Broncos at No. 12: The Case for Trading Up & Trading Back

There's an argument to be made for either approach, but which makes the most sense for the Denver Broncos?

We're just days away from the 2024 NFL draft. As one can imagine, the draft buzz around the Denver Broncos is what they will do in the first round, including the possibility of trading up to get a quarterback.

Three QB prospects — USC's Caleb Williams, LSU's Jayden Daniels, and UNC's Drake Maye — are all thought to be worth at least a top-10 pick. Michigan's J.J. McCarthy has drawn more interest and some expect him to go in the top 10.

There's been less buzz around Oregon's Bo Nix, Washington's Michael Penix Jr., and South Carolina's Spencer Rattler. But there's no telling if a team will get desperate and take one of them early.

Given the excitement around the top four QB prospects, some fans believe the Broncos need to trade up. Others, though, believe a trade-down would be better than risking too much on a QB at this time.

While it's clear the Broncos need a QB, does that mean it's clear that they need to trade up, no matter what? Or might a trade-down be better, even though it means missing out on the four top prospects?

Let's examine the case for trading up, then the case for trading down, and figure out what really makes the most sense for the Broncos to do in this year's draft.

The Case for Trading Up

The Broncos are in great need of a quarterback, holding the No. 12 overall pick in the first round, and while it's not a top 10 pick, it's not that far out, thus giving the team the best chance to make a move up the board.

The Broncos have drafted in the top 10 in the recent past but passed on available quarterbacks. Instead, Denver has tried going with veteran quarterbacks, from a blockbuster trade to short-term solutions, and things haven't worked out. In other cases, the Broncos have drafted QBs, but at much later spots in the draft, and those selections also failed.

In recent years, we've seen Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, and C.J. Stroud all drafted in the top 10. In the cases of Mahomes and Allen, teams made a significant trade up the draft board to acquire them. Even first-round QBs such as Jared Goff and Tua Tagovailoa have done well for themselves, even if they aren't elite players.

Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts have had success with their teams — two top QBs who weren't taken early in the draft — but their success is juxtaposed with the eight drafted early who've had plenty of success, with six of those signal-callers being elite or are arguably elite.

And, yes, Brock Purdy was taken with the final pick of the draft, but Purdy is the exception, not the rule. The Broncos can't count on a QB taken late in the draft to become the guy.

If the Broncos wish to compete in the AFC West against two teams with top QBs along with quality head coaches, they need the quarterback. And considering that four quarterbacks are thought to be worth taking early, the argument is that the Broncos need to get one of them to have the best chance at being competitive.

If the Broncos believe Sean Payton can bring this team back to prominence, he needs a quarterback who he can develop. The best way to do that is draft one early. Therefore, the Broncos need to do whatever they can to move up into the top 10 to get a QB.

The Case for Trading Down

While it's true that the Broncos have been unable to find a QB to build around for the past seven years, that does not mean a QB will transform them into a contender. The Broncos have a lot of holes to fill on the roster.

When George Paton took over as general manager, one could argue the Broncos just needed a QB to turn things around. But since that time, players have gotten older, regressed, failed to be long-term guys, or moved on in free agency.

The Broncos don't just need a quarterback — they need help at multiple positions. They had success on defense in 2023, but a lot of that came because of turnover luck. The Broncos can't rely on that good fortune all the time and need more help on that side of the ball.

Furthermore, with some personnel turnover likely to happen on offense within the next year or two, a quarterback won't be enough to turn the Broncos' fortunes around alone. Thus, they need more help on offense.

As for QBs who have excelled in the NFL, the majority of them went to teams that either had a lot of pieces in place or had accumulated draft capital over the years to get players who could be part of the long-term. This applies to the Kansas City Chiefs with Mahomes, the Buffalo Bills with Allen, the Houston Texans with Stroud, the Baltimore Ravens with Jackson, and the Philadelphia Eagles with Hurts. 

The Detroit Lions also built up a roster by accumulating draft capital — to the point they could have success with Goff — who isn't an elite QB. And the Miami Dolphins accumulated draft capital as well, allowing them to build a good roster around Tagovailoa.

Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Chargers and Jacksonville Jaguars have had issues in building their teams despite having quality QBs. The end result is they've missed the playoffs more often than not with those QBs.

And then there are the QBs who were drafted early and didn't work out for their teams: Mitch Trubisky, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, and Justin Fields. Taking a QB early in the first round does not guarantee the QB will work out, particularly if you aren't doing a good job of building the team overall.

If the Broncos had more draft capital available, a trade-up might make sense. But they don't. Therefore, the argument is that it's better for the Broncos to trade down, acquire more capital, and get more players on the roster.

The Broncos should take a QB at some point, but even if the odds don't favor the player working out, it'd be better to take one late and get a roster in place than to go "all in" for a QB now and not have the draft capital to build the team around him.

If the Broncos want to get back to relevancy, they can't go for a quick fix. They need to take the approach that teams like the Chiefs, Texans and Bills have done: Get the pieces into place, get the draft capital to work with, then when the time is right, pull the trigger and go get the QB in the draft.

Bottom Line

It really comes down to whether the Broncos see a QB in this class that they love. If so, do they believe a team drafting ahead of them will take him? Or do they believe other teams will pass on him?

If the Broncos are confident in a QB prospect and can make a strong offer to convince a team to make the trade, they should move up the board and get their guy.

But if the guy they love is one that another team drafting ahead of them also loves, there isn't much they can do. For example: If the Broncos identify Williams as the QB they love but the Chicago Bears want him, too, they will decline all offers for the No. 1 overall pick and take the USC star.

And if the Broncos aren't confident in this year's class as a whole, then the right thing to do is trade down if at all possible. Take the approach other teams have taken by accumulating draft capital and building the roster, then down the road, they'll be in a better position to risk draft capital to move up for a QB — that is, if they have to move up the draft board.

It's true that Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci aren't going to excite anyone about the QB position. But the Broncos have tried quick fixes before — namely, the Russell Wilson trade — and that approach backfired. Therefore, dealing with pain for 2024, while not fun, may be a better approach if it gets them in a better position for 2025 and beyond, including a better shot at a top QB.

As for what the Broncos will actually do, only Payton and Paton know for sure. We'll see what they do come April 25.

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