Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Revealing the Likelihood of Broncos Re-Signing Each of Their 18 RFAs & UFAs
The Denver Broncos have 18 players who will be either unrestricted or restricted free agents and chances are, the majority won't be back.
The Broncos are likely looking at a youth movement in the organization and a number of veterans will be allowed to move on. There will also be a few younger players who may want an opportunity to start and won't find that with the Broncos.
The Broncos are expected to have $62M in cap space before any cuts are made, but that cap space doesn't mean everyone can be brought back. There will be instances in which the Broncos will want to upgrade certain positions and instances in which the player wants to move on, whether it's for a starting job or more money than the team wants to pay.
But who is most likely to come back and who is most likely to move on? Let's examine the pending unrestricted and restricted free agents, in terms of the likelihood they will be retained.
Definitely: I would expect the Broncos will keep the player.
Likely: I believe the Broncos want to keep the player, but some circumstances may change that.
50-50: Things could go either way, mostly depending on the market for the player, and if a player returns, it may not happen right away.
Not Likely: While the player may want to stay or the player could return if the market isn't good for his services, the odds suggest the player will move on.
No Chance: The player isn't going to be back because the Broncos can find better options.
Definitely
Justin Simmons, S: GM John Elway has made it no secret that he wants Simmons to remain with the Broncos. The franchise tag will be utilized unless Simmons and the Broncos agree to an extension before free agency starts. I will say that, while an extension may not happen quickly, it will happen. Elway has never simply tagged a player and not made a serious effort to get a deal done.
Mike Purcell, NT: The restricted free agent will most likely get a right-of-first-refusal tender because nose tackles typically don't get massive contracts. However, there's a chance the Broncos could use a second-round tender or simply extend him on a short-term deal. But I don't think there's any question Purcell will stick around because Vic Fangio likes him and he's a good fit for the scheme.
Elijah Wilkinson, OL: Though Wilkinson struggled at right tackle, giving him the right-of-first-refusal RFA tender at least gives the Broncos somebody with experience to be the swing tackle. I don't think there's any danger of teams signing Wilkinson to an offer sheet.
De'Vante Bausby, CB: His season ended prematurely because of a neck injury. But he was effective when he entered the starting lineup, so I believe the Broncos wlll give him the right-of-first-refusal RFA tender. I don't think teams will go out of their way to sign him to an offer sheet, so that tender should be safe. (With all RFAs, bear in mind that if a player isn't tendered, he doesn't factor into the compensatory pick formula.)
Likely
Derek Wolfe, DL: I think the Broncos want to keep Wolfe, but Wolfe has indicated he won't just take any old contract that the Broncos give him. I'm sure he will want to get a higher APY salary than he got on his previous deal. Despite his injury history, he is worth keeping on, say, a three-year, $30M deal with incentives, in which the Broncos could get out of the deal after one year if need be. But if he looks for more than that, the Broncos are likely to look elsewhere.
Casey Kreiter, LS: You would think it wouldn't be difficult to get a long snapper signed to an extension. But considering how reliable Krieter has been, he might be looking for a contract that puts him among the higher-paid players at the position. Such contracts aren't that high, but the Broncos might not be willing to pay him that much, if they believe they can get similar production for a younger, lower-cost player.
50-50
Connor McGovern, C: I think everything with McGovern comes down to how much Mike Munchak believes he is a player worth building the offensive line around and how much McGovern wants in a contract. McGovern is a good but not great player. But as the market has demonstrated, good players tend to get paid at the levels of great players if those good players are the ones whose deals have most recently expired. Perhaps the market won't be what McGovern likes and he opts to stay, but it wouldn't surprise me if somebody is willing to give him the type of contract he likely wants.
Jeremiah Attaochu, OLB: The Broncos would certainly welcome Attaochu back if he is fine with being a depth player and taking depth player money. But if he's thinking about the chance to start, he'll want to test the market. I'm not convinced that he'll get a starting opportunity, but you never know if a team will bite. If Attaochu does return, it's likely happening only after he tests the market.
Brandon Allen, QB: A right-of-first-refusal RFA tender might make sense for Allen. But the question is whether the Broncos think they can find an upgrade at backup quarterback in free agency. So I'm not expecting the Broncos to tender Allen. I think it's more likely they treat him the same way they treated Kevin Hogan — let him hit the open market for the time being and, if they don't find a better option, bring Allen back on a one-year deal.
Joseph Jones, LB: The backup linebacker missed part of the season because of injuries. When he returned, he was a solid special teams player, but others were filling that role well, too. I don't think the Broncos give Jones an RFA tender, but if he doesn't sign elsewhere, there's a chance he could come back. With Jones, if he does return, I think it's more likely he would be brought back after the draft.
Cyrus Jones, CB: He is an unrestricted free agent, but the Broncos' decision to add him late in the season (albeit when others were injured) might indicate they think he's a good fit as a backup. However, I believe the Broncos will let him hit the market for the time being. As with Joe Jones, there's a chance he could return, but only after the draft when the Broncos have a better idea about where the roster stands.
Not Likely
Chris Harris, Jr., CB: I can imagine this won't be a popular decision, but Harris has made it no secret he's looking for a big contract. I don't blame him, because it will likely be his last chance at that. Also, he'll get a chance to play for a team that will utilize him more often in the slot, where he does his best work. I'd be surprised if another team doesn't sign him, but if nobody else does, then maybe he returns to the Broncos.
Shelby Harris, DL: Again, this won't be a popular decision. But Harris wants to get a big contract, one bigger than the Broncos are likely to offer him. If he doesn't get one, it's likely he could go the route of Shaquil Barrett and take a deal in which he bets on himself. Either way, I think he believes that his prospects will be better elsewhere.
Will Parks, DB: Without a doubt, Parks has been a great depth player and excels on special teams. But I'm certain he wants the chance to start and that's not going to happen with the Broncos. Expect Parks to test the market and sign with a team that will give him the chance to compete for a starting job.
Adam Gotsis, DL: He saw less playing time this season and doesn't appear to be a good scheme fit. There's an outside chance he comes back on a one-year deal if he doesn't find any offers to his liking. However, I would expect a few teams will give him a shot, even if it's not on a big contract.
Theo Riddick, RB: The change in offensive coordinators means it's not likely that Riddick sticks around. Perhaps he does come back if he finds no offers elsewhere, but I think the Broncos may be more likely to draft a running back who excels at pass-catching.
No Chance
Devontae Booker, RB: I'm not as down on Booker as other people, but he's been nothing more than solid depth. The Broncos should be able to find an upgrade through the draft.
Corey Nelson, LB: I was fine with signing him when the Broncos had lost so many linebackers to injury. But they now have several good options under contract as either starters or depth, and can always draft a player for depth, so there's no need to keep Nelson around.
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