Broncos Mock Offseason: Re-Signings, Free Agency & 7-Round Draft | Final Version
It's the offseason — that wonderful time of the football year where NFL teams are working to make their rosters better. Free agency looms next week, and not long after that, the 2020 NFL Draft.
With everything poised for lift-off across the league, I took one final stab at a full offseason mock. This mock is based on all the latest buzz I've picked up on players the Denver Broncos are likely to show interest in during free agency.
That doesn’t mean Denver will land each guy I list below, though, and in the mock, there were a few players I had to go away from for financial reasons. Something that hurts teams is they can’t always buy the best players out there, do to the nature of negotiations driving up the price.
As for the mock draft part of it, once again I used The Draft Network mock simulator to make the Broncos' picks and that of every other team. From there, picks and moves made by the Broncos were based on the latest I've heard about the Broncos' potential draft plans.
With free agency starting in just a few days, let’s get into my final offseason mock for 2020.
Homegrown Re-Signings
Tim Patrick, Trey Marshall, Diontae Spencer, Jake Rodgers: There are a few players that the Broncos could really look to bring back. Most of them, however, are not expensive and are mostly exclusive rights tender players. They're all cheap and at the very least can provide depth competition in the preseason.
Elijah Wilkinson & Mike Purcell: There are a few restricted free agents to tender as well. Wilkinson and Purcell both garner a second-round tender, which is projected to be right under $3.3 million. New D-line addition Joel Heath, who was claimed from the Houston Texans, also gets tendered, but at the original round tender for roughly $2.1M projected. Every other RFA, which includes QB Brandon Allen, is allowed to go.
De'Vante Bausby, CB: Denver said they won’t tender Bausby, but the team does want to get a deal done. After starting just two games before his season-ending injury, the Broncos didn’t deem him worth the $2.1M for the original round RFA tender, so a deal for $1M with incentives to reach $1.5M on a one-year deal could get it done.
Justin Simmons, S: The last homegrown free agent who gets a deal from the Broncos is Justin Simmons. Denver said it has no intention of letting him test the market, but it is unlikely an extension gets done before the deadline, so the franchise tag is used on Simmons to lock him in. Denver would then use the extended time, after free agency and the draft, to work on a new deal, which is exactly what GM John Elway has executed with each of the four previous players he's franchise-tagged.
Note: Joe Flacco is also a cut candidate, but that will probably happen later in the offseason due to medical reasons. A cut sometime in June for the Broncos to free up that money for late signings and draft picks is what the intention could be. Plus, if the league and NFLPA do agree to the new CBA, that would spread dead money over the next two years.
Outside Signings
Cory Littleton, LB: While in 2019, Littleton didn’t line up in multiple spots, he has that versatility. In 2018 and 2017, he showed that versatility, though 2017 was in a much more limited role. Littleton fits exactly what the Broncos want and need from their LB position. He can handle one-on-one coverage against TEs and RBs, while also being a good run defender. His range and speed sideline-to-sideline are also pluses.
Leonard Williams, DL: The Broncos need to bring help to their defensive line. Derek Wolfe is an option to be brought back, but it is all going to come down to cost. Wolfe was having a career year before he got hurt. Williams doesn’t have the same medical history, is younger, and word is the cost will be similar. Since entering the NFL, Williams hasn’t fully lived up to the hype he got as a top-5 draft pick. However, he has been a good source of interior pressure and picked up 22 sacks in his career so far. Williams is also a solid run defender. With his age and clean medical history, he could be a huge fit for Vic Fangio and this Broncos defense, and there are murmurs of interest from Denver.
Michael Pierce, DL: D.J. Reader is the popular name for the Broncos' nose tackle position, but his cost vs. play just doesn’t add up. That leads to a cheaper, slightly more viable option. Pierce didn’t quite play 50% of the snaps in Baltimore last year, which is why he's so cheap. He is a big body that can control the interior of the line against the run. Pierce also has some upside as a pass rusher so you don’t worry if he gets caught on the field in passing situations.
