Broncos vs. Bucs Week 3 Odds: Denver Opens as Home Underdogs | What it Means
This season has not come close to how most fans hoped the Denver Broncos would start out. While the Broncos are 0-2 in the standings, they are 2-0 in one major category: covering the spread.
This past week, the Broncos were 7.5-point underdogs at Pittsburgh and were able to get back into the game and make it another close loss. In fact, the Broncos are 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games. I know moral victories count for extraordinarily little in the NFL, but the Broncos have done an exceptionally good job of keeping games close under head coach Vic Fangio.
The Broncos come into Week 3 once again huge underdogs as Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers come to Denver. The Bucs were able to right the ship after a bad loss in Week 1 with a victory over the Carolina Panthers 31-17.
Tampa Bay was able to get the running game going with Leonard Fournette going over 100 yards rushing and the defense forcing four turnovers. It is worth noting, though, the Bucs got a late-game touchdown on a long run to really make the score look more lopsided than the game portrayed.
One area to keep an eye on before making your bets this week is that of the injury updates for both teams. They're trending in different directions currently. Most fans are acutely aware of the rash of injuries the Broncos have suffered with QB Drew Lock, DL Dre’Mont Jones, WR Courtland Sutton, DL DeMarcus Walker, RB Philip Lindsay, and CB A.J. Bouye all missing time for at least the next couple of weeks.
The Bucs got some great news with their two Pro Bowl receivers being able to practice on Wednesday in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. If both wideouts are good to go, the Broncos’ secondary is going to have its hands full this week.
With all of that in mind, let’s take a look at the numbers according to Colorado-based SportsBetting.com.
ATS Betting Lines: Tampa Bay -6
Over/Under: 43.5
Moneyline: Bucs -271/Broncos +225
Breaking it Down
ATS: Brady has traditionally struggled when playing in Denver and melding with what head coach Bruce Arians likes to do on offense hasn't gone smoothly. Those issues could play well into the hands of the Broncos in catching the Bucs early in the season as they work out the issues of figuring out their offense with Brady.
Tampa Bay still put up 31 points this past week even while Brady had his struggles. The Broncos, as stated earlier, have done well at covering the spread, though. In their last five games at home, Denver is 4-1 against the spread.
The Broncos have shown under Fangio they are a 'bend but don't break' type of defense. This means usually a little lower scoring game and a close final score. On the flip side of things, the Bucs are 2-2-1 against the spread in their last five games. The stats suggest taking the Broncos if betting the spread.
Losing Lock affected the spread. Here's what SportsBetting.com said.
"If Lock is in the lineup, the Broncos are still dogs, but you're probably looking at +4.5 or +5," Scott Cooley, an odds consultant for SportsBetting.com, said. "He's certainly not going to move the needle in a major way in terms of the odds, but the reps and familiarity with first-team personnel make him more valuable than the backup, Driskel."
Over/Under: Personally, this is the one that might be worth paying attention to in this upcoming game. Tampa Bay has gone over in 14 of their last 16 games. The Bucs can put up points in a hurry even with some struggles here early in the season.
On the road, the Bucs have been just as deadly, going over in 7-of-8 previous games. The Broncos have also started trending towards hitting the over lately, doing so in 6-of-9 previous games played on a Sunday. Lock and Sutton might be missing but the young weapons showed well in their absence last week.
The Broncos are still an offense that could put up decent stats with big plays built into the game plan. Right now, at SportsBetting.com, the Broncos/Bucs game is tied for the lowest over/under entering this upcoming week with Denver's team point total over-under at 19.5. If you're going to bet the over, I would jump on this number early. The news of Evans and Godwin being healthy could cause that number to trend upwards as the week progresses.
Moneyline: If there is one that I would stay away from this week, it's the moneyline bet. The Broncos are not being given much of a chance with the Bucs getting a -271 moneyline. This means if you bet $100 you will make back just $136 total including your original bet.
I'm not sure that kind of bet is worth putting your money towards. On the flip side, the Broncos are at +225 meaning your $100 bet could net you $325. I think the Broncos can keep it close this upcoming week, but to bet on them to win straight up is asking a lot for a team missing so many key players. A big risk means big reward so if you are looking to make some big money and believe in the Broncos, this bet is for you.
Bottom Line
How much can one trust Jeff Driskel to go and outperform Brady? This is why betting on the Broncos is such a tough sell. I would lean towards betting the spread if I were partaking in these odds.
I expect the Broncos offense to still put up some points and make this an interesting game. Both teams have some major playmakers that can score in a hurry, leading me to believe there will be a few big plays that drive up the score in the end.
If you are looking to bet, I would lock in the over/under early in the week and the spread late in the week. Both will trend towards the Bucs in the belief Tampa Bay will walk away with an easy victory this week.
Follow Carl on Twitter @CarlDumlerMHH and @MileHighHuddle.
