The Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers both enter this coming Sunday with a record of 2-4. Most of the time, when you have teams with an equal record, the home team gets the benefit of the doubt.
However, the betting world sees two teams going in opposite directions, giving the Chargers a -3 spread according to SportsBetting.com.
The biggest reason the Chargers are favored over the Broncos likely comes down to the quarterback situation. Rookie first-rounder Justin Herbert is getting a lot of hype, just like Drew Lock did last year, after a couple of games.
Meanwhile, Lock has now strung together two not-so-great performances in a row. For the Broncos, this game has a lot more on the line than just a win or loss.
Lock has just 10 games to prove he is the future at the quarterback position and if the Broncos lose this one, it would not surprise me to see them become 'sellers' before the trade deadline on November 3.
In the end, this will be one of the tougher games to place bets on for Week 8 of the NFL. Any time young quarterbacks are involved, the variance from one week to the next can be quite jarring.
Both the Broncos and Chargers have struggled with turnovers, making it all the more difficult to forecast how this game could shake out. The odds for Broncos-Chargers are as follows, at the writing of this article.
ATS: -3 Chargers
Moneyline: -175 Chargers/+156 Broncos
Breaking it Down
ATS: The Chargers have been one of the best teams in the league against the spread. They are 4-1-1 through the first six games of the season with the Broncos right behind them at 4-2.
The Chargers have kept every single loss this season as a one-score margin. I would expect that this should be a close contest with both teams leaning on their defense to slow down a young quarterback. It would not surprise me if this game came down to a field goal at the end to decide the winner.
I'm not completely shocked that the Chargers are favorites in this one. They're coming off their biggest win of the season with the offense putting up 39 points, whereas, obviously, the Broncos are coming off their worst loss against the Kansas City Chiefs.
The money on this game is leaning towards the Chargers up to this point and that will continue. If you're wanting to bet on the Chargers, it might be smart to do it now while the spread is only three points.
Over/Under: This is where things get exceedingly difficult to figure out. The Chargers have hit the over in six of their last seven road games. The Broncos have hit the under in 13 of their last 18 home games.
Both teams have a strong defense, but again, both offenses struggle with turnovers, leading to some easy scores for opponents. I lean a bit towards the over in this one. The Broncos are starting to get healthier on offense and I expect a much better game plan going into this week.
On the flip-side, the Chargers have some strong weapons in both the running and passing game which can put up points in a hurry. The weather shouldn’t be a big issue. As of right now, they're reporting sunny and warm for this coming Sunday.
Moneyline: If you're a big believer in the Broncos having a bounce-back game, this is where it might be very beneficial to bet on the home team. The Broncos are sitting at +156, meaning that if you bet $100 on the Broncos and they win, you'd walk away with an extra $156 in your pocket.
On the flip-side, the Chargers are sitting at -175 meaning that same $100 bet only brings back $57.14 if they end up victorious. This is why if I'm betting on the Chargers, I'd lean towards betting on the spread as all you are doing is giving up three points for almost an extra $40 in return for them winning.
The betting for this game really does come down to who you think will win in the end. The odds show this as a toss-up game for both sides. Once you figure out who you're betting on, it comes down to what type of bet to make and I'm one that leans a little more on taking the risk to get the reward. But every bettor must decide that for themselves.
The Over/Under really depends on whether you think Lock and the Broncos' offense can turn the ship around after an ugly performance. The Chargers should put up some decent points as the offense has been cooking lately averaging 26.6 points with Herbert at the helm.
If you think the Broncos will hit that 20-point mark this week, bet the over and get excited to maybe see some fireworks from two young and promising quarterbacks.