Analytics Reveal the Hit-Rate for Each of Broncos' 4 Need Positions in Round 1
When teams trade during the NFL draft, it adds intrigue and excitement for fans. If done right, teams can truly prosper as a result.
Examining the risk-reward of draft-day trades, the old draft trade value chart from the 1990s had its heyday, but it is outdated. We have so much data at our fingertips to add a higher level of understanding to the draft, especially the value in trading of draft picks that go far beyond assigning a number value in an Excel worksheet.
Love it or hate it, analytics are a tool that will help NFL teams get better at the draft. The Denver Broncos can’t afford to miss in the first round this season. Denver has stacked a few good draft classes together and it needs another similar haul this season to get back to the winning ways its fans had become accustomed to.
Let’s explore some draft analytics that can lend insight into the value the Broncos could find in draft-day trades.
This article builds upon my last, which discussed how difficult it really is to hit on a drafted player. I'd recommend reading it (here). From that analysis, there were many requests to better understand the draft, especially the first round, at a more granular level.
Specifically, what was the percentage of hits in the top-10 versus later picks and by position? To refresh your memory, I previously analyzed every draft pick and season the players in question participated in from 2010-18.
To measure the impact a player has, I set a very low bar: the percentage of seasons he was the primary starter of all his seasons in the NFL. That percentage was compared to the mean of each round.
Without further adieu, here is the analysis.
Round 1 Hit Rate
The percent of ‘hits’ by round are as follows
- Round 1: 55%
- Round 2: 51%
- Round 3: 38%
- Round 4: 29%
- Round 5: 29%
- Round 6: 19%
- Round 7: 14%
- Total draft: 32%
Now, let's break it down even further.
Top-10 Hit Rate
With the first 10 selections in the draft, the percentage of hits on players is not significantly better than the entire round, but those first few selections do give a team the best chance.
- Top-10: 66%
- Picks 11-20: 60%
- Picks 21-32: 43%
- Round 2 (top half): 48%
- Round 2 (bottom half): 46%
Playoff teams are at a greater disadvantage than those teams that did not make the playoffs. Round 2 has a slightly higher selection rate than the end of Round 1.
It's interesting that quarterbacks drafted late in Round 1 drag the overall percentage down. It may be that teams are reaching for that all-important position and fail more often. Quarterbacks drafted in Round 2 (although a small sample size) have a better hit rate than those in the last part of Round 1.
At face value, it would behoove a team to stay in the first 20 picks instead of trading back. However, there is the number of selections a team gets in return for a trade back to consider (as the article that was the genesis of this analysis stated) and the position a team is interested in selecting.
This is where the analysis gets interesting.
The Broncos have a few needs to address. Here are four in particular: quarterback, cornerback, offensive tackle, and off-ball linebacker.
Would it be better for the Broncos to select one of these positions at pick No. 9 or trade back to get a haul of picks and a player who will be as likely to be a hit later than the top-10?
Quarterback
The quarterback is one of the hardest positions to get right in the draft. Furthermore, an elite QB can change the entire course of an organization.
This analysis did not examine whether the QBs in question were elite, just whether they capable starters. Even with the bar set low, the analytics reveal it's best to get one early.
Only 63% selected in the top-10 were hits. If the Broncos want a QB, they should not trade back.
Only 33% of QBs taken from picks 21-32 are 'hits'. That is a massive drop-off. The Broncos had better get a massive draft haul and look to other positions if they choose to go that route.
Cornerback
Cornerback is no longer a huge need thanks to GM George Paton's free-agent acquisitions, but it is for future seasons. Remember, Bryce Callahan and Kyle Fuller are only signed through 2021.
The cornerback is an interesting position in this analysis. Selecting a corner in the top-10 or in picks 11-20 makes it less likely to hit compared to the average, which is 56% and 54%, respectively. What does that mean? A different position group would be better options based on where Denver currently sits in the draft.
Moving back to selections 21-32, it drops to a 43-percent hit-rate, right at average. Finally, in the top half of Roun 2, the hit rate is 31% and the bottom half of Round 2 it is 43%.
If drafting a cornerback is the target, the Broncos should not trade back too far in Round 1. The other option would be to trade back, take a different position and target a cornerback in the latter part of Round 2. Which is very near the average for that part of the draft.
Offensive Tackle
Offensive tackle isn’t a huge need on paper, but Ja’Wuan James has been unreliable, to put it bluntly. The good news for the Broncos is trading back to stockpile more picks would be the smart move if an offensive tackle is the target.
In the top-10, the offensive tackle hit rate is very near the average for that area of the draft at 64%. Moving back to selections 11-20, it jumps dramatically to 73%, which is the best rate of any of the five positions. Moving back to late Round 1 and in Round 2, the hit rate is greater than the average.
Off-Ball Linebacker
Off-ball linebacker has been a need for the Broncos for some time. There is just something nostalgic about that position. It's one of those positions in the history of the game that is revered.
From all-timers like Dick Butkus to Randy Gradishar to Mike Singletary. However, this is no longer the same game as it was in the past. Off-ball linebackers can now be found with relative success throughout Round 1 and Round 2.
Selections 11-20 have the highest success rate for finding a linebacker at 71%, which is better than the top-10 at 67%. Late in Round 1 offers a 57% hit rate, early Round 2 is 58%, and late Round 2is 50%.
Each is better than average and if the Broncos want to trade back, they could get that haul of picks and have a good chance to find a capable linebacker if they so desire.
Using analytics to fine-tune the draft process, especially in trade scenarios would be an advantage. The Broncos could pick and choose what to do depending on positions available and who they want to draft.
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