Broncos Separate to Become Odds-On Favorite to Land QB Deshaun Watson
The position of the Houston Texans hasn't changed. New GM Nick Caserio is not interested in trading disgruntled quarterback Deshaun Watson.
Watson, who's a very, very smart player, used what leverage he could by threatening to hold out of the 2021 season if the Texans don't acquiesce to a trade. Caserio could be intent on cutting his GM teeth in a stand-off with the three-time Pro Bowler, or, he could simply be waiting for that offer that he can't refuse.
Maybe the Denver Broncos will be that team to blow Caserio's hair back. New GM George Paton has been a man of his word and involved in "every deal" on the QB market this offseason.
With the latest QB domino falling in the form of Carson Wentz getting traded to Indianapolis, the Broncos' options for a day-one upgrade over incumbent starter Drew Lock have dwindled. The good news?
The current betting odds favor the Broncos as the leaders in the clubhouse to win the Watson sweepstakes, according to FanDuel.
Two things have been made clear about the Denver Broncos this offseason: They're looking to move on from Drew Lock, and they're interested in a Deshaun Watson trade. With the Houston Texans' quarterback available, Denver could make a huge move to land their next franchise star.
This represents huge movement for Denver, who was outside the top five in the odds for Watson's next team a little under two weeks ago. However, there's increasing noise linking the QB with the Broncos, so it's not too surprising Denver has worked its way up.
The player futures odds on FanDuel Sportsbook (only available in Colorado) continue to support a Watson-to-Denver trade. Their odds surged to +300 only a couple of days ago, and they're on the move again. The Broncos are now the favorites to land Watson at +150.
Meanwhile, long-time Houston beat writer John McClain rebutted the notion of Denver being the odds-on favorites to land Watson.
“I'll guarantee you the Denver Broncos will not get Deshaun Watson from Texans,” McClain said earlier this week during an appearance on KOARadio in Denver.
Time will tell. McClain views the New York Jets, and that team's nest egg of multiple first-rounders, as the true leader to land Watson.
Meanwhile, Lock is hearing all the buzz and seeing his new GM overtly pursue literally every available veteran QB on the market.
The word on the street is that the third-year signal-caller is striving to block out the noise, keeping his head down and nose to the grindstone at Broncos HQ. It would be a major upset to see a tectonic QB trade swing Denver's way this offseason.
The most likely scenario, considering that head coach Vic Fangio is in a 'win or else' season, is that Paton ends up having to settle for a free-agent journeyman like an Andy Dalton, Jacoby Brissett, or Ryan Fitzpatrick, and runs it back with Lock for one more year.
As alluring as a QB might be in April's NFL draft, a rookie is not going to save Fangio, or the Broncos, from whatever fate awaits them in 2021. If there is no Watson to be had, or (an even less-likely) Russell Wilson, there is the distinct likelihood that Paton and Fangio would view Lock as the QB to give the Broncos the best chance to win in 2021.
After all, this would be Lock's second year in offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur's scheme, and his 18 NFL starts have provided him a more than solid sample-size of exposure to the league and its best defenses. If Denver loses out on the sensational QB trades this spring, don't be surprised to see Paton run it back with Lock.
And when/if that happens, don't be surprised to see Lock show marked improvement and win some ball games for the on-the-hot-seat Fangio and Shurmur.
Follow Chad on Twitter @ChadNJensen.
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