Broncos Shouldn't Give Up 2024 Draft Picks to Acquire Sean Payton
The Sean Payton sweepstakes are in full swing, with the Denver Broncos supposedly the favorites. Other teams like the Arizona Cardinals and Carolina Panthers remain in the hunt.
But hiring a new general manager seems to have hindered the Cardinals' efforts to find a head coach. With the Los Angeles Chargers, Dallas Cowboys, and Los Angeles Rams keeping their current head coaches, the three jobs Payton was rumored to desire the most did not become available.
When that happened, there was a shift in what was getting leaked through the media, with Denver emerging as the rumored preferred landing spot for the long-time New Orleans Saints head coach.
Of course, with Payton still under contract, whatever team does land him will have to trade for him. It's been reported that Saints GM Mickey Loomis would be looking for similar compensation to what the Tampa Bay Buccanneers gave up 20 years ago to the then-Oakland Raiders in exchange for Jon Gruden.
As a refresher, the Raiders sent two first-round, two second-round picks, and $8 million for Gruden. ESPN's Adam Schefter, in a conversation 104.3 The FAN's Mike Evans and Mark Schlereth in Denver, essentially said that isn't going to happen because Payton will be handling the trade for himself with Loomis and won't want to hurt his new team.
So we get to the potential compensation, and the rumors are that a first and third-rounder will get it done for the Broncos and Payton. So if that's all it takes, the Broncos can go on and get it done. If Payton does choose Denver.
However, it would be wise of Payton and the Broncos to keep those draft picks for this year's NFL draft, even with only six picks currently, instead of splitting it up over the 2023 and 2024 drafts for a few reasons.
The 2023 Argument
It will hurt going from six to four picks in the 2023 draft, with the first one not being until early Round 3, where both of Denver's third-round picks sit. Even so, it's better to get out from the cost of the trade this year than next.
If Payton is able to fix Russell Wilson, he'd have a full load of draft picks in 2024 to finish building the team how he sees fit. If he doesn't fit Wilson, he has a full load of picks that can be used to go after a quarterback in the 2024 draft. So, whatever happens at the quarterback position, Denver is better suited to having all of its picks in 2024.
For the 2023 season, Denver is in a solid spot financially regarding the salary cap. The release of four players — Graham Glasgow, Ronald Darby, Chase Edmonds, and Jacob Martin — would add a little over $30 million to the salary cap. It's also worth noting that having the richest owners in the NFL makes it easier to work around the salary cap and almost makes it seem like it isn't real.
So with that, Payton can go out and work on improving the team with key free agents, especially on the offensive line, to try and turn this team around in 2023 while keeping everything in Denver in case things fall short.
Of course, by trading away players, Denver could always add more picks to the 2023 or 2024 draft. There are more options after the 2023 season for trading players away, so that is one reason to split up whatever New Orleans asks in exchange for Payton between this and next season.
However, having your original pick in each round and being able to add more would give the Broncos more options. If, come the trade deadline, Denver suffers a severe injury at a critical position (knock on wood), having all its picks to work with could also help the team acquire someone and then recoup those picks.
Another reason to keep the compensation to New Orleans limited to this year's draft is the value of the picks. We know, and the Saints know, the Broncos hold the 68th and 69th draft pick this year, early third-round picks.
Those are more valuable than the unknown of a 2024 pick. That difference in value could keep the Saints from asking for another pick on Day 3 either this year or next year, and instead being comfortable with the first and third-rounder (preferably the 69th pick).
On top of that, the 2023 draft class is solid, but many key positions the Broncos will be looking at lack depth. For example, most of the quality offensive tackles are projected to be top-64 picks, and the depth of the position isn't great. The same goes for the interior offensive line. The exceptions are cornerback, running back, edge rusher, linebacker, and maybe wide receiver.
What it really comes down to is Wilson. Giving up a first and third-round this year would mean Denver is going all in on 2023 to fix everything around Wilson and turn this team around. To do that, you will want to bring in veterans at critical positions instead of relying on rookies, with the rookies being there to improve the depth and develop.
If Wilson fails under Payton in 2023, with the Broncos building what they can around him, having all of your original picks to fall back on in 2024 would be better than going without the third-round pick.
Bottom Line
If Payton were to fix Wilson and remains the starter beyond 2023, then the Broncos could use all those 2024 picks it held onto to shore up their depth and start developing players for 2025 and beyond. Also, having the influx of rookie contracts could help ease any potential salary cap issues the Broncos could run into down the road.
There is a case to be made, both for splitting it up the Saints' ask for Payton over 2023 and 2024 and keeping them in one year. However, the better case for the long haul is to keep the picks relinquished in exchange for Payton's rights limited to 2023 and deal with having just four picks.
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