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Broncos Only Check Three Boxes on Jeremiah's Championship Roster List Heading into Momentous 2020 Offseason
In the NFL, there are multiple ways to win a Super Bowl.
With models like the 2015 Denver Broncos that fielded a rather anemic offense but had an all-time defense, the 2017 Philadelphia Eagles who perhaps had the best offensive and defensive line in the NFL, the 2019 Kansas City Chiefs that had an underrated defense but an unmatched passing offense with track stars all across the field, anyone who tells you there is one single blueprint to hoisting the Lombardi Trophy is likely lacking nuance in their opinion.
I'm going to lay out Daniel Jeremiah's Championship Roster Checklist to determine how many boxes the Broncos check. First, though, a road map for the offseason and getting to the crux of what it really takes to contend in this league.
Best Way to Consistently Contend? A Great Head Coach-Quarterback Duo
It seems the best way to contend for a Super Bowl is to pair an excellent head coach with an elite quarterback. Look no further than Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in New England, perhaps the greatest quarterback and head coach in NFL History.
Do either earn the title of the ‘G.O.A.T’ without the other? Maybe, maybe not. The duo together, though, has one of the strongest claims in the history of the league.
In order for the Denver Broncos to supplant the Chiefs in the AFC West, the onus falls mostly on just how good HC Vic Fangio and QB Drew Lock can be going forward. While both have shown potential to in the least be competent in their roles, how great they can become is conjecture until more games are played.
Until the sample size is much larger, one can choose to be a pessimist and say the duo will likely be average or one can be an optimist and lean into the potential both have flashed in becoming one of the better head coach-quarterback tandems in the league.
A great head coach and quarterback duo do not guarantee a great team year-to-year, but it does give that team a higher floor than most other teams across the league. That high floor lends itself into giving a franchise more wiggle room in roster building to construct a team that is playoff-caliber. Once in the playoffs, all bets are off as anything can happen in a single-elimination football tournament.
With luck, in terms of how the ball bounces, injuries, and 50-50 calls going one way or the other, the playoffs end up being much like life: unpredictable. Due to the chaotic nature of the NFL playoffs, the best way to win the Super Bowl is to repeatedly knock on the door by earning a playoff berth. The best way to repeatedly make it out of the regular season is a great head coach and quarterback tandem.
Fangio-Lock Duo Needs a Greater Sample Size
Unfortunately for Broncos Country, whether Fangio and Lock can evolve into a formidable tag team and raise all boats, while providing franchise-level quarterback play, won’t be known for some time. Perhaps a year from now the answer will be more clear but until the games are played out and Fangio and Lock show how they'll grow and deliver in the respective roles, the Broncos’ overall ceiling and window of competitiveness is unknown.
However, the Broncos are trending in the right direction with a promising coaching staff, an exciting young offensive core, and some unique talented pieces on defense. Furthermore, a good chunk of cap space and five top-100 draft picks means the Broncos can go a multitude of directions to improve the roster and build a 2020 playoff contender even if Fangio and Lock remain ‘unknowns’ in regards to how great they can be at their jobs.
Broncos Have the Capital to Improve but Don't Expect Miracles
The Broncos should not panic and go ‘all-in’ to try to catch the Chiefs in one offseason. While it is true the Broncos have the means to really take a massive leap forward in the 2020 season ($62M in cap space, 12 draft picks), the Chiefs are the reigning Super Bowl Champions. With Patrick Mahomes throwing the ball to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce and being schemed up by Andy Reid, Kansas City will very likely stay on top of the Division in 2020.
Denver should not sit back and let that happen, given it has an interesting window of relevance opening while Lock is on his rookie contract, but being able to construct a roster with zero weaknesses given the holes at wide receiver, the offensive line, the interior defensive line, and cornerback make it unlikely Denver will knock off Kansas City in 2020. Anything is possible, but don’t bet your mortgage on it.
Focus on Building Blocks
Fangio and Lock are going to be given 2020 in the very least, and very likely longer to find out if the two can achieve greatness as a one-two punch at coach and quarterback. This means that the Broncos won’t be ‘shaking trees’ and ‘turning over stones’ to find a QB this offseason.
It's a good and relatively stable place to be in comparison to the post-Peyton Manning era of wandering the QB desert. Giving Fangio and Lock time to show just how good they can be, the Broncos should turn their focus on not just improving the 2020 roster to contend for their first playoff spot since 2015, but also look to build upon the team’s promising core.
What constitutes a player that can be a roster-building block? In my humble opinion, that would be one that has been a perennial Pro Bowl to All-Pro level player (even if they are likely on the downhill side of their career) or a young player that has shown flashes and warrants optimism. Some can be obvious slam dunk studs or some can be borderline, but great teams have a ‘core’ that makes up the main heavy lifters of their roster.