Prince Amukamara, CB: There is purported interest from the Broncos in Amukamara and I wouldn’t be surprised if the interest was mutual. With Denver bringing in A.J. Bouye, it seems more likely they go a slightly cheaper route for their No. 2 corner spot. With Bouye, Bryce Callahan, and Amukamara, Denver would have a good trio at corner, if Callahan can stay healthy. Having Bausby as the No. 4 corner is also a bonus with what he showed in limited time last year. Amukamara had a solid 2019, but was really good for Fangio in 2018 and hopefully going back to that scheme can boost his play back up.
Matt Moore, QB: In letting Allen go, the need for a backup quarterback is high. Denver steals a guy who has been with the division rival Chiefs to try and get what they can from him, while also bringing in a good mentoring QB. Moore has the experience in the Andy Reid system, which is similar to new Broncos' OC Pat Shurmur's, which would help him pick it up and also help Drew Lock pick it up.
Jordan Howard, RB: It's been reported that Denver is going after a 'starter type' running back in free agency. While that isn’t the best way to go, Howard makes sense in that event. He fits what he Broncos are looking for, and spent time with the Bears where Fangio was the defensive coordinator, but also in a similar system in Philly. Howard provides a tough between-the-tackles runner, but also a solid outside runner and receiver out of the backfield.
7-Round Mock Draft
Time for what most of you came for — the mock draft. As stated above, TDN simulator I used puts restraints on trades, and each trade is based on a trade in the last two years. Denver enters the draft with 11 selections, three of which are compensatory picks. Denver had 12 picks, but sent the fourth-rounder it got from San Francisco in the Emmanuel Sanders trade to Jacksonville for Bouye.
Round 1 Trade: The Broncos are sitting at pick 15, but there is one wide receiver, in particular, they're looking at. In this simulation, that receiver fell to pick 11 and with how Denver views him, I decided to make the move up. To get to 11, Denver sent pick 15 and the No. 77 overall selection (third round) to the New York Jets.
Precedent: This transaction used the precedent of the 2018 trade between Arizona and Oakland. Arizona sent pick 15, 79 (3rd), and 152 (5th) to get to pick 10. That move was for Josh Rosen. Moving up to one spot before, and sending a third-rounder that was two picks higher canceled out the need for the fifth-rounder.
Round 1, Pick 11: Henry Ruggs III, WR | Alabama
Denver gets a fast receiver, but he isn’t just fast as some have claimed. Ruggs can go up and make contested catches fairly well, and his routes, while they need work, are solid. The big comparison people like to throw around with him is John Ross, who was fast, but his routes were far worse than Ruggs' and he was very limited with his route tree. Ross was a player you wanted to get the ball to in space, and Ruggs isn’t.
Ruggs also has good hands with only three drops in the last two years while Ross had 14 in the last two years. What Ruggs brings most to the Broncos' offense doesn’t even come with getting him the ball. Ruggs has the speed to dictate coverage and open up Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant, and whatever other weapons the Broncos have. Because of the speed that Ruggs brings, the defense has to provide his cornerback, and it has to be a corner, with safety help over the top.
Ruggs is the ultimate spacing weapon in the draft, and spacing is what the Broncos' passing game revolves around. Plus with Lock's arm, the Broncos can be a lot more aggressive with shots downfield. For more on Ruggs, check out our Finding Broncos scouting report.
Round 2 Trade: Denver came on the clock with pick 46, and there were seven different players that could have been the way to go. For that reason, and to help clear up the board, a trade back seemed fortuitous. Denver moved down to pick 50 with Chicago, while getting a late fourth-round pick (140 overall). To help facilitate the trade, Denver sent a late seventh-round pick as well.
Precedent: In 2019, Cleveland sent picks 49 and 144 (5th) to Indianapolis for pick 46. So Denver is sending a seventh, while moving down one more spot, but getting a pick four spots higher than the 2019 trade used as a precedent. That seventh-round pick is No. 252 overall, which Denver was awarded as a compensatory pick.
Round 2, Pick 50: Justin Madubuike, DL | Texas A&M
Denver did go spend and bolster its defensive line in free agecy, but the team still needs some additional help. With how long defensive linemen can take to develop, adding another young piece for depth is a must. In losing Gotsis, Shelby Harris, and Wolfe in free agency, Madubuike helps counter them. Denver would have a great rotation on their defensive line, which is something Fangio likes to have on the unit.
