Pinpointing Broncos' 3 Biggest Strengths, 3 Biggest Weaknesses Heading Into Chiefs Week
By starting off the first quarter of the season 0-4, the Denver Broncos undoubtedly dug themselves a deep hole. However, on the heels of two straight victories, the Broncos sit at 2-4 and are beginning to build up the type of momentum we’ve seen NFL teams use to turn a season around in years past.
These last two games have been a massive step in the right direction, but due to the poor start to this season, the Broncos have to play near-perfect football in order to give themselves even a puncher’s chance at the postseason.
There were so many new, moving pieces to the 2019 Broncos, from coaching to scheme to personnel. It made it difficult to project ahead and predict with any sort of accuracy how this team would take shape.
Six weeks into the year, we’re still searching for answers in many instances but we also know a heck of a lot more about the Broncos than we did on September 8, the day before the season kicked of.
Next up on the schedule are the 4-2 Kansas City Chiefs, whom the Broncos have lost seven straight games to. The Chiefs themselves are on a streak, though it’s an ignominious one, as losers of two straight games.
It will be interesting to see which team the Law of Averages favors in this game. Will the Football Fates favor the Broncos as the streak-breakers? Or will the Chiefs end their two-game slide? Only time will, but no question, Week 7 will be a watershed game for Denver.
A win could very well serve as the type of football nourishment this team needs to energize them on a bonafide stretch run. A loss, and I fear we’ll see the ‘here we go again’ look in the eyes of this team.
Meanwhile, with six games under their belt, what exactly have we learned about the Broncos? Or, more specifically, what strengths and what weaknesses have emerged as trends?
Answering those questions could tell us which direction this suddenly more-promising season is headed with the Chiefs next up on the docket.
Strengths
Defensive Scheme: It took some time, but the Broncos are finally firing on all cylinders in Vic Fangio’s defensive scheme. It’s a more complex, zone-based system that asks the defensive backs to do things from a coverage perspective very different than what the man-based concepts the Broncos deployed from 2015-18 did.
Fangio’s system also asks the front seven to do things somewhat atypical of what the collective likes of Wade Phillips, Vance Joseph and Joe Woods did. We probably should have recognized more starkly that it would take time for the holdovers to acclimate to Fangio’s philosophies, but none could have predicted it would take the better part of the entire first quarter of the season to come together.
But come together it has, and it started in Week 4 vs. Jacksonville, modestly-speaking. The Broncos were able to break their three-game zero sacks/zero takeaways streak by finally getting home to the QB. But it was the next week in L.A. when the Broncos really blew the doors down from a takeaways perspective and in Week 6 vs. Tennessee, the proverbial floodgates opened up.
This collection of veteran holdovers and first-year additions simply needed time on task. The combined track record of Vic Fangio and Ed Donatell assured us that it would only be a matter of time, though those first four games did create some doubts. That time has come. And the next strength we’ll talk about is a big reason why.
Front Seven: It took some tinkering with personnel, but eventually the Broncos found the right combination of players to make Fangio’s scheme lift off. Namely, Shelby Harris had been miscast as a nose tackle, and the rotation of inside linebackers next to Todd Davis had been woefully impotent.
In Week 5, Fangio made the surprising decision to bench Adam Gotsis, which allowed two things to happen; 1.) Harris could kick out to his more natural position at defensive end and 2.) Mike Purcell could be plugged in to take over at nose tackle.
That was only half the solution to this defensive puzzle, though. The other personnel fix came in the form of Alexander Johnson getting to start opposite of Davis. It took the injury bug jumping up and biting Josey Jewell’s hamstring to force the issue but eventually the Broncos got wise to the lackluster performance of Corey Nelson and played Johnson instead. The ensuing results have been outstanding.
The Broncos relinquished just 35 and 39 yards rushing, respectively, in the two games with Purcell and Johnson in the starting lineup. The immovable Purcell proved to be the missing piece of the puzzle on the defensive line, which has allowed the likes of not only Shelby Harris to play to his strengths, but also Von Miller, Derek Wolfe and band-aid starter Malik Reed.
It’s led to seven sacks, which in turn, led to six takeaways over the last two games. Fangio’s defense has suddenly morphed into the havoc-wreaking unit we’ve seen at his past NFL stops.
Inexplicably, even without Bradley Chubb, this Broncos front seven has gone from being highly questionable and maligned to extremely stingy and productive.
