Broncos' Schedule Deep-Dive: Weeks 1-9 | The Defense Should Feast
The success of the 2021 Denver Broncos rests squarely on the shoulders of the defense. In a quarterback-driven league, the Broncos are deficient in that all-important position.
Denver has two players vying for the starting role, both of whom ranked in the bottom half of the league in most meaningful statistical categories last season. Unless there is a significant improvement to the quarterback situation, Vic Fangio will need his defense to do the heavy lifting if he wants to be coaching the Broncos in 2022.
Is the defense up to the task? The roster of defensive players indicates that the Broncos are poised for a dominant defensive season.
Von Miller, Bradley Chubb, Dre’Mont Jones, and Shelby Harris will provide a relentless pass rush, crucial to winning in the pass-happy NFL. The secondary is loaded with talent to compliment that pass rush. This combination is just what the doctor ordered to successfully navigate the season.
A deep-dive into the Broncos' upcoming slate of opponents using 2020 play-by-play data reveals some interesting information that bodes well for the defense. The Broncos could make some noise this season if the offense doesn’t completely crumble.
Week 1: at New York Giants
The Giants were not a great team last season as they went 6-10. Daniel Jones is struggling to live up t0 the first-round draft capital used to select him in 2019.
The Giants’ offensive line hasn’t done him many favors though, as he was sacked 45 times last season. The team did little in free agency and the draft to rectify this situation. However, the return of offensive tackle Nate Solder may help as he opted out of the 2020 season.
Getting after the quarterback is the key area that the Broncos can exploit to carry the team to a victory to open the season. The Giants gave up three or more sacks in a game nine times last year and they lost all but two of those games.
Many of these sacks led to the copious amount of fumbles by Jones. The combination of the Broncos' pass rush and the stalwart secondary will give Jones and the Giants fits. Even on the road, the Broncos should be able to lean on their defense for a victory.
Week 2: Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars were a bad team last season. Jacksonville won its season opener and then lost the next 15 games, leading the team to landing Clemson phenom QB Trevor Lawerence No. 1 overall.
The play-by-play data did not reveal anything that wasn’t particularly evident in attacking the offense, but the Jaguars had a roster that wasn’t competitive last season. They improved the most important position in the draft, but the Broncos' defense will be facing the first overall pick early in the season, likely before Lawrence is really comfortable in the offense and the speed of the NFL. If the Broncos cannot seal a victory in this game, there is something very wrong.
Week 3: New York Jets
The Jets were another bad team that has attempted to fix the quarterback position by taking BYU's Zach Wilson No. 2 overall. The Broncos faced the Jets in Week 4 last season and the defense did its job netting six sacks, helping an offense that started Brett Rypien in his first-ever professional football game.
The Broncos' offense coughed up the ball three times and the defense still held the Jets to 192 net passing yards. This was a defense that was without starters Miller, Jurrell Casey, and A.J. Bouye. At home, with a healthy defense, the Broncos should claim a victory.
Week 4: Baltimore Ravens
This is where the play-by-play data got very interesting. It's also where the Broncos' schedule gets intriguing. Unlike the previous three opponents, the Ravens are a good team.
Baltimore has a solid quarterback, is well-coached, and possesses an explosive offense. The Ravens had 44 rushing or passing plays that were of 25 yards or greater, which ranked them No. 3 in the NFL last year.
This the key to defeating the Ravens. Limiting their big plays. The Ravens had at least three big plays in nine games in 2020 and won all but one of them or 89%. In the remaining seven games, when they had less than three such plays, the Ravens won only three or 43%. Limiting the big plays is not a guarantee of victory, but it is an important factor.
The Broncos, with a depleted defense in 2020, gave up only three big plays in a game six times. This ranked them in the top half of all defenses. Remember, that defense had many injuries and at one point were down to their No. 5 and 6 cornerback options.
This 2021 defense is poised to limit big plays with much more effectiveness. The Broncos will have to play a good game all around to beat a good Ravens team, but the key to winning is the limiting of big plays. If they're successful, the Broncos could surprise the NFL world in Week 4 and pull off the upset at home.