Madubuike is very explosive off the snap and it makes him hard to block for interior offensive linemen. He can be a bit reckless with his pass rush, but that is where DL Coach Bill Kollar comes in. There is also some versatility with Madubuike to where he can stand up in a two-point stance on occasion. He has a good athletic profile that he relies on, and will need the finer technical areas improved.
Round 3, Pick 83: Matthew Peart, OT | UConn
After trading up to pick 11, the Broncos are left with only two third-round picks. There are some who think Peart can play guard at the NFL as well as tackle. For Denver, he is a developmental tackle that the team can try at guard or develop for if/when Ja’Wuan James gets hurt and misses time. I don’t personally see the ability to play inside, but getting a future starter who can take over next year, with the potential to play either side is good value for pick 77.
Round 3, Pick 95: Terrell Burgess, DB | Utah
Coach Fangio spoke about how defenses are going to more 6-DB looks in the NFL and Denver can use the added depth Burgess would bring. The need for Burgess increases with the unlikelihood that Will Parks will be brought back. Burgess can play any role in the secondary with his ability to play in the box, deep safety, in the slot, or even on the boundary occasionally. With this selection, Denver gets their No. 3 safety and the future starter post-Kareem Jackson, which, because of the cost, could come as soon as 2021.
Round 4, Pick 118: Akeem Davis-Gaither, LB | Appalachian State
While Denver did add Littleton, it can still use more athleticism and coverage ability at LB. Denver also has to boost their depth at LB, and special teams coverage units. Davis-Gaither helps do all of that. He also brings the versatility that Fangio could use on the defense with his ability to play all over the unit. That includes as a safety, or in the slot, and the more versatility Denver can add, the more confusing (for opposing quarterbacks) Fangio can make his defense.
Round 4, Pick 140: Devin Duvernay, WR | Texas
Due to the strength of the receiver class, some players are going to fall. Duvernay happened to fall some in the simulation. Denver is in prime position to stack speed on top of speed, and they need an infusion of it. Adding Duvernay just adds a lot more versatility to the Broncos' offense because of the stacking of speed. Ruggs can take the top off, with Duvernay operating underneath, or vice versa. Speed isn’t all that Duvernay brings, as he does a good job of making defenders miss in the open field. While he isn’t a big receiver, he does have good power.
Round 5, Pick 178: Brandon Mann, P | Texas A&M
Denver needs a new punter. I am not one for drafting specialists, but Denver has to re-weaponize its home-field advantage and punting is the way to do that. Mann has a very strong leg to boom punts, but he can also handle the short punting as well. Denver will have to improve its coverage unit as Mann has a tendency to out-punt the coverage.
Round 6, Pick 181: Tremayne Anchrum, OL | Clemson
Two things to note about this pick. One, Anchrum was a tackle at Clemson, but in the NFL he is going to be inside. The center spot is the best-projected spot for him. Two, I'm lower on Anchrum than most other draft analysts and part of that is with the projection to center.
It is nothing but a projection for Anchcrum to play center at the NFL. He is a little slow with his hands, which makes the projection somewhat concerning, not to mention the complete lack of experience inside. He does seem to have good smarts for the center position, though. What also hurts his value is his complete lack of versatility.
Round 7, Pick 238: Raymond Calais, RB | Louisiana
My colleague Nick Kendell is all about stacking speed on top of speed, and I can agree with it. Calais is a very fast RB with good hands out of the backfield. Denver has their tough between-the-tackles runner with Howard, and Phillip Lindsay can do that, as well as Royce Freeman. Calais brings a weapon to the backfield that, when added with Ruggs' speed, can really make defenses be slow.
Round 7, Pick 254: James Smith-Williams, Edge | N.C. State
Denver needs to add more competition for its edge depth. Smith-Williams is a very athletic edge, that still has some development to go. In previous years, Denver has done a great job finding pass-rushing gems late in the draft, or just after. Getting Smith-Williams to work with the Broncos staff, in the Fangio scheme, and learning from Von Miller could lead to another hit.
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