Broncos Must Avoid These Common NFL Mistakes When Building Around Drew Lock
The quarterback being the highest-paid position, on average, in the NFL isn't a new thing. It's only more recently that quarterback salaries have taken off, to the point that we are talking about Patrick Mahomes possibly hitting an average salary of $40 million per year.
It's hard to believe that, 10 years ago, $20M was the mark that those salaries approached. We can see that in the pattern of how quarterbacks who are shoo-ins for the Hall of Fame got paid years ago. Tom Brady hit $18M APY in the extension he signed in 2010, then Peyton Manning hit $19M APY a year later, then Drew Brees hit $20M APY a year after that.
Jump ahead to Aaron Rodgers, who got $23M APY when he signed an extension back in 2013. Others who signed that year or the following years compensated well, but didn't reach the level that Rodgers reached. Matt Ryan got $20.75M in 2013, Matthew Stafford got $17.6M in 2013, Joe Flacco got $20.1M in 2013, Andy Dalton got $16M in 2014, Colin Kaepernick got $19M in 2014, Cam Newton got $20.7M in 2015 and Russell Wilson got $21.9M in 2015. While we can debate who was really worth the contract, none of those deals re-set the QB market.
The two players who re-set the market came later. The first was Andrew Luck, who had clearly become an elite player. He got $24.5M in the extension he signed in 2016.
The next quarterback to re-set the market came in 2017. That quarterback is not somebody who would be considered elite; Derek Carr, who get $25M APY.
Since that time, the quarterback market has mostly gone like this: Whoever is up for an extension and looks like he might be a franchise QB, gets paid the most money.
We can see that in cases in which quarterbacks signed extensions with their teams at the time. Flacco got $22M APY in a short-term extension with the Ravens designed to clear cap space, but then there was Stafford getting $27M APY in a true extension (as in, he entered the final year of his deal), then Ryan getting $30M APY, then Rodgers getting $33M APY, then Wilson getting $35M APY.
And that doesn't include players who switched teams, such as Kirk Cousins getting $28M APY as a free agent or Jimmy Garoppolo getting $27.5M APY a few months after being traded. Nor does that include players whose rookie contracts were nearing the end, leading to Carson Wentz getting $32M APY and Jared Goff getting $33.5M APY. You also have the recent short-term extension for Ben Roethlisberger for $34M APY.
But if you want to understand where teams are really having problems with building their teams around their quarterbacks, it's not simply a matter of paying a lot for a quarterback. You have to consider the talent level the quarterback is really at, the players you really need to have around him and how you go about acquiring those players.
First, it will help to understand quarterback tiers and what they mean. For this exercise, I will place QBs based on where they would be as of 2020, not where they would be for the prime of their careers. That means certain QBs who are headed for the Hall of Fame won't all be elite, because they are past their prime.
Elite: These quarterbacks can put just about any team on his shoulders and get it into the playoffs, even if the team isn't well coached. They do need plenty of talent around them to get to a Super Bowl, but they are fine working with good talent starting at most positions, with a couple of elite players and a few average players. The ones I'd definitely call elite in 2020 are Mahomes and Wilson, though Lamar Jackson could enter this tier with another strong season. I could also see an argument for DeShaun Watson.
Good: These quarterbacks can get teams to the playoffs on a regular basis, but they need a good team built around them to get there, plus good coaching. In other words, you can't place a good QB on a bad team and turn it into an immediate, consistent playoff contender. You need a another elite player, perhaps two, and more good players to replace average players in the staring lineup. Brady, Rodgers, Brees and Roethlisberger were elite in their primes, but are now past their primes and are better described as "good" in 2020. I slot Jackson and Watson here, but another strong season for Jackson would mean I'd put him in the elite category. QBs who definitely fall into the "good" category for me are Ryan, Stafford, Wentz and Dak Prescott, and enough time has passed that I don't think I'd call them "elite."
Average: These quarterbacks can get to the playoffs, as long as you have good coaching and surround them with a lot of quality players. You need more elite players at other positions, plenty of good starters and no more than two or three players who are average starters, if you expect consistent playoff trips. Quite a few QBs fall into this category: Philip Rivers (now that he's past his prime), Carr, Mitchell Trubisky, Jameis Winston, Cousins (though maybe you can argue that he's good), Newton (though he was a good QB before injuries took their toll), Dalton, Garoppolo, Ryan Tannehill, Jacoby Brissett and Goff.