Week 5: at Pittsburgh Steelers
It surprised the NFL world when the Steelers started out the season 11-0 in 2020. It was fool's gold, however, as they dropped five out of their final six games including being shown the door in the first round of the playoffs. How were they able to rattle off 11 straight if the team was really not as good as their record indicated? Turnover margin.
The Steelers lived and died by the turnover margin in 2020. They were plus-9 in turnover margin on the season. Taking a closer look, the importance that turnover margin played in their wins on a game-by-game basis was dramatic.
In their 12 wins, only one came with a negative turnover margin. In their four losses, the Steelers lost the turnover battle in all but one and in that game, both teams turned it over twice. One of the Steelers' turnovers in that game was a devastating 51-yard interception return for a touchdown with 52 seconds left in the first half.
The Broncos' defense cannot do anything about their team’s offensive turnover woes, but they can manufacture extra opportunities for the offense by creating turnovers. Denver's defense has not been great at takeaways the past two years, but that is poised to change this season. Here is an article explaining why. This is the key to success versus the Steelers.
Week 6: Las Vegas Raiders
The Broncos' defense has struggled with the Raiders more often than not in the past two seasons as they have lost three of the last four contests. The Raiders have made some strange moves through the draft and free agency and it is difficult to see where they have improved from last year.
One thing is certain, Las Vegas' success has been tied to its running game. When the Raiders' running game struggles, the team finds it difficult to win, especially if they struggle early in the game. In their eight losses, they failed to tally over 100 yards per game (excluding QB scrambles) in five. Of their eight wins, seven showed success on the ground.
This isn’t just a case of running the clock out late in games either. In five of the eight losses, the Raiders struggled to get their running game going in the first quarter or failed to keep the rushing momentum into the second quarter. In their wins, they typically got the running game going early. The Broncos' defense needs to shut down Vegas' running game if they want to pull out a victory in Week 6.
Week 7: at Cleveland Browns
The Browns had an interesting analysis. On average, Cleveland rushed the ball significantly more on first down (60/40 split). In their five losses, the Browns threw the ball significantly more on first down.
In fact, in every instance that they threw the ball on first down 40% or greater, Cleveland lost all but one game (Giants). This isn’t data being skewed because the Browns were behind in the second half and needed to pass. In these losing games, Cleveland passed more in the first half on first down than they did in the games they won.
It would seem that the Browns' game plan in those losses was not the correct approach. It isn’t that they need to rely on their rushing attack to win, but Cleveland does need to have a greater balance between run and pass on first down.
The Broncos could use this to their advantage. Denver should dare the Browns to pass on first down. The secondary this season is built to handle the passing game. The Broncos have invested money and valuable draft capital in making it a top-notch position group and it should pay dividends against the Browns.
Week 8: Washington Football Team
The play-by-play data did not reveal any particular insights that the Broncos can exploit. However, this will be a defensive contest. WFT has assembled a very good defensive unit as has the Broncos.
Ryan Fitzpatrick can get hot and put up big numbers in stretches, so Washington could have the quarterback advantage, but typically those hot streaks are short-lived so it should not be counted on in Week 8. This game will come down to which team has the best defense.
Week 9: at Dallas Cowboys
Like the Browns analysis, the Cowboys struggle when they are not balanced in rush vs. pass on first down. Every game that they were heavy on the pass on first down, the Cowboys lost. It didn’t matter who was behind center either as this held true through each different starting quarterback.
The Broncos' defense could follow a similar plan as in the Browns game to goad the Cowboys to try their luck through the air on the earliest down. If Denver can be successful, this could be a road victory.
The Broncos' first-half schedule is favorable as they face only a few good teams, based on last season’s records. Those few good teams have weaknesses that can be exploited by the defense, which is the strongest unit on the Broncos. If they don’t enter Week 10 with at least six victories, it should be considered a failure. Next up Weeks 10-18.
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