Rushing Attack: One of the few offensive statistical categories where the Broncos are even ranked in the top-15, the rushing attack has been the only staple the team can hang its hat on. Averaging 116 yards per game on the ground, Denver’s ground attack has had to serve as the tip of the spear.
Phillip Lindsay has 397 rushing yards on 84 carries (4.7 avg), while Royce Freeman has 284 yards on 66 totes (4.3 avg). The second-year duo has been the offense’s only saving grace.
What’s really surprised me has been the receiving impact of both Lindsay and Freeman out of the backfield. Outside of Courtland Sutton, the Broncos’ RB duo have been the only other semi-consistent force in the passing attack, combining for 40 receptions and 292 yards.
Much of the credit for the Broncos’ production on the ground has to go to the offensive line, which has been mostly maligned by fans. This starting five has been shaky at times in pass protection but its strength has been as road-graders, opening up holes for Lindsay and Freeman on the ground.
Weaknesses
QB play: One of the reasons Freeman and Lindsay rank third and fourth, respectively, on the team in receiving is because of the triggerman’s propensity for the check-down. Joe Flacco’s play through six games has been maddeningly...average.
In many categories, Flacco has been well below league average. The Broncos offense has limped by with Flacco at the helm. If Flacco is an upgrade over his predecessor Case Keenum, it’s only by a thin margin.
Flacco is on pace to throw for a little over 3,800 yards, with 18 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. For those keeping score, those numbers would almost identically match Keenum’s production as a 16-game starter in Denver last year (3,890 yds, 18TD/15INT).
Perhaps the box score stats don’t tell the whole story with Flacco. What do the advanced analytics think of the Broncos’ new starting QB through six games?
Flacco’s 69.9 cumulative grade ranks him as QB20 in the NFL per Pro Football Focus. What we've learned is, as we saw in Week 6, when the defense and special teams are playing nearly perfect, the Broncos can win with Flacco. Or any other average-to-below-average QB. But when things don't go swimmingly in the other two phases of football, look out.
Another woeful marker that points to Flacco’s lackluster play is the Broncos’ third-down efficiency. On the season, Denver has converted 33.3% of their third-down tries, good for 25th in the NFL. In the last two games, the Broncos have gone 5-of-25 on third down.
The Broncos are also ranked 25th in red-zone efficiency, another stat closely tied to QB play. Instead of being the strength the Broncos’ brass expected Flacco to be for this team, he has been a weakness — especially in comparison to the other QBs across the NFL. An inconvenient truth.
Cornerback Depth: There are pros and cons to this one, because even though the Broncos are on their fourth starting cornerback opposite of Chris Harris, Jr. already, the team has weathered the storm created by the injury bug about as well as could be hoped. Bryce Callahan’s mysterious foot injury vaulted Isaac Yiadom into the starting lineup, but that only lasted until Week 4 when Yiadom was supplanted by De’Vante Bausby.
Things seemed on the verge of stabilizing when Bausby went down with a scary neck injury and Davontae Harris was cast into starting action. Harris has been up and down but he’s held up admirably considering all the circumstances.
Adding insult to injury, Duke Dawson has been banged up with a foot injury, missing Week 6’s tilt vs. Tennessee. Again, the Broncos have rolled with the punches but this is a unit to which the team can’t afford to suffer any additional losses.
If the Broncos can get Callahan back at any point while this season is still competitive, it’ll be a massive boon. However, I can’t discount the cornerbacks completely because their coverage has been a big reason why the Broncos’ pass rush has been able to get home of late.
The depth is just razor-thin.
Offensive Tackle Play: Garett Bolles got off to a horrific start to this season, racking up five holding penalties (four accepted) in Week 2 alone and relinquishing multiple sacks. He has since steadied out and while the penalties have been curtailed (keep your fingers crossed), he has allowed the occasional rusher to get home to Joe Flacco, the most impactful of which was a strip-sack in Week 5.
On the other side, the Broncos have suffered tremendously at right tackle in the wake of the Ja’Wuan James injury. James lasted 10 plays before going down with a knee injury in Week 1 and Elijah Wilkinson was the man tapped to stop the gap.
Wilkinson can be a mauler in the ground game but as a pass protector, he’s been a straight-up liability. However, James is expected to return to the starting lineup this week vs. the Chiefs.
His return, combined with Bolles’ modestly improved play, should provide better edge protection to Joe Flacco. Here’s to hoping, anyway.
Follow Chad on Twitter @ChadNJensen and @MileHighHuddle.
