Broncos' Situation with Drew lock Requires a Nuanced View | Here's Why
In a previous article, I emphasized how the Denver Broncos may not have the luxury of time when it comes to evaluating Drew Lock and this is especially pressing when considering GM John Elway’s contract. The Broncos were built to be competitive from 2021 to 2023.
Competitive windows in the NFL are precious and the Broncos need to find the right ingredients to open their own window of opportunity. The modern game is so geared towards quarterback play and considering the impact of unpaid production given the salary cap and rookie wage structure, the easiest way to compete is to find a great quarterback on a cheap rookie structure and build around him over the entire duration of his rookie deal.
It's true that there are other ways that teams can be built to compete, especially with a veteran talent at quarterback that is able to maximize those around him with cheap but talented players on defense and/or at the skill positions, but the window is open for long-term building around a rookie QB.
Pumping the Brakes on Hyperbole
When it comes to the Broncos and Lock, it is important to not get carried away, either too positively or too negatively. More than anything else, the 2020 season is about the evaluation of Lock and getting to the offseason with a more complete picture of knowing whether he is ‘the guy’ or not.
If the Broncos and their young skill-position players show growth together, they could push for playoffs. If they don’t and the Broncos end up with a top-5 pick, the team could get a blue-chip talent, or a replacement at quarterback. We know that Lock will rightfully get the remaining games in 2020 to show what he can do and the chips will fall as they may.
Go Beyond the Box Score
If you play fantasy football and saw Lock’s 29.22 fantasy points, you might surmise that he had a good game. If you looked at the box score and saw his 313 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, 47 rushing yards and a rushing scre, you might forgive the interception.
You might even say that the game was closer than it had any right to be, especially when the Broncos were down 20-3 at the half. The 25-of-48 passes completed with 6.52 yards per attempt tell a different story, however.
Much like the Week 8 game against the Chargers, Lock’s process and fundamentals regressed, which is a concern. He bailed from clean pockets, made poor decisions when trying to extend the play or get rid of the ball, and there were times where he didn’t step up into his throws.
Recognizing pressure and being more careful with the football to avoid fumbles is another important aspect where I want to see growth in Lock, although Phillip Lindsay was no match for a blitzing Foye Oluokun and a lot more pressure was being allowed from the edge when Jake Rodgers stepped in at right tackle for an injured Demar Dotson.
The Broncos lacked balance with an anemic running game, and Lock actually finished as the team’s leading rusher against the Falcons, although Atlanta’s linebackers flowed to the ball well and forced the Broncos to run between the tackles.
Lock showed well in the fourth quarter but he needs to string a few complete games together, because right now, based on the body of work shown so far this season, these fourth quarters are anomalous. The offense needs to give the defense a solid chance of going into the half with a lead and to stop putting the team in holes which make it difficult to come back from.
Locker Room Support Remains but for How Long?
Right now, Lock has the clear backing of his teammates and coaches, but we all know that this is the 'Not For Long' league, and we saw how suddenly the locker room turned on Trevor Siemian in 2017.
The Broncos got away with it vs. the Chargers, and it is much better to learn difficult lessons in a win than a loss, but the first three quarters of play in Sunday's 34-27 loss to the Falcons followed much the same script as in the Chargers game. In the first half, as Lock himself alluded to in his post-game presser, the offense was continuously behind the chains, forcing many third-and-long situations with little chance of a conversion.
To be clear, though, Lock does show some good flashes, which are a reminder of his precocious talent. The touchdown pass to Tim Patrick and the deep ball to Jerry Jeudy down the sideline were excellent passes that were right where they needed to be at the right time. Lock made some tough throws down the stretch and took some solid hits. He didn’t give up, and it is clear that his teammates fight for him.
'Young' Excuses are Convenient but Also True
Lock is tired of hearing that the offense is young and inexperienced.
“I think we're all ready to stop the 'it's part of the process' hoopla," Lock said on Sunday in Atlanta
Most encouragingly for the Broncos’ offense was how their young receiving corps has emerged. Jeudy and KJ Hamler, in particular, are showing lots of growth and are stepping up and proving that they belong. They have complementary skill-sets, too.
Hamler has created a lot more space for the offense to operate. Tight end Albert Okwuegbunam is carving out a role in the red zone while Noah Fant is getting more chemistry with Lock. Patrick is also emerging and making plays at the X-receiver spot with Courtland Sutton out for the season.
It really is genuinely exciting to see. And it is important to stress that the Broncos have the youngest skill-position players in the entire NFL. This offense is scratching the surface of its potential.
The Broncos will all be better down the line for the current difficulties and this experience. They're all being forged by the fire of competition.
The Search for Results, Not Excuses
Of course, this far into a season, the Broncos shouldn’t be looking for excuses. Denver has the mitigating factors of the pandemic, injuries, and turnover on the offensive side of the ball, but it is not unique to just the Broncos.
It's a credit that Lock’s not seeking excuses but wants to work hard. Indeed, it is a valuable trait of a franchise QB and a good leader in general, to lead through their actions, as well as their words.
It's important to see Lock show further competency and growth from the first series. Lock can step up in the pocket and not bail, so let’s see that from the off against the Raiders. Let’s see Lock step into the throws so that the ball doesn't sail, and make better decisions by making the right reads and knowing when to extend the play and when to throw it away.
Lock flashes just enough promise to make you believe he can improve, and why he was valued by many in Broncos Country so highly. However, Lock must take the necessary steps and prove he is for sure 'the guy' because he doesn't have the luxury of time when it comes to securing his spot beyond this season.
Follow James on Twitter @JamesC_MHH and @MileHighHuddle.
