The Broncos are churning through starters and some key rotational pieces to upgrade the starting lineup, with a focus on raising the roster's floor by keeping their depth largely intact. 

Wilson is out, with Bo Nix and Zach Wilson in. Payton and Wilson didn’t work well together, and there were significant differences in what they wanted on offense.

That led the Broncos to part ways with Wilson even in the face of having to eat a ton of dead money. That financial impact also plays a part in the Broncos retaining 78.2% of their players and keeping the depth intact. 

With Denver's financial situation, the team couldn't go out and make dramatic changes to the roster via free agency. This led to some less-than-stellar replacement options, like the part-time starter Brandon Jones replacing a stalwart like Simmons at safety. Journeyman linebacker Cody Barton, along with Drew Sanders, Justin Strnad, and Jonas Griffith will compete to replace Jewell, and the Broncos will host a three-way competition to replace Cushenberry on the O-line. 

The Broncos kept their roster intact thanks to a large number of lower-cost players. However, the Broncos didn’t have the funds to make the changes that many were expecting them to make. Instead, they made targeted changes, including multiple additions, to transform one of the NFL's worst defensive lines into a significantly better unit. 

The question is, will the Broncos make those major changes in 2025?

The Broncos are projected to have over $100 million in salary cap space and with Nix's rookie quarterback contract, they have a crucial financial piece of the puzzle in place to allow them to spend and make those huge changes. It would not be surprising to see the Broncos go from 78.2% of the roster being kept intact to pushing for one of the lowest percentages next year. 

Looking across the NFL, the Washington Commanders have only 57% returning, for the lowest mark, followed closely by the Los Angeles Chargers at 58.2%. While the expectation shouldn’t be that low for the Broncos, somewhere in the 60-65% range is likely, where the other eight teams in the bottom 10 find themselves. 

The Takeaway

Continuity is a good thing, especially with a rookie quarterback in town, but the Broncos don’t have a good roster overall. This team needs to make significant changes in order to take a step forward, and it'll be able to make those changes next year.

Another point that suggests a lower percentage of returning players? The Broncos have 53 players set to be free agents in 2025, while 83 are officially under contract. 

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