Jury's out: This one is simple enough — the QB has one or two seasons as a starter and is still developing. Drew Lock obviously falls here, along with Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones and Dwayne Haskins. I would slot Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and Josh Allen here, though you can see evidence as to which way those QBs are trending.
Stopgaps and Backups: Everyone else goes here, meaning average starters who are past their prime (Joe Flacco is a good example) or players who never panned out as a long-term starter and will have to take backup jobs throughout their careers — though in the right system, you can get a few starts out of players such as Ryan Fitzpatrick, Case Keenum and Nick Foles. I imagine some will argue that a few QBs I dubbed "average" are trending toward this category.
When we examine the first three tiers, we can get an idea about what these quarterbacks should be paid. If elite QBs get $40M APY, then good QBs should be slotted in below that, preferably around $35M, because you won't have that big of a gap between elite and good players.
But when it comes to average QBs, you don't want to be approaching those levels and should hold your position at around $25M. That's because you need more talent elsewhere, meaning you eventually need to commit more money to starters.
Where Teams are Going Wrong
Knowing what teams should expect to pay, then, where are teams going wrong when they build around the quarterbacks? Here's a list of issues teams have had as they've been building their teams and not maximizing their QB's talent level.
Overpaying for Average: This is a big one. Go back and look at the QBs who signed between 2013 and 2016 — while they were mostly compensated well, none of them got paid more than Rodgers, an elite QB in his prime, or Luck, an elite QB at the time. But along came Carr, who got paid like an elite QB when he was not. I suspect what got the Raiders anxious was they had returned to the playoffs after a long drought, but didn't have Carr in the playoffs because of an injury, lost in the wild card round and worried that they wouldn't make the playoffs again if they didn't do whatever it took to keep Carr.
But we've seen that it didn't lead to the Raiders getting multiple playoff trips. One reason is that they didn't keep building the team well around Carr and were lacking additional top players that they kept on long-term deals. Carr needed more help to keep the team a playoff contender and the Raiders didn't have enough cash to get that.
Teams such as the Vikings, Rams and Niners are in similar situations when it comes to cap space. They have QBs who need lots of help and they don't have the space — and perhaps not the cash — to get additional players to help out. While two of those teams made the playoffs this year, it will be difficult to be a consistent playoff contender without that additional help.
Overpaying for Other Players: When it comes to premium positions (pass rusher, offensive tackle, wide receiver, cornerback), you are definitely justified at paying elite money to elite players and have a case for paying elite money to a good player who will fit your system. But you don't want to do that with average players, because that makes it harder to build around your quarterback.
With non-premium positions, you can pay for elite players in some cases, but it's best to do that when you have a rookie QB on a cheap contract. But when you pay elite money to average or even good players at these positions, you are not doing your team any favors — especially if your QB isn't on a rookie contract any longer.
The Jaguars have been notorious for overpaying for players and all it's given them is one trip to the AFC title game and mediocrity otherwise. The Lions have done this a number of times and don't have enough playoff trips to show for it. And then there was Ryan Grigson, who blamed Luck's contract for his inability to build a team around the Colts, when he was overpaying for average talent.
Keeping Popular Players for too Long: A player you draft and develop, who proves worthy of a second contract, should get it in most cases, though you may have to make choices based on what you can do under the salary cap. However, unless that player is a quarterback, you don't want to rush to give that player a third contract.
The Falcons have this issue. There was no doubt they needed to give Julio Jones a second contract, because he proved worth it after they drafted him. However, with his deal expiring after 2019, the Falcons extended him again and re-set the market for receivers. While Jones has played well, it's crippled the Falcons' cap situation when they need help at other positions, but don't have the space to find a free agent who might help.
The Broncos will have to think about this, too, because Von Miller's contract expires after 2021. I think Miller should be allowed to finish his deal, unless his overall play (and not just simply looking at popular stats) drops dramatically and thus you have to move on after 2020.
But after 2021, there are multiple players who will be up for extensions, who would be better choices to keep around Drew Lock, meaning there may not be room for Miller, no matter how much fans love him.
Restructuring too Many Contracts: You can always restructure a contract, or maybe two, if you need wiggle room under the cap. The Broncos have done this twice under John Elway, with Miller and Flacco. Neither situation crippled the team's ability to find more help — Miller was still playing at a high level, while Flacco's restructure came when the Broncos were set have a lot of space in 2020, plus could always carry over cap space gained from the Flacco restructure.