Daniel Jeremiah’s ‘Building a Contender' Checklist
The former NFL scout and current NFL Network draft analyst has a currently popularized theory of building a contender in the NFL that consists of a ‘checklist’.
How do the Broncos stack up currently on the ‘checklist’? Well, they certainly have one playmaker checked off in WR Courtland Sutton, two pass rushers crossed off in Bradley Chubb and Von Miller (although getting someone who can win inside would be very nice) and one back-seven playmaker in Justin Simmons, assuming he is retained. Not a horrible start.
The Broncos also roster some players who one can feasibly project as crossing off needs for the checklist. Lock will be the quarterback for 2020. Whether or not he can be the guy long-term remains to be seen, but he is the guy for now and has given fans reason for optimism going forward.
Furthermore, the Broncos have two additional offensive weapons in RB Philip Lindsay and TE Noah Fant. Lindsay is a good back but hasn’t shown to be a truly dynamic threat in the passing game to date. Meanwhile, Fant had an exceptional season for a rookie tight end, he still has work to do to cement himself as worthy of being a core building block player.
The Broncos' offensive line also does not possess any cemented long-term building-block players. Dalton Risner looked really good last season before suffering an ankle injury and he looks to be the best of the bunch for Denver. He feels like a safe bet.
On the complete opposite side of the spectrum, betting on tackles Garett Bolles or Ja’Wuan James would seem somewhat foolish at this point. However, both have shown ability to warrant some hope. Bolles played his best football down the stretch last season and James, when on the field, was an obvious difference-maker.
On defense, outside of the obvious studs in the aforementioned Miller, Chubb, and Simmons, the number of players who could fill the checklist is almost completely barren. Perhaps there is some hope for someone like De’Vante Bausby or Bryce Callahan, or even Dre’Mont Jones, but that just seems more like wishful thinking than facing reality at this point.
Outside of that trio, the only other player that can constitute as someone on the checklist as a pass rusher or back seven difference maker is LB Alexander Johnson, who played really well last season in his first year as an NFL starter.
Where to Target Building Blocks with Big Contracts or Early Draft Picks
Given the current construction of the Broncos in accordance to Jeremiah’s Contending checklist, this team has a number of directions they should be looking to go. On paper, perhaps the need for another ‘weapon’ is somewhat overblown.
The Broncos already do roster a promising young trio of offensive weapons in Lindsay, Sutton, and Fant. However, the latter two likely need to be supplemented with another weapon that can help Lock in the passing game and dictate coverage. With smoke coming out the Broncos will be targeting wide receivers early and often in the draft, it seems GM John Elway isn’t quite satisfied in the offensive playmaker department.
The offensive line is far less stable in terms of long-term building-block players. While Bolles and James will be the starting tackles going into next season barring something drastic happening, the Broncos likely only have Risner that can feasibly be written in pen as one of the three necessary trenchmen for the checklist. Here’s to hoping at least one of James or Bolles can really show they are worthy of being one of those needed pieces next season.
On defense, really the Broncos could use a blue-chip player anywhere. The pass rush will likely be solid at worst in 2020, but with Miller’s age and the uncertainty on the interior defensive line, landing a building block player that plays on the interior is in the cards.
The back seven has some talent as well, specifically at safety with Simmons and optimism surrounding Johnson at linebacker. However, middle-of-the-field coverage and speed at linebacker is sorely lacking, as is that a true stud at cornerback now that Chris Harris, Jr. is a free agent.
Final Tally & Conclusion
Bold is a ‘lock’ | Regular font is likely
QB: Lock
Offensive Weapon: Sutton, Lindsay, Fant
Offensive Line: Rinser (maybe Bolles/James? They are here in 2020 either way.)
Pass Rush: Miller, Chubb
Back Seven: Simmons, Johnson
That makes four boxes checked, if Simmons gets re-signed. For now, he's in the wind.
Never say never, but the Broncos are not likely to close the gap on the Chiefs this offseason. That's fine and really shouldn’t matter. Elway should simply focus on how he can make the 2020 Broncos better than the 2019 version.
Instead of worrying about how to surpass Kansas City in one offseason, Denver should look at the core of its roster and identify how it can best supplement the players it has that warrant being long-term building blocks.
With the most likely areas being targeted including wide receiver, offensive line, interior defensive line, and cornerback, as well as how the current free-agent landscape and the draft are projected, the Broncos should look to be aggressive pursuing a top-end cornerback or interior defensive lineman in free agency, while taking advantage of the talent at receiver and offensive tackle at the top of the draft.
In the end, it comes down to what opportunities are afforded, as well as just how good Fanigo and Lock can be together. With that said, the Broncos’ roster is close to completing Jeremiah’s 'Contending Roster' Checklist.
With a few additional good moves, the Broncos can not only contend for a playoff spot in 2020, but for years to come. Keep building that core, and let the chips fall where they may.
Follow Nick on Twitter @NickKendellMHH and @MileHighHuddle.