Other teams, however, have done this too often, to their detriment. I've talked about the Saints, who restructured a lot of contracts just to add that one free agent they thought would put them back into the Super Bowl. When that didn't happen, they were in a bind in terms of how they could improve the team.
The Cowboys had this issue in the past, though they have since corrected that. But when they were doing it a lot, it wasn't helping them get to Super Bowls. Same with the Dolphins when they chased after Ndamukong Suh — they chased after him when they didn't have much cap space and had to structure the deal so they were stuck with him for an extended period, then had to restructure it, but never got multiple playoff trips out of it.
Trading Away too Much Draft Capital: When you have a top QB on a cheap rookie deal, it's tempting to get as many players as you can to take advantage. That leads to some teams trading away future draft capital to get more players to put around that QB.
However, if you do it too much, it can come back to haunt you when it comes time to extend the quarterback. The Seahawks had this problem, trading away a lot of picks but then lacking the capital to keep improving the team once Wilson was under his extension. More recently, the Chiefs have traded away a lot of draft capital and will have to pump the brakes there as Mahomes approaches the time for his extension.
And then there are teams such as the Rams, who paid Goff like a top QB, then traded draft capital for Jalen Ramsey, only to be faced with paying him a big contract soon while lacking the picks to get young players to build around Goff.
The Texans are similar, in that they gave up a lot of capital to get Laremy Tunsil, just as he's about to need an extension, at the same time Watson will need one, too, all while lacking picks to get more talent.
Using the Franchise Tag two Straight Years: I can understand tagging a QB for one year if you have doubts about him, to see if he's really worth an extension. However, if he proves he should get an extension, you really need to get one done. If you use the tag again, the player and his agent will just use the tag to negotiate a more favorable deal and that can harm your ability to improve the team elsewhere.
With other positions, it makes less sense to tag a player two straight years — and in a few cases, it makes no sense. The Steelers may have received a cap credit when Le'Veon Bell didn't sign his second tag, but it still counted against the cap in 2018 and limited the team's ability to add a low-cost free agent or two who could have provided immediate help for a playoff push.
The Rams also erred in giving Trumaine Johnson the tag for a second straight year. In his case, he signed his tag, but his presence didn't do much to improve the Rams. It just took up space and cash that could have been used elsewhere. Truth be told, the way the tag has been structured in recent years, using it more than once is a bad investment, because you can end up paying more than the player is really worth.
Poor Coaching and Poor Drafting: I put these two together because they are the obvious factors, though an elite QB can mask both. No doubt Luck's presence made people overlook the poor job Grigson did with drafting, and we can also cite Bill Polian's later years with the Colts while Peyton Manning was still there. The Saints also had drafts in which they didn't get enough in return, which played a part in the multiple years in which they missed the playoffs despite having Brees.
As for coaching, Mike McCarthy made questionable decisions that cost the Packers either playoff or Super Bowl trips, even with Rodgers under center. Time will tell if he will do better with the Cowboys, but he'll have to be better because Prescott isn't elite. Some have questioned whether or not Dan Quinn is the right coach for the Atlanta Falcons, and if he doesn't improve, that means more years in which the Falcons miss the playoffs, even when having Ryan under center.
• RELATED: How Broncos can Learn From Patriots' & Saints' Approach to Building Around a QB
What it Means for Broncos
The Broncos are fortunate to have Lock on a cheap contract, but they'll have to learn not only from their mistakes, but the mistakes other teams made, if they want to become a consistent playoff contender again.
There are some cases in which Elway has avoid pitfalls — he's good about not mortgaging too much draft capital and he hasn't restructured too many contracts just so he can squeeze another free agent into the fold.
However, he's had down years in the draft and several instances of paying average talent top money (Donald Stephenson and Menelik Watson come to mind) and elite money to merely good players (for example, take away Ja'Wuan James' injury history and start him all 16 games, and you have a good player in terms of talent getting elite money, thus it's still an overpay).
In the next installment, I'll talk about things the Broncos and Broncos fans should keep in mind as the team goes about building around Lock and how to truly maximize what they get out of him and the rest of the roster.
Follow Bob on Twitter @BobMorrisSports and @MileHighHuddle